Comments: stocks of soybean in oil mills this week fall substantially owing to exceedingly high operating rate. Till March 16th (week 11 of year 2018), weekly stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have downsized to 4,255,900 tonnes , a reduction of 15.71% or 793,600 tonnes as compared to 5,049,500 tonnes in week 10, but beyond doubt, its stocks are still up 25.20% from 3,399,200 tonnes the same week a year ago. By and large, soybean crush may plunge to be around 1.73 Mln tonnes next week for a general overhaul in some oil mills will continue half or one month from Mid-to-late March, in this case, soybean stocks next week are likely to edge lower .

   

    With lifted soybean processing capacity, stocks of soybean meal this week pile up further when most buyers in the downstream have finished inventory replenishment with turnover mostly upon outstanding contracts, and in consequence, its volume in outstanding contracts is seen falling. Till March 16th, its total stocks in costal major areas settle at 799,900 tonnes from 707,900 tonnes on the week, with a rise of 92,000 tonnes by 12.99%, and up 3.33% from 774,100 tonnes year on year. In comparison, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are curtailed, generally falling 590,400 tonnes or 9.95% to 5,337,500 tonnes from 5,927,900 tonnes, yet the figures are still up 40.63% from 3,795,400 tonnes year on year. On the whole, soybean meal stocks in next week may rise mildly, backed by high operating rate in the following two weeks, and additionally buyers’ fewer and fewer inclination to buy when spot prices of meal drop off will further add to its stocks.

              Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

            Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

        Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years