Today (on March 23rd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last night ended high on CBOT, and meantime, Dalian soybean meal futures today are still on the increase amid high opens. Accordingly, domestic soybean meal spots price up and lower prices may attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,100 to 3,150 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,150 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,100-3,120 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,080-3,100 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,130-3,150 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,120-3,150 yuan/tonne). Although Trump signs a trade memorandum aiming to impose taxes on China's commodities, China in return also imposes tariffs on some US products to offset its losses. And surprisingly, US soybeans are excluded in China’s counter lists, showing China’s caution about US soybean import limits and its dependence on soybeans from the US. Additionally, the severe trade war between China and the US has led to a great tumble in industrial products with some funds shifting to soybean meal to make hedges, and with an expected overhaul in most oil mills for a half or one month from late March or early April, soybean meal prices will somewhat rise further. Yet, such price rises for soybean meal spots will not be impressive but to vibrate in line with futures for the reason that sales of soybean meal are still poor given pig rising remains unsatisfactory after great losses though its stocks keep accumulating based on high operating rate and good crush margins. All in all, performance of soybean meal for the time being will still be strong, therefore, buyers are suggested to maintain a proper inventory level rather than chase high.

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,480-2,570 yuan/tonne, a variation of 30-40 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,480 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 2,570 yuan/tonne; Fujian 2,500 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). US soybeans ended up last night owing to a tax-imposing on China's commodities in Trump’s trade memorandum, seemingly, a trade war between China and the US is in the making. Consequently, domestic meal futures rise substantially today with a market concern about China’s countermeasures in US soybean imports. Stocks for meal pile up further, helped by high operating rate and sufficient soybean and rapeseed. That no doubt puts great pressure on meal prices when aquatic raising is still off-reason. Nevertheless, rapeseed meal in a short term will remain strong driven by great ups of US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal remain stable, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,600-12,800 yuan/tonne; 13,300-13,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,600-13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 33,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 23,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,570 per tonne, USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Buyers at home mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, thus price variation for fishmeal in domestic market will be restrained.

    Daily review on soybeans: due to a strict investigation by State Commodity Inspection Department, imported soybeans for distribution at Qingdao and Rizhao ports remain unquoted.  Imported soybeans for distribution are markedly restricted in food-grade products circulation for port inspections in consideration of ample domestic soybean supply. Market players are not optimistic about its performance even when trades are allowed at ports. Attention should still be paid to port inspections and soybean arrivals.  

    Daily review on oils: Main contacts of US soybean overnight ended flat, and in contrast, forward contracts were seen to ended high. Actually, a trade war is in the air with the US administration taking the preemptive measures, accordingly, funds are seen changing from black futures like irons to agricultural products. Generally speaking, soybean meal and soybean oil on Dalian Commodity Exchange go high today, yet Dalian palm oil futures come off amid low opens when export duties on Malaysian palm oil are to be recovered. And domestic soybean oil spots suffer variations in part with futures going down in the afternoon, and palm oil spots are a tad lower. To be honest, turnover is not much for most buyers are stand on the sidelines. Oils in market continue to be weighed on given that soybean oil has increased to 1.41 Mln tonnes in stocks and soybean arrivals in April-to-June period are expected to be considerable. Notably, soybean are not included in China’s counter lists for US commodities when a trade war between China and the US is in the air, demonstrating China’s dependence on US soybean imports. Under such circumstances, oil prices domestically will remain low, therefore, buyer are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for the time being.

    Today’s soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,570-5,750 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,700-5,710 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,750 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,570-5,580 yuan/tonne).  

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,070 to 5,170 yuan/tonne, most down 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,150-5,160 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders stop to report; Zhangjiagang traders 5,170 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 5,070 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,150 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne).

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil are basically stable, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,320-6,480 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,400 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers basis 1809-180 for May delivery; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1809-220 for May delivery). At around 00:40 in the morning (Beijing time), US President Trump officially signed a memorandum against China’s commodities, in detail the U.S. administration projected to impose a 25% tariff on China’s commodities with at least US $60 billion. Seemingly, the trade war between China and the US is formally launched by the latter, and with worries go to China’s likely taxes on US soybean imports, US soybeans are now under pressure. But notably, rising soybean prices in South America have led to an increase on import costs, thus boosting oil futures, and additionally, soybean arrivals in the second quarter will rise substantially the time Malaysian palm oil also enters the production cycle. That demonstrates an overwhelming demands over supplies of oils, in this case, prices for rapeseed oil are hard to rise a lot, instead, prices will be relatively low in accordance with futures. 

Grains:  

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices drop steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,950-2,070 yuan/tonne, some down 6-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While the purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning keep flat at 1,850-1,880 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-710 g/L), with a reduction of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan ports prices at 1,870-1,890 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong settle at 2,030 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Deep processors in Shandong province have seen a surge in corn buying when weather goes well in North China, accordingly, some businesses again put down the buying prices seeing corn processing is in the red. Generally, corn demand in the end users is quite few when pig raising remains low after great tumble in pork prices and policies about reserved corn dumping are still unclear in such a sensitive period, and in consequence, corn prices at southern and northern ports decrease by 10-20 yuan/tonne. However, corn supplies is still relative tight as grain surplus in the northeastern corn belt is less than 20%, and only about 30% left in North China. Therefore, sellers prefer to higher prices before any likely auction of reserved corn, under such circumstance, corn prices may be limited to go down and shorter term, may keep high.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum prices go steady where some ports price at 1,960-2,100 yuan/tonne (Nantong 2,050-2,100 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,960-1,980 yuan/tonne). And prices for imported barley go steady, about 1,860-1,930 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,930 yuan/tonne, Guangdong 1,860 yuan/tonne). Imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China’s Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum and import costs keep increasing, especially for April delivery. Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods in hope for higher prices and in case of unavailable supply of lower costs and in view of upside-down sorghum prices at home and abroad. With bullish factors supported, grains at some ports price up further. Overall, grains in a short term may go high in prices.