Cofeed News: till February 2nd this week, edible palm oil at China’s ports has shrunk from 659,200 tonnes last week to 631,800 tonnes by 4.1% in stocks, but notably the figure is 4.9% higher than 602,200 tonnes the same week in last month with an increase of 29,600 tonnes; while stocks of industrial palm oil decrease from 85,000 tonnes to 78,600 tonnes on the week, with a reduction of 6,400 tonnes by 7.5%. Generally, domestic stocks of palm oil this week are a tad lower as compared to last week’s. Price gap between soybean oil and palm oil is still unreasonable though it settles at 425 yuan/tonne on February 2nd, which puts a cap on palm oil shipments. Truly, palm oil is still in demand, where February imports of palm oil of 24-degree melting point till this week are around 0.2 Mln tonnes, and estimated 0.25-0.3 Mln tonnes for March imports factored in import margins in February and March. All in all, domestic stocks of palm oil will probably rise when imports far exceed demand with demand going poorer and poorer.

                            Figure: Comparison of domestic palm oil stocks in recent years

    Imports of palm oil are estimated to be around 0.43-0.45 Mln tonnes for January import in 2018 (0.34-0.35 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.1-0.12 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), up 20,000 tonnes from last week; about 0.28-0.34 Mln tonnes for February import (0.18-0.21 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.10-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), increasing by 20,000 tonnes as compared to estimates last week; roughly 0.38-0.4 Mln tonnes for March import (0.25-0.3 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.1-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), growing by 10,000 tonnes from estimates last week. Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.