According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 10 (till March 9th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit：10,000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
|
Week 10
|
Week 9
|
Variation
|
Week 10
|
Week 9
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
3.38
|
2.9
|
0.48
|
7.05
|
5.75
|
1.3
|
|
North China
|
27.07
|
27.14
|
-0.07
|
18.4
|
15.16
|
3.24
|
|
Shandong
|
9.89
|
9.59
|
0.3
|
5.246
|
4.96
|
0.286
|
|
East China
|
44.5
|
45.25
|
-0.75
|
27.45
|
24.8
|
2.65
|
|
Guangdong
|
16.745
|
17.555
|
-0.81
|
16.687
|
16.085
|
0.602
|
|
Guangxi
|
13.84
|
13.76
|
0.08
|
13.28
|
13.95
|
-0.67
|
|
Fujian
|
6.4
|
6.3
|
0.1
|
4.25
|
4.5
|
-0.25
|
|
Henan
|
3.18
|
3.265
|
-0.085
|
0.84
|
0.59
|
0.25
|
|
Sichuan
|
4.46
|
4.3
|
0.16
|
3.19
|
3.1
|
0.09
|
|
Others
|
9.7
|
9.42
|
0.28
|
1.14
|
1.01
|
0.13
|
|
Total
|
139.165
|
139.48
|
-0.315
|
97.533
|
89.905
|
7.628
|
Comments: though soybean oil extends falls in stocks this week, stocks are only a tad lower than last week’s for the falling pace is somewhat slowed and according to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories till March 9th has shriveled to 1,391,650 tonnes from 1,394,800 tonnes on the week by 0.23% and 3,150 tonnes below by comparison. Additionally, the figure is down 4.68% from 1,460,000 tonnes the same week last month with a reduction of 68,350 tonnes, but up 23.15% or 261,650 tonnes above as compared to 1,130,000 tonnes on a year-on-year basis. On the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years are around 972,500 tonnes.
Since operating rate is generally lifted in China’s oil mills this week after Chinese New Year with soybean processing capacity basically going right, national soybean crush now amounts to 1,804,200 tonnes (1,434,339 tonnes of soybean meal, 324,756 tonnes of soybean oil), up 25.18% or 363,000 tonnes above from 1,441,200 tonnes last week, according to Cofeed. Meantime, soybean processing capacity utilization is enhanced to 52.83%, 10.63 percentage points higher than 42.20% last week. On the whole, weekly crush in the following two weeks may be around 1.88 Mln tonnes and 1.96 Mln tonnes respectively in wake of lifted operating rate, backed by good crush margins and rising soybean meal prices domestically. Under such circumstances, soybean oil stocks later are only expected to pile up further rather than go down, also contributed by increasing soybean oil output.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
