Today is 03/29/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on March 8th

2018-03-08 www.cofeed.com
  Today(on March 8th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last night on CBOT pared gains, accordingly, Dalian meal today also falls, with which domestic soybean meal spots decline in part. Yet, turnover is still not much though some forward lower basis may attract deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,140 to 3,240 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,240 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,165-3,210 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,170-3,180 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,220-3,230 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,210-3,240 yuan/tonne). Soybean meal spot prices vibrate in a tight range following US soybeans since technical adjustments come before USDA report in wake of one-week soaring tendency. Accordingly, soybean meal consumption is not much when pig rising becomes unprofitable after great tumbles and aquaculture is in off-season period, and what’s worrisome is that monthly soybean arrivals in April-to-June period may probably reach 9Mln tonnes. Whereas, market calculates that Argentina’s soybean output estimates may be seen lowered in USDA report, if proven to be certain, US soybeans will keep strong overall with persisting weather speculation. That will also limit price decline of soybean meal spots, or even boost the prices after short-lived fluctuations. Wisely, buyers may as well maintain a safe inventory level or stand by if they have stocks at hand rather than chase high, and pay attention to tomorrow’s USDA report. for monthly soybean arrivals in the second quarter may reach over 9 Mln tonnes and consumption in the end users is quite low when pig raising is in the red and in off-season period. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,500-2,640 yuan/tonne, some down 20 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,560 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,640 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,600 yuan/tonne). The ongoing drought spell in Argentina has caused a significant reduction of soybean output, and to be honest, its rival US soybean will keep on strong momentum in market, consequently giving support to rapeseed meal prices. Nevertheless, poor demand and over 9 Mln tonnes of monthly soybean arrivals during April-to-June period will otherwise put a cap on its price upside, therefore attention should be paid to the USDA report tonight. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 13,000-13,200 yuan/tonne; 13,700-13,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000-14,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 27,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 20,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,570 per tonne, USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Market players mostly switch to bearish stances under the impact of lowered fishmeal prices in the outer, yet holders now prefer to hold out for higher prices in light of tight supply, therefore, fishmeal in market shorter term may keep stable.   

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, imported soybeans for distribution at Qingdao and Rizhao ports remain unquoted. Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation for port inspections in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply. market players are not optimistic about its performance even when trades are allowed at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals. 

    Daily review on oils: position adjustments become active as March supply/demand report is only expected to release tonight by US Department of Agriculture, as a consequence, beans on CBOT last night were all dragged down amid falling crude oil. Correspondingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange further pare gains today, with which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots go down. Turnover is expected to be less as most buyers made replenishment yesterday. Notably, US soybeans and domestic oils both pare gains for one reason that technical adjustments come after soaring beans last week and for another that scattered rains are expected in Argentina in the following two weeks. However, oils in market are not likely to fall a lot till the end of Argentina’s weather speculation for the haunting drought spell has wreaked havoc on the soybean production and market calculates that Argentina’s soybean output estimates may be seen lowered in USDA report. Additionally, price rally may come again if another wave of weather speculation is ignited. Buyers may as well make replenishment upon bargain hunting when future decline goes steady. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,600-5,780 yuan/tonnes, decreasing by 20-60 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,750-5,760 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,760-5,770 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,600 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,100 to 5,200 yuan/tonne, falling 40-80 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,190-5,200 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders stop to report; Zhangjiagang traders 5,200 yuan/tonne, down 80 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 5,100 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,220 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop steadily, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,250-6,440 yuan/tonne, some down 30-60 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,300 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1805-60 for April delivery). Rapeseed oil prices in a short time will not fall a lot as severer drought in Argentina’s soybean growing areas boosts US soybeans, furthermore, its price upside will continue till the end of weather speculation when rapeseed oil and soybean oil stocks in coastal areas both come down. Attention should be paid to the USDA report tonight.  

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn continues to price up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,940-2,080 yuan/tonne, most up 20-40 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,900-1,930 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-710 g/L), being unchanged from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,920 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are raised to 2,060 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Corn surplus in corn belt basically bottoms out for corn supply is quite tight, contributed by farmers’ and traders’ incentives to hold onto goods under the impact of “cheap sale” but on the other hand, most deep processors which have a low inventory level and some feed sectors in the sale areas which have rigid demand for corn further are inclined to raise corn prices to attract more corn supplying. In addition, corn consumption is probably boosted as Feed Subsidy Notice is released in Jilin and subsidy for northeastern deep processors is expected to lifted. In the short term, corn prices will keep rising in time of tight supply, but policies about large-scale corn dumping, the most bearish factor, will markedly put the prices down, especially, Sinograin in Heilongjiang is projected to sell 0.34 tonnes of corn in mid-March. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum further turn stable where main ports price at 1,950-1,970 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,960 yuan/tonne; Qingdao 2,000 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,950 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,960-1,970 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for imported go steady, about 1,860-1,900 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,900 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 1,860 yuan/tonne). Grains market is further fueled by rising corn prices in producing areas. Additionally, imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China’s Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum. Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods in hope for higher prices and in case of unavailable supply of lower costs and in view of upside-down sorghum prices at home and abroad, under such circumstances, grains overall may go strong. Yet notably, market buyers are probably inclined to stand by when grains prices reach a fresh high, then price upside of spots may be capped. Market players can wait for new information for guidance. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.33)