Comments: soybean oil extends falls in stocks this week, but the falling pace is slower than before. Stockpiles of packing oils almost finish for Lunar New Year holidays are within 10 days when February comes, and markedly, demand in end users is quite light despite that there are still few demand for oils in bulk. According to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories till February 2nd has been shriveled from 1,501,100 tonnes to 1485,000 tonnes by 1.07% on the week and 16,100 tonnes below last week, and additionally, the figure is down 10% from 1,650,000 tonnes the same week last month with a reduction of 165,000 tonnes. Notably, soybean oil were around 1,060,700 tonnes on February 3rd last year, the time in Chinese Lunar New Year holidays.
Imports of soybeans in oil mills have been increasing with large soybean arrivals in recent months for profitable crush margins, but in real terms, about 120 vessels loaded with 7,839,500 tonnes of imported soybeans arrived at China’s ports in January 2018, according to Cofeed, down 11.27% as compared to 8,835,400 tonnes in December and lower than former estimates of 8,088,900 tonnes. That mainly results from 5 new vessels of soybeans but 7 delayed vessels in early expectation, therefore actual arrivals of soybeans are lower than expectation. And latest estimates of soybean arrivals in February are changed to 5.8 Mln tonnes from 5.9 Mln tonnes last week, 6.9 Mln tonnes for March imports from estimated 7 Mln tonnes last week. Generally speaking, operating rate remains high with full operation as far as possible seeing sufficient soybean supplies and large volume to be implemented in contracts. Moreover, national soybean crush this week keep at a high level though operating rate is a tad lower than last week, in detail, crush totals 1,907,000 tonnes (1,506,530 tonnes of soybean meal, 343,260 tonnes of soybean oil), down 4.41% or 88,050 tonnes from 1,995,050 tonnes attained in the week before. Soybean stocks in the days ahead may pile up based on increasing output and sluggish market demand after finished stockpiles in the run-up to holidays, and what is worse, soybean oil demand will go weaker even after the holidays, therefore, stock consumption will be troublesome.
Unit: 10,000 tonnes
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
Week 5
|
Week 4
|
Variation
|
Week 5
|
Week 4
|
Variation
|
Northeast China
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
0
|
6.85
|
7.75
|
-0.9
|
North China
|
27.94
|
27.95
|
-0.01
|
11.03
|
12.08
|
-1.05
|
Shandong
|
12.1
|
12.29
|
-0.19
|
6.47
|
6.8
|
-0.33
|
East China
|
47.84
|
48.6
|
-0.76
|
22.45
|
23.4
|
-0.95
|
Guangdong
|
15.5
|
16.2
|
-0.7
|
15.46
|
15.35
|
0.11
|
Guangxi
|
15.26
|
14.37
|
0.89
|
15.5
|
14
|
1.5
|
Fujian
|
7.47
|
7.45
|
0.02
|
3.65
|
4.55
|
-0.9
|
Henan
|
3.02
|
3.07
|
-0.05
|
0.68
|
1.36
|
-0.68
|
Sichuan
|
4.3
|
5.15
|
-0.85
|
2.6
|
3.09
|
-0.49
|
Others
|
10.87
|
10.83
|
0.04
|
1.57
|
1.62
|
-0.05
|
Total
|
148.5
|
150.11
|
-1.61
|
86.26
|
90
|
-3.74
|
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years