Comments: stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas till February 4th (week 5 of year 2018) fall sharply when Lunar New Year is around the corner, in detail, weekly stocks drop by 8.90% from 4,727,700 tonnes last week to 4,306,800 tonnes and 420,900 tonnes below last week, but the figure is still 16.61% higher than 3,693,500 tonnes year on year. Soybean stocks are likely to further edge lower next week as soybeans will mostly be imported in late February for the sake of Spring Festival holidays.

    Stocks of soybean meal fall further this week given that turnover and shipments go better than last week in time of stockpiling in spite of lowered operating rate, and its volume in outstanding contracts is seen increasing significantly when February comes. Till February 4th, total stocks in costal major areas settle at 879,300 tonnes on the week, down 8.81% or 84,920 tonnes from 964,220 tonnes a week ago, but it is 27.25% higher than 691,000 tonnes year on year. Meantime soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are increased to 5,312,600 tonnes from 4,726,100 tonnes last week with 12.41% or 586,500 tonnes higher, and it is 60.51% higher than the same week last year of 3,309,800 tonnes. On the whole, soybean meal stocks in next week will probably remain high irrespective of the falling tendency factored in possibly quickened shipments by buyers and falling operating rate in the following two weeks as the sixth week or the next week is the last time for stockpiling.

                   Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

                  Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

       Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years