China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 8, 2018)
Cofeed News: till February 23rd this week, edible palm oil at China’s ports has risen from 642,400 tonnes the week before last to 677,400 tonnes by 5.4% in stocks, and the figure is 2.7% higher than 659,500 tonnes the same week in last month with an increase of 17,900 tonnes; besides, stocks of industrial palm oil increase from 71,000 tonnes to 71,700 tonnes on the week, with a rise of 700 tonnes by 0.9%. Generally, domestic stocks of palm oil pile up after holidays, especially in South China. Price gap between soybean oil and palm oil domestically is still unreasonable during Chinese holidays at 410 yuan/tonne-- a figure lower than normal level of 800 yuan/tonne, which subdues demand for palm oil spots. By and large, oil demand becomes poor in market after holidays, thus resulting in an unsatisfactory sale of palm oil in the marketplace. Therefore palm oil consumption mainly benefit from rigid demand, where March imports of palm oil of 24-degree melting point are probably around 0.25-0.3 Mln tonnes factored in import margins in March and buyers’ enthusiasm in buying. All in all, domestic stocks of palm oil will gradually rise when imports far exceed demand.
Figure: Comparison of domestic palm oil stocks in recent years
II．Arrivals
Imports of palm oil are estimated to be around 0.25-0.32 Mln tonnes for February import (0.15-0.22 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.10-0.11 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), down 20,000 tonnes as compared to estimates last week; roughly 0.38-0.4 Mln tonnes for March import (0.25-0.3 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.1-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), remained unchanged from estimates last week. Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.
