Today is 03/28/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on March 28th

2018-03-28 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on March 28th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last night on CBOT pared gains under the impact of technical selling, accordingly, Dalian meal today also falls slightly, with which domestic soybean meal spots drop. Yet, turnover of spots is seen poorer though some forward lower basis may attract deals. Soybean crush margins go better backed by large soybean arrivals in April-to-June period and generally high operating rate, yet, its spots may otherwise be capped to price up when pig raising is such unprofitable in wake of great losses and aquatic raising is still off-season. However, affected by uncertainties in US-China trade war and significant reduction of Argentina's soybean production, soybean meal may also be limited to fall amid speculators?cautions in short selling and crushers’ support for its prices. Shorter term, soybean meal may be volatile in line with futures in a tight range. Wisely, buyers had better make proper replenishment upon bargain buying and be cautious about prices of great ups. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal are basically stable, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,410-2,540 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,500 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1809+50 for basis; Fujian 2,500 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal may be easy to price up for Argentina's rains are still estimated to be few and trade disputes between China and the United States actually boost the domestic market amid a recent machine halt in Guangxi and Guangdong provinces. However, once China-US trade tension is somewhat alleviated, rapeseed meal may risk in falling in prices amid increasingly large soybean arrivals and new rapeseed.   

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,600-12,800 yuan/tonne; 13,300-13,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,600-13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till March 26th, about 90,966 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 17% of total quota--535,000 tonnes-- this season, among which 444,034 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 34,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 24,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,570 per tonne, USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal arrivals at domestic ports pile up further though a new survey for Peru's fish is still unclear, and with general demand domestically, fishmeal market in a short term will be dominated by a stable but weak trading session.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: competitions among traders goes severe as Non-GM soybean supplies at home are still sufficient, and in consequence, imported soybeans are hard to price up. Though US soybean is now excluded in China's proposed tariffs on US imports, uncertainties still remain in China-US trade war, and chances are there with soybean involved. But It is worth mentioning, buyers will probably turn to South America for soybean purchases if tariffs on US soybean imports are raised eventually. That will lead to a short supply of soybeans from South America and add more costs for China's imports. Attentions should still paid to latest market news. 

    Daily review on oils: traders are inclined to readjust positions as the sowing intention report and quarterly inventory report are reported to be released by the US Department of Agriculture on Thursday. Generally, US soybeans and soybean meal continued to fall last night, yet US soybean oil rose further owing to active arbitrary of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal. Correspondingly, Dalian oil futures today pare gains amid low opens, with which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots come down, and turnover is still not much. Analysts calculate that US soybean acreage will reach a fresh high of 91.1 Mln acres this year, and that Brazil's soybean production is probable to be bumper for some agencies have revised soybean production estimates up to 118.9 Mln tonnes from 117.5 Mln tonnes earlier. If confirmed, futures on CBOT will be weighed on and oils in the market will also be put under pressure amid large soybean arrivals latter. But notably, soybean oil plunges to 1.39 Mln tonnes in stocks amid good sales upon lower prices, significant reduction of Argentina's soybean and lowered operating rate in these two weeks. Additionally, China's buyers turn to Brazil for soybean purchases when uncertainties remain in the trade disputes, which then greatly boosts Brazil's soybean basis. Generally speaking, oils in a short term may still vibrate in line with futures in a certain range, therefore, buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.   

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,540-5,730 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,680-5,690 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders Y1805-80). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,020 to 5,130 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,110-5,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Rizhao traders stop to report; Zhangjiagang traders 5,130 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 5,020-5,040 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,120 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,250-6,400 yuan/tonne, falling 20-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,300 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne;  Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian offers 1,809-160 for July-August basis; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,320 yuan/tonne, falling 80 yuan/tonne). In real terms, oils in market are fueled both by grave reduction of Argentina's soybean production and favorable domestic market amid China-US trade disputes. In particular, oil stocks remain high based on large soybean arrivals in the second quarter and high operating rate in the near future, in this case, rapeseed oil in a short term may vibrate with futures frequently and is limited to rise when overwhelming demand over supply remains unchanged.  

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices continue to fall. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,940-2,050 yuan/tonne, some down 6-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), unchanged from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne, basically unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are lowered to 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne, a further drop of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday. Speculators flip back to a bearish stance with a concern that great amounts of corn reserved may be put into market later, yet some traders hoarding goods in these days speed up delivery though deep processors prefer to put down corn buying prices in consideration of substantially large corn at hand. Meantime, pig raising remains low after great tumble in prices and policies about reserved corn dumping are still unclear in such a sensitive period, in consequence, corn prices fall further and demand for corn of high prices is particularly fragile in the downstream. However, relatively deficient corn surplus in corn belt limits corn prices to go down and shorter term, its prices may keep high before any likely auction of reserved corn, and attention should still be paid to latest policies about corn auction. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum remains high where some ports price at 1,960-2,100 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,100 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,090-2,100 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,950-1,960 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for imported barley keep firm, about 1,860-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,930-1,940 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou 1,860 yuan/tonne). Imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China's Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum. And according to importers, sorghum imports in April are quite few the time import costs for sorghum and barley from Australia keep increasing in April and May delivery. Upside-down sorghum and barley prices are obvious factored in fundamental pressure and rising costs. Corn prices at ports and in corn belt these days pare gains further, putting its alternative feed ingredient barley and sorghum under pressure. Particularly, grains at ports today price steadily amid long and short positions, but overall, the strong performance will go forward. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.29)