Today (on February 27th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean prices edged lower last night, the same trend going to soybean meal in Dalian Commodity Exchange today where domestic soybean meal spots mostly stall and go steady amid some fluctuations, yet turnover turns sluggish. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 3,000 to 3,070 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne in part as compared to yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,070 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,020-3,030 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,010-3,040 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,010-3,040 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,030-3,040 yuan/tonne). US soybean futures pare gains on account that long positions are closed and Brazilian soybean production is expected to hit a record high. Additionally, the plunge in pig prices before Chinese holidays result in sluggish pig raising for the time, which limits price upside of soybean meal spots and its turnover in recent days in the downstream marketplaces. Generally speaking, soybean meal stocks are slashed to 0.71 Mln tonnes due to a general machine halt during the holidays, besides, weather speculation goes forward as drought in Argentina are still severe, as a consequence, US soybeans and soybean meal spots remain strong. Therefore, buyers may as well stand by and make replenishment upon bargain hunting.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go steady amid some fluctuations, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,370-2,460 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 20-40 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,440 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 05-30 for basis; Fujian 2,460 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal for the moment is more likely to price up for Argentine drought has not yet relieved despite likely rising US soybean prices at any time. Meal supply will gradually be abundant in the wake of resumed operation in oil mills, but sales still take time. By and large, pressure will be seen when soybeans from South America rush to the market later and monthly soybean arrivals in April and May reach 9 Mln tonnes. That will weigh down soybean meal prices, and correspondingly drag down rapeseed meal. Buyers are not recommended to chase high but to maintain a proper inventory level upon bargain hunting.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are light. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 13,000-13,200 yuan/tonne; 13,700-13,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000-14,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 25,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 18,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB): the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,620 a tonne, and USD $1,780 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, both down 200 yuan/tonne as compared to yesterday; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. New-season fishmeal is on sale in Peru, and transaction prices are negotiable. But most fishmeal holders prefer to stand by for the moment, therefore, fishmeal market may remain stable.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, imported soybeans for distribution at Qingdao and Rizhao ports are mostly unquoted. Soybean arrivals in February and March are 5.56 Mln tonnes and 6.7 Mln tonnes respectively, significantly lower than former expectations due to strict inspection for impurities in US soybeans. The decrease in soybean arrivals boosted market confidence and accordingly, some imported soybeans price at around 3,700 yuan/tonne-- a price significantly higher than former抯. But notably, imported soybeans and domestic soybeans are basically equivalent in prices. Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation for port inspections, and in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply, market players are not optimistic about its performance even when trades are allowed at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.
Daily review on oils: US soybeans last night on CBOT edged lower for the sake of profits taking after soybeans reaching a high level, but continuous dry and hot weather in Argentine soybean growing areas threatened crop growth, thus resulting in a further rally for US soybean meal and oil. Accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange stall today, of which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots come down partly, yet turnover is still not much. Fundamental pressures from accumulating palm oil stocks and ample soybean oil supply may contribute to short-lived fluctuations in oils market. Besides, drought in Argentina has not yet alleviated though 15-mm rainfall is expected in the next few days, yet accordingly, the rainfall still fails to offset crop losses unless it reaches 100 mm or above, therefore US soybeans remain strong in performance. Generally speaking, oil prices may welcome a small rally for a time unless weather speculation in South China dies away for the reason that only 6.7 Mln tonnes of soybeans arrive at ports in March and machine start resumes in a slow pace when holidays just pass away even though soybean oil is almost reduced to 1.41 Mln tonnes in its stocks and that processors are inclined to hold out for high prices seeing a general market demand in recent two days. But notably, price decline of oils may come back if massive soybeans from South America arrive at ports, therefore, buyers had better not chase high.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for one-grade soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,630-5,760 yuan/tonne, most falling 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,730-5,740 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,630 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,230 to 5,320 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,310-5,320 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders stop to report; Zhangjiagang traders 5,280 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 5,230 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,260-5,270 yuan/tonne, keeping flat).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,250-6,460 yuan/tonne, some falling 20-30 yuan/tonne ( Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,330 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 1,805-120 for basis in March; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,350 yuan/tonne for GB grade-four rapeseed oil, falling 30 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed oil for a short term probably goes strong for Argentine drought has not yet relieved irrespective of likely rising US soybean prices at any time. Yet, domestic demand comes down significant after Chinese holidays for rapeseed oil is mainly consumed by end users before holidays. Additionally, rapeseed oil auction by State Reserves Bureau is now put into the market amid low operating rate and its counterparts--soybean oil and palm oil boast higher inventory levels than figures in the same period of former years, demonstrating oil glut for the moment. Therefore with all taken into consideration, rapeseed oil may vibrate time and again and fail to rebound a lot. Buyers had better not chase high.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain strong. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,890-1,990 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday, but with exclusion, starch and corn buying prices in Xinfeng, Shouguang-- a city of Shandong province-- are reduced to 1,950 yuna/tonne at 1:30 pm today, down 10 yuan/tonne. While the purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are revised up at 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), up 10 yuan/tonne against yesterday upon the lowest price. Corn at Bayuquan ports price up, among which drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) rise to1,850 yuan/tonne. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are 2,000 yuan/tonne, and 1,980-1,990 yuan/tonne upon transaction, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn supplying in corn belt remains few for farmers’ little incentives to sell out with a bullish attitude towards market though corn surplus is not not much, but on the other hand, deep processors in the downstream who have insufficient stockpiles in the run-up to holidays have seen a lower inventory level due to consumption during the holidays and most are inclined to lift corn prices to attract more supplying. Therefore, corn at coastal ports are seen to price up further for fewer con supplies. No doubt, with time going on, corn supply will again be abundant, but market players had better be caution about likely soaring corn prices since auction of stored corn hangs in doubt and fish breeding and poultry raising are still off-season though stocks consumption are mostly in large-scale feed sectors. In general, domestic corn is provisionally expected to be strong in performance and be high in prices in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to corn fundamental and political changes.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum further prices up where main ports price at 1,920-1,960 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,960 yuan/tonne, but 1940 yuan/tonne for one newly vessel of raw sorghum in bulk; Nantong 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,940 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for imported barley increase, about1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,830-1,840 yuan/tonne, rising by 10 yuan/tonne; Shekou port in Guangdong 1,830 yuan/tonne). Grains market in these days are fueled by rising corn prices in producing areas. Additionally, a campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has recently been launched by China’s Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum, resulting in market worries about soaring import costs of American sorghum later. Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods in hope for higher prices and in case of unavailable supply of lower costs, under such circumstances, sorghum overall may go strong till any news are released-- sorghum and barley prices go up at some ports today. Market players can wait for new information for guidance.
(USD $1=CNY 6.31)