Today (on March 13th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans overnight rose midly, the same trend going to Dalian soybean meal. Accordingly, soybean meal spots mostly turn stable amid some rises, yet turnover upon lower prices turns better. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,100 to 3,170 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,160 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,110-3,150 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,100-3,130 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,150-3,170 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,150-3,170 yuan/tonne). US soybean futures on CBOT are supported and fueled by technical buying and uncertain Argentina’s soybean production amid haunting weather spell. Additionally, soybean meal supplies in North China recently have seen tight for haze there forces part of oil mills to shut down temporarily for the sake of environment protection, especially during the two sessions (NPC & CPPCC), thus boosting soybean meal spots. But on the other hand, US soybeans fall into the cart in China-US trade disputes and soybean meal consumption is still not much when pig rising is no longer cost-effective after great tumbles in its prices and aquaculture is still in a off-season period, eventually sending soybean meal stocks to pile up. According to Cofeed latest survey, soybean meal stocks increase to 710,000 tonnes by 8% on the week helped by exceedingly high operating rate in the next two weeks, whereas it may probably vibrate in sessions following futures in a shorter term when stocks upside reaches the ceiling. Buyers had better make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting instead of chasing high for soybean meal performance in the medium and long term requires alertness.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,500-2,600 yuan/tonne, some rising 10-20 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,500 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,600 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,480 yuan/tonne). Expected rains in Argentina weigh on US soybean futures, and demand for rapeseed meal is still fragile irrespective of sufficient rapeseed and lifted operating rate. In addition, market pressure will be obvious after imported soybeans at ports become abundant in the second quarter. But significantly, rapeseed meal is not likely to tumble, but probably to price up if Argentina’s weather speculation comes again.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 13,000-13,200 yuan/tonne; 13,700-13,900 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000-14,200 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,900 yuan/tonne; 13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till March 11th, about 86,833 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 16.23% of total quota--535,000 tonnes-- this season, among which 448,167 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 30,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 22,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,600 per tonne, USD $1,760 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Manufacturers at home and abroad now stay on the sidelines, correspondingly, price volatility is limited.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, imported soybeans for distribution at Qingdao and Rizhao ports remain unquoted. Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation for port inspections in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply. market players are not optimistic about its performance even when trades are allowed at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.
Daily review on oils: US soybeans on CBOT last night were boosted by technical buying, accordingly, domestic soybean oil spots are mostly price up and palm oil spots run steady. Sales upon lower prices turn better, but are still not much. Honestly, trade disputes between China and the US may probably subdue China’s demand for US soybeans, yet with estimated soybean production losses in Argentina, US soybeans in a shorter term may vibrate in sessions, and on the whole, run strong amid ongoing weather speculations before Argentina’s soybean production is set-- generally in early April. Sales of oils upon lower prices are good amid crushers’ inclination to hold out higher prices for traders in the midstream and downstream are active in inventory replenishment these days. What’s more, soybean supplies are sufficient for larger quantities of soybeans are only expected to arrive at ports in the second quarter, thereby soybean oil also increases to 1.39 Mln tonnes when operating rate in the following two week reached extraordinarily high. On the whole, oil spots will not rise or fall a lot, but to vibrate with futures amid oil glut and limited vitality to rebound. Buyers may be wise to make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting instead of chasing high.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,580-5,730 yuan/tonne, some growing by 10-30 yuan/tonne while some down 20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,730-5,740 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,740 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,750 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,580 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,050-5,170 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating 40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,130 yuan/tonne, keeping flat; Rizhao traders 5,170 yuan/tonne, a reduction of 40 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,150 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,050 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,150 yuan/tonne, keeping flat).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices up, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,270-6,450 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,250 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1805-60 for April delivery). As rapeseed oil sold in the year earlier flows into the market in a slower pace, its futures today go up, also bolstered by falling stocks in coastal areas, yet the future rises are somewhat subdued by overall oil glut when soybean oil stocks are rising impressively based on surprisingly high operating rate. On the whole, rapeseed oil in a shorter term may vibrate in line with futures.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices continue to pare gains in part. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,930-2,060 yuan/tonne, some down 40 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,870-1,900 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-710 g/L), being unchanged from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,910 yuan/tonne, being unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 2,020-2,030 yuan/tonne, remaining flat from yesterday. News about reserved corn selling goes about, in detail, about 6-7 Mln tonnes of corn may be sold to market nationwide in line with market trend, and meantime corn selling targeted and auctioned may be launched in late March. But notably, corn market is in the soup as traders are eager to sell and at the same time, corn distributed to businesses becomes more and more with buying prices decreasing by 30-40 yuan/tonne. Shorter term, corn prices may fall in a steady pace, and its decline is probably capped as market sentiment may be affected when corn surplus available in market becomes fewer and fewer and policies about corn auction have not yet released officially.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum further turns stable after gains where main ports price at 1,960-1,990 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,990 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,970 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,960-1,970 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for imported barley keep firm, about 1,860-1,910 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou 1,860 yuan/tonne). Corn prices in these days pare gains further under the impact of policy news, as a result, sorghum and barley, alternatives for corn feed are also under pressure in marketplace. Additionally, imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China’s Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum. Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods in hope for higher prices and in case of unavailable supply of lower costs and in view of upside-down sorghum prices at home and abroad, and with long and short positions mixed, sorghum and barley overall may not rise or fall a lot but to keep stable. Market players can wait for new information for guidance.
(USD $1=CNY 6.33)