Soybean and Soybean Meal Stocks and Contracts Weekly (Week 8, 2018)
Comments: stocks of imported soybeans at China’s ports pile up significantly due to quite a lot of soybean arrivals and impressive declines of operating rate during Chinese holidays. Till February 23rd (week 8 of year 2018), weekly stocks in China’s major coastal areas have totaled 5,178,000 tonnes, rising by 15.11% or 782,500 tonnes as compared to 4,395,500 tonnes in week 6 ended on Feb. 9th, and its stocks are up 27.21% from 3,769,200 tonnes the same week a year ago. By and large, soybean stocks are likely to edge lower next week though operation are resumed in oil mills.
Stocks of soybean meal this week keep flat as compared to the figures before holidays, resulting from a machine halt in oil mills and delayed shipments, and its volume in outstanding contracts is seen dropping slightly. Till February 23rd, total stocks in costal major areas settle at 710,200 tonnes on the week, slightly down 0.97% or 6,900 tonnes from 717,100 tonnes in week 6 ended on Feb. 9th and down 19.13% from 878,100 tonnes year on year. Meantime soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are down to 4,617,900 tonnes from 4,758,300 tonnes last week with 3.24% or 140,400 tonnes below, but up 32.26% from the same week last year of 3,127,800 tonnes. On the whole, soybean meal stocks in next week will probably be lower factored in a short peak-time replenishment after impressive rises on the futures when holidays end, but once operating rate resumes to a exceedingly high, stocks may edge up afterwards.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
