Today(on March 5th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last Friday night rose marginally, the same trend going to soybean meal today on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Accordingly, prices of soybean meal spots today are mostly stable amid some gains, yet turnover turns light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,120 to 3,250 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne partly against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,250 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,200-3,230 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,210-3,220 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,220-3,250 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,230-3,250 yuan/tonne). US soybean futures continue to jump, fueled by worries about production losses in parched Argentina. In general, soybean meal prices up further with the help of processors?support, lower-than-expected soybean processing rate and soybean arrivals in February-to-March period. Furthermore, such rising tendency will continue unless weather speculation for Argentina finally fades away. But notably, a short-lived technical adjustment may come about after constant rises for monthly soybean arrivals in the second quarter may reach over 9 Mln tonnes and consumption in the end users is quite low when pig raising is in the red and in off-season period. Therefore, buyers had better stand by if replenishment is made last week or make replenishment upon bargain hunting instead of chasing high.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go steady amid some fluctuations, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,550-2,640 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 30-50 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,600 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 2,640 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,600 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal stocks in South China last week decrease to 45,000 tonnes by 1% as compared to the week before last, and with persisting weather speculation and strong performance of soybean meal, rapeseed meal in a short term is more likely to rise. Turnover is still not much amid price upside since demand is sluggish for the moment irrespective of sufficient rapeseed supplies in oil mills. Buyers may as well stand by rather than chase high.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are light. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 13,000-13,200 yuan/tonne; 13,700-13,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000-14,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till March 1st, about 80,853 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 15.11% of total quota--535,000 tonnes-- this season, among which 454,924 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 26,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 20,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB): the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,600 a tonne, and USD $1,760 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, both down 20 yuan/tonne as compared to last week; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal prices in the outer pare gains as market players are basically positive about new-season fish sources and quotas seeing good presales for the moment. However, relatively low inventory levels domestically support fishmeal prices, thus its prices for the moment will probably be stable.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, imported soybeans for distribution at Qingdao and Rizhao ports remain unquoted. Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation for port inspections in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply. market players are not optimistic about its performance even when trades are allowed at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.
Daily review on oils: driven by robust export and expected yield reduction in Argentina, US soybeans last Friday night ended high, but in comparison, US soybean meal and oil were dragged down by long positions closing and dumping. Accordingly, soybean oil futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange today rise mildly, but palm oil is pressured down by rising export duties in India, among which prices of domestic soybean oil spots encounter variations in part but prices of palm oil mostly suffer great falls. Turnover is still not much. Argentina’s soybean production may plunge to 44 Mln tonnes, far from production of 57 Mln tonnes last year when drought spell further wreaks havoc on soybean crop growth in Argentina, therefore US soybeans overall remain strong factored in robust export demand. Additionally, soybean oil keeps descending in stocks when soybean processing in oil mills starts in a slow pace but demand presents good upon lower oil prices, in this way, oils now sow strong performance in market with weather speculation lingering on amid little chance for price downside. Notwithstanding, considerable supply pressure on oils will not be alleviated at once if processing rate in oil mills later keeps exceedingly high, backed by monthly soybean arrivals of over 9 Mln tonnes during April-to-June period. Besides, price gap between palm oil and soybean oil will further enlarged given that palm oil stocks keep accumulating in China and its futures on Malaysia Derivatives Exchange (BMD) are weighed down by rising export duties in India. Buyers had better hold a wait-and-see attitude for the present.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,700-5,830 yuan/tonne, part of which fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,820-5,830 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,820 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,830 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,700-5,720 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,190 to 5,280 yuan/tonne, falling 20-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,260-5,270 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders stop to report; Zhangjiagang traders 5,280 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 5,190-5,210 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,260 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil come down, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,240-6,450 yuan/tonne, down 30-50 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,400 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1805-100 for March delivery). Declining stocks in both South China and East China boost rapeseed oil in market, in detail, rapeseed oil in South China is trimmed by 13% on the week to 40,000 tonnes in stocks, and that in East China plunges to 162,000 tonnes by 4% week on week. In addition, rising US soybean prices helped by parched Argentina further give supports to rapeseed oil prices. On the very note, rapeseed oil will be more likely to rebound with weather speculation for Argentina lingering on.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn continues to price up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,920-2,000 yuan/tonne, up 10-40 yuan/tonne from last Friday. While the purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning rise by 15-20 yuan/tonne as compared to last Saturday at 1,885-1,920 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-710 g/L). While drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan ports prices at 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne as compared to last Saturday. Corn spot prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are raised to 2,010-2,030 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Corn surplus in northeastern corn belt basically bottoms out for corn supplying is quite few, contributed by farmers’ and traders’ incentives to hold onto goods in North China, but on the other hand, deep processors and small-to-medium feed sectors in the downstream are strongly inclined to make replenishment in case of lower inventory levels, especially, businesses in Shandong deep processors gradually raise corn buying prices during weekends with some businesses pricing over 1 yuan mark. Meantime, corn prices at northern and southern ports rise significantly, therefore for a short time, corn prices will probably go up. But notably, attention should be paid to later political changes in case of any risks when corn auctions are under way locally and large-scale auctions are expected to start in March-to-April period.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum rise steadily which settle at 1,930-1,960 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin offers 1,960 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,930-1,940 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report). At the same time, prices for imported barley increase, about 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,870-1,880 yuan/tonne, rising by 20 yuan/tonne). Grains market is fueled by rising corn prices in producing areas. Additionally, imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China’s Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum. Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods in hope for higher prices and in case of unavailable supply of lower costs and in view of upside-down sorghum prices at home and abroad, under such circumstances, sorghum overall may go strong till any news are released-- sorghum at some ports today prices up further. Market players can wait for new information for guidance.
(USD $1=CNY 6.338)