Cofeed News: till March 16th this week, edible palm oil at China’s ports has downsized from 655,100 tonnes to 649,100 tonnes by 0.9% in stocks on the week, but worth of noticing, the figure is still 3.9% higher than 624,300 tonnes on a year-on-year basis with an increase of 24,800 tonnes; besides, stocks of industrial palm oil are also seen falling, generally from 93,000 tonnes to 88,000 tonnes on the week, with a reduction of 5,000 tonnes by 5.4%. 

    

    Generally, domestic stocks of palm oil this week go down further, and according to Cofeed, April’s imports of palm oil are not much domestically due to unsatisfactory import margins, but on the other hand, sales of palm oil go better with total turnover around 19,600 tonnes, far higher than last week’s 2,000 tonnes since buyers are inclined to buying when futures go higher and higher this week and price gap between soybean oil and palm oil domestically is expanded to be around 573 yuan/tonne. Generally speaking, March imports of palm oil of 24-degree melting point are probably around 0.25-0.3 Mln tonnes, but smaller price differences, a figure still lower than normal level of 800 yuan/tonne, still subdue sales for palm oil spots. Thus on this very note, domestic stocks of palm oil will gradually rise when imports far exceed demand, but stocks in recent days may edge lower owing to good sales. 

                            Figure: Comparison of domestic palm oil stocks in recent years

    Imports of palm oil are estimated to be around 0.35-0.38 Mln tonnes for March import (0.25 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.10-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil); about 0.31 Mln tonnes for April imports (0.18 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil) and 0.43 Mln tonnes for May imports (0.30 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), all keep unchanged from estimates last week. Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.