Comments: stocks of soybean in oil mills this week are seen lower owing to normal processing capacity. Till March 9th (week 10 of year 2018), weekly stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have downsized to 5,049,500 tonnes, a reduction of 10.58% or 597,700 tonnes as compared to 5,647,200 tonnes in week 9, but beyond doubt, its stocks are still up 45.10% from 3,480,000 tonnes the same week a year ago. By and large, soybean stocks are likely to edge lower in the days ahead, helped by good crush margins and lifted operating rate.

    With lifted soybean processing capacity, stocks of soybean meal this week are a tad higher when its sales are also markedly subdued by limited rally in future market, besides its volume in outstanding contracts is also seen falling. Till March 9th, its total stocks in costal major areas settle at 707,900 tonnes from 663,900 tonnes on the week, with a rise of 44,000 tonnes by 6.62%, but notably down 3.00% from 729,800 tonnes year on year. In comparison, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are curtailed, generally falling 249,900 tonnes or 4.04% to 5,927,900 tonnes from 6,177,800 tonnes, yet the figures are still up 40.73% from 4,212,200 tonnes year on year. On the whole, soybean meal stocks in next two weeks may probably pile up to 1.88 Mln and 1.96 Mln tonnes, respectively, backed by lifted operating rate, and additionally buyers’ fewer and fewer inclination to buy when spot prices of meal drop off will further add to its stocks.

                  Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

                Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

          Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years