Today (on March 15th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans continued to tumble overnight, the same trend going to soybean meal today on DCE. Domestic soybean meal spots are also weighed down with futures today, yet turnover presents poor. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,060 to 3,130 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,140 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,075-3,130 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,070-3,080 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,130-3,140 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,120-3,130 yuan/tonne). News released in Acreage Survey Results 2018 shows that US soybean acreage this year will probably be as high as 92.1 Mln acres, an significant increase of nearly 2 Mln acres from year 2017. That increased acreage estimates and persisting concerns about China-US trade disputes render the US soybeans to drop sharply. In addition, soybean meal consumption is still low given that pig rising is in the red and aquaculture is still in a off-season period, in detail, pigs amounts in February are down 1.5% on the month and 4.7% year on year, according to Ministry of Agriculture. Such consumption capacity fails to offset burdensome stocks, therefore soybean meal spots are pressured down. Nevertheless, its prices are not likely to fall a lot unless Argentina's soybean production is set and weather disruption dies away, therefore, on the whole, soybean meal may pare gains in line with futures or even go up provided if weather disruption comes again. Buyers may be wise to make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting when future decline goes steady.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal decline, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,460-2,510 yuan/tonne with a drop of 20-40 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,460 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,510 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,420 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne). US soybeans last night tumbled factored in increased US soybean acreage estimates in Allendale's survey, correspondingly, domestic meal today also falls substantially after low opens. Demand of rapeseed meal is still poor despite lifted rapeseed processing capacity, thus under such bearish factors, rapeseed meal in a near future probably vibrates tracking futures unless weather speculation in Argentina comes to an end.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal drop steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,800-13,000 yuan/tonne; 13,500-13,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800-14,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 12,700 yuan/tonne and 13,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all down 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Port stocks: Hangpu has 31,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 22,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spot offers in foreign trading (FOB) drop steadily: the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,570 a tonne, and USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, both down 30 yuan/tonne as compared to yesterday; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,850 per tonne, USD $1,980 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Marketer insiders mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude towards fishmeal market at home seeing resources of Peru's anchovy remain unclear, consequently, price variation keeps in a tight range.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, imported soybeans for distribution at Qingdao and Rizhao ports remain unquoted. Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation for port inspections in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply. market players are not optimistic about its performance even when trades are allowed at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.
Daily review on oils: US soybeans last night fell significantly, dragged down both by active technical selling and by a record-high US soybean acreage estimates this year, and meantime US soybean meal and oil also ended low. Accordingly, oil futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange today drop across the board, with which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots come down, yet turnover turns light. According to Allendale, a firm engaged in market strategies and analysis, news released in its Acreage Survey Results 2018 shows that US soybean acreage this year will probably be as high as 92.1 Mln acres, an significant increase of nearly 2 Mln acres from year 2017. That increased acreage estimates and persisting concerns about China-US trade disputes render the US soybeans to drop sharply. Fundamental pressure lingers on when supply of oils overwhelms demand overall amid accumulating soybean oil stocks and exceedingly high operating rate in oil mills, therefore the market outlook is not such optimistic latter. Sales, on the other hand, turns better in recent days after price decline, and with weather spell lurking on the way before the Argentina's soybean production is set, oil spots in short term may be limited to fall. Buyers are wise to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy or maintain a light inventory level for many uncertainties remain in market.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,570-5,730 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,720-5,730 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,570-5,580 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,050 to 5,200 yuan/tonne, falling 20-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,130-5,140 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders 5,200 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,150 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 5,050-5,070 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,150 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices down, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,290-6,440 yuan/tonne, down 60-80 yuan/tonne from yesterday (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,320 yuan/tonne, down 90 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers basis 1,809-200 for May delivery; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,360 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne). US soybeans last night were weighed down owing to increased US soybean acreage estimates in Allendale's survey-- an growth of 2 Mln acres this year to 92.1 Mln acres, and haunting concerns about China-U.S. trade, correspondingly, domestic oil futures today also pare gains. Soybean oil stocks pile up based on high operating rate in the following two weeks and sufficient soybeans, especially, soybean arrivals in the second quarter will be large. Meantime, rapeseed processing is also advanced, and in this case, rapeseed oil prices are pressured down amid overall oil glut, yet rapeseed oil prices will not fall a lot but to vibrate in frequent sessions with futures when Argentina's weather spell continues.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable amid some decline, yet the falling pace is obviously slowed down. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,930-2,060 yuan/tonne, some down 4-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,850-1,880 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-710 g/L), keep unchanged from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,890 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are lowered to 1,990-2,000 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Provincial grain reserves have been put into the market one after another, particularly, about 148,000 tonnes of corn flows into market this week. Consequently, domestic corn prices fall dramatically in these days, also contributed by spreading news about reserved corn rotating out and auction and strong incentives of traders to sell goods in bearish stances. Whereas, corn prices are not to fall impressively for corn surplus available for market trade becomes fewer and fewer when news about corn auction has not yet officially released. In general, corn prices overall will be lowered when reserved corn is put into market in large quantities, thus attention should be paid to official news about corn auction, time, floor prices and the like.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum further prices up where some ports price at 2,020-2,050 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,020 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,000-2,050 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report). At the same time, prices for imported barley keep firm, about 1,860-1,910 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou 1,860 yuan/tonne). Imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China's Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum and import costs keep increasing, especially for April delivery. Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods in hope for higher prices and in case of unavailable supply of lower costs and in view of upside-down sorghum prices at home and abroad, and with long and short positions mixed, sorghum at some ports prices up further. Corn prices in these days pare gains further under the impact of policy news, as a result, sorghum and barley, alternatives for corn feed are also under pressure in marketplace, but overall sorghum and barley may go strong.
(USD $1=CNY 6.32)