Comments: stocks of soybean in oil mills fall further owing to less soybean arrivals this week, yet stock decline is somehow narrowed. Till March 23rd (week 12 of year 2018), weekly stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have downsized from 4,255,900 tonnes to 3,770,300 tonnes, a reduction of 11.38% or 485,600 tonnes on the week, but beyond doubt, its stocks are still up 21.73% from 3,097,100 tonnes the same week a year ago. By and large, soybean crush may plunge to be around 1.64 Mln tonnes next week for a general machine halt in some oil mills due to machine overhauls, bloated soybean meal stocks and unavailable soybean supplies, but notably, stock decline for soybean next week will somewhat be slowed down.
With lowered soybean processing capacity but good sales of soybean meal, stocks of soybean meal this week drop marginally when buyers are inclined to make replenishment upon bargain hunting this week, and additionally, its volume in outstanding contracts is also seen falling. Till March 23rd, its total stocks in costal major areas settle at 790,100 tonnes from 799,900 tonnes on the week, with a reduction of 9,800 tonnes by 1.22%, and down 5.89% from 839,600 tonnes year on year. In comparison, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are curtailed, generally falling 401,700 tonnes or 7.52% to 4,935,800 tonnes from 5,337,500 tonnes, yet the figures are still up 57.01% from 3,143,500 tonnes year on year. On the whole, soybean meal stocks in next week may fall further, driven by low operating rate and buyers’ inclination to buy in in view of a rally in future market. Yet, soybean meal later may pile up again if operating rate in the week after next is lifted to a staggering degree, then its supplies should be assured.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
