Comments: stocks of soybean in oil mills continue to pile up due to quite a lot of soybean arrivals, lower-than-expected soybean processing rate and soybean crushing. Till March 2nd (week 9 of year 2018), weekly stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have totaled 5,647,200 tonnes, rising by 9.06% or 469,200 tonnes as compared to 5,178,000 tonnes in week 8 ended on Feb. 23rd, and its stocks are up 45.89% from 3,870,700 tonnes the same week a year ago. By and large, soybean stocks are likely to edge lower amid small soybean arrivals for March delivery even though processing rate may be raised significantly .

    Stocks of soybean meal this week edge lower as sales are good irrespective of rising prices for spots after a sharp rise of futures, and its volume in outstanding contracts is also seen jumping by leaps. Till March 2nd, total stocks in costal major areas settle at 663,900 tonnes on the week, with a reduction of 46,300 tonnes by 6.51% from 710,200 tonnes in week 8 ended on Feb. 23rd and down 23.82% from 871,600 tonnes year on year. But in comparison, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are significantly increased from 4,617,900 tonnes to 6,177,800 tonnes by 33.77% or 1,559,900 tonnes above, and up 38.93% from the same week last year of 4,446,600 tonnes. On the whole, soybean meal stocks in late March may probably pile up on account that most buyers basically finish inventory replenishment the time impressive rises are seen on the futures, as a consequence, stocks will be consumed in a slower pace dragged by exceedingly high operating rate in the next two weeks.

                  Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

                Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years