Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans ended high overnight, but Dalian meal today fluctuates in a tight range, of which domestic soybean meal spots are mostly stable amid some fluctuations, yet turnover turns light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,120 to 3,250 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne partly against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,230 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,180-3,200 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,210-3,220 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,220-3,230 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,230-3,250 yuan/tonne). US dollar gains strength when pig rising is in the red after great tumbles, consumption of soybean meal is not much in off-season aquaculture and businesses in the downstream which finished replenishment last week are not likely to buy in more, correspondingly, meal futures slow down the growing pace, and with all taken into consideration, soybean meal spots in a short term may encounter changes provided if technical adjustments come after continuous rises of futures. Notwithstanding, the ongoing drought spell in Argentina has put its soybean output to a six-year low, and to be honest, its rival US soybean will keep rising on futures with such weather speculation going on. Soybean amounts in outstanding contracts now increase greatly by 33% year on year, but its stocks in coastal areas now plunge to 0.66 Mln tonnes by 6% on the week. Generally, soybean meal in near term will probably be strong and be hard to fall a lot if price downside comes, helped by processors’ incentives to hold out for higher prices. Therefore buyers for the moment had better stand by and make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal are basically stable, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,550-2,640 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,600 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,640 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,600 yuan/tonne). With weather speculation going on, rapeseed meal recently has also been bolstered by robust performance of soybean meal, but on the other hand, its price upside may also be dragged by sufficient rapeseed and soybean meal supllies, in detail, turnover of rapeseed meal is still not much after price upside in off-season period and soybean meal keeps accumulating backed by exceedingly high processing capacity and more than 9 Mln tonnes of monthly soybean arrivals in April-to-June period. Buyers had better hold a wait-and-see attitude for the present instead of chasing high. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are light. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 13,000-13,200 yuan/tonne; 13,700-13,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000-14,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till March 4th, about 81,785 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 15.29% of total quota--535,000 tonnes-- this season, among which 453,125 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 26,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 19,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers in foreign trading(FOB): the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,570 a tonne, and USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, both down 30 yuan/tonne as compared to yesterday; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Although prices of Peru’s fishmeal in the presale period edge lower, fishmeal holders still prefer to stand by seeing deficient stocks domestically and tight supplies of high-quality fishmeal, therefore, price variations are limited. 

    Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, imported soybeans for distribution at Qingdao and Rizhao ports remain unquoted. Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation for port inspections in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply. market players are not optimistic about its performance even when trades are allowed at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans last night rose further as traders’ worries persisted about crop losses and dented export in parched Argentina, yet by contrast, US soybeans were pressured down by active arbitrary of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. Accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange today encounter fluctuations, among which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots are basically stable amid small fluctuations, and turnover is still not much. The reason for slowed US soybean rises is that US dollar gains strength and profit taking is started in time of continuous rises, but on the other hand, Argentina’s soybean output is estimated to reach a six-year low due to dryness, therefore US soybean overall remains strong. Soybean oil now plunges to 1.39 Mln tonnes amid processors’ mindset for higher prices and relatively slower soybean processing capacity after holidays, therefore oils for the present are probably stable and not likely to fall a lot. Notwithstanding, fundamental pressure on oils will not be released if processing rate in oil mills later keeps exceedingly high, backed by monthly soybean arrivals of over 9 Mln tonnes during April-to-June period. Besides, pressure will be going on given that palm oil stocks keep accumulating in China and export duties for palm oil are raised in India. Buyers had better hold a wait-and-see attitude for the present and be cautious about oil market in the medium and long run for future upside is somewhat capped and likely decline may come about.  

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,700-5,840 yuan/tonne, part of which fluctuate by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,830-5,840 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,840 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,840 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,700-5,710 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,230-5,300 yuan/tonne, some increasing by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,290-5,300 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders fail to report; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,280 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 5,230 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,270 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne).  

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil are basically stable, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,240-6,450 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,350 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1805-100 for March delivery). Rapeseed oil prices further go up as severer and severer drought in Argentina’s soybean growing areas boost US soybeans, furthermore, its price upside will continue till the end of weather speculation when rapeseed oil stocks in South China and East China both come down amid dropping soybean oil stocks. But notably, supply pressure will be hard to alleviate when monthly soybean arrivals in the second quarter may be over 9 Mln tonnes and soybeans auctioned are projected to put into market in late May.  

    Daily review on corn: today, part of domestic corn prices continue to go up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,920-2,020 yuan/tonne, some up 10-30 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,900-1,930 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-710 g/L), up 10-15 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are raised to 2,050 yuan/tonne, and 2,030-2,040 yuan/tonne upon transaction, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn surplus in northeastern corn belt basically bottoms out for corn supply is quite tight, contributed by farmers’ incentives to hold onto goods in North China and market players’ bullish attitude toward the situation, but on the other hand, deep processors and some small-to-medium feed sectors in the downstream are strongly inclined to raise corn prices in order to make replenishment after Chinese holidays, for example, some businesses in Shandong gradually raise corn buying prices to 2,000 yuan/tonne or above and even nearly 2,100 yuan/tonne at southern coastal ports. On the whole, corn prices will keep rising in time of tight supply unless large-scale auctions are launched by State Reserves Bureau, therefore attention should be paid to later political changes. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum further prices up where main ports price at 1,950-1,970 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,960 yuan/tonne; Qingdao 2,000 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,950 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,960-1,970 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for imported barley increase, about 1,860-1,880 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,880 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou 1,860 yuan/tonne). Grains market is further fueled by rising corn prices in producing areas. Additionally, imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China’s Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum. Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods in hope for higher prices and in case of unavailable supply of lower costs and in view of upside-down sorghum prices at home and abroad, under such circumstances, sorghum overall may go strong till any news are released-- sorghum at some ports today prices up further. Market players can wait for new information for guidance.