Today is 03/29/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on March 29th

2018-03-29 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on March 29th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last night on CBOT ended low, accordingly, Dalian meal today also falls further, with which domestic soybean meal spots drop. Yet, turnover of spots is seen poor though some forward lower basis may attract deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,070 to 3,140 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,130 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,090-3,120 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,070-3,130 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,090-3,140 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,120-3,140 yuan/tonne). As US soybean sowing acreage is anticipated to be around 91 Mln tonnes acres in tonight's USDA report, a figure higher than last month's estimates of 90 Mln tonnes and 90.1 Mln tonnes in last year's estimates, US soybean futures are now weighed down amid a likely record-high quarterly inventory level. Soybean crush margins still go better backed by large soybean arrivals as high as 27.6 Mln tonnes in April-to-June period and generally high operating rate, yet, its spots may otherwise be capped to price up when pig raising is such low due to great losses and aquatic raising is still off-season though soybean meal stocks keep accumulating. However, under the impact of US-China trade spat, Chinese buyers have great initiatives to buy Brazil's soybeans, which then fuels Brazil's soybean basis. Honestly, soybean meal may also be limited to fall amid speculators’ caution in short selling and crushers’ support for its prices. Shorter term, soybean meal may be volatile in line with futures in a tight range. Therefore, buyers had better stay on the sidelines and make proper purchases when price decline goes steady and forward basis is not more than 50 yuan. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal fall, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,410-2,530 yuan/tonne, down 10-30 yuan/tonne from yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,470 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 1809+50 for basis; Fujian stops to report). US soybean futures are dragged down by expected bearish USDA quarterly inventory report according to market players, probably increased US soybean sowing acreage and bumper Brazil's soybeans, correspondingly, rapeseed meal also tracks the decline. Yet, uncertainties in the trade spat boost the domestic market, therefore, rapeseed meal shorter term may be dominated by frequent vibrations in a tight range tracking futures. Wisely, buyers may as well take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,600-12,800 yuan/tonne; 13,300-13,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,600-13,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,500 yuan/tonne; 13,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishing: till March 27th, about 92,713 tonnes of fish have been caught in southern Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 17.33% of total quota--535,000 tonnes-- this season, among which 442,287 tonnes remain unfinished. Port stocks: Hangpu has 34,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 32,000 tonnes, Shanghai 25,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,570 per tonne, USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As fishmeal stocks at domestic ports pile up further the time the outlook for Peru's fish is expected to be promising, domestic fishmeal is priced down in market. On the whole, fishmeal market in a short term will be dominated by a stable but weak trading session.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: competition now between traders is intense since non-GM soybeans at home are sufficient in supplies, and prices in consequence for imported soybeans are not that high. Actually, conversion about bilateral trade between China and the United States is under way with no latest news on the issue. Such being the case, market players now focus on the fundamentals, one is US soybean acreage report for analysts calculate that acreage will reach a fresh high of 91.1 Mln acres this year and additionally, soybean stocks are only expected to be high in March due to bumper soybeans in years; second is anticipated bumper harvest of soybean in Brazil when Agroconsult agency has revised soybean production estimates up to 118.9 Mln tonnes from 117.5 Mln tonnes earlier. If confirmed, soybeans in the market may be under pressure. 

    Daily review on oils: as traders are active in positions adjustment, US soybeans and soybean meal continued to fall last night, yet US soybean oil rose further owing to the finished arbitrary of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. Correspondingly, Dalian oil futures today pare gains further, with which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots come down, and turnover is still not much. As the sowing intention report and quarterly inventory report released by the US Department of Agriculture tonight are expected to be bearish and Brazil's soybean output is further revised upward, US soybeans are weighed down amid traders’ positions adjustment and oils in the market also are put under pressure amid large soybean arrivals latter. But notably, soybean oil plunges to 1.39 Mln tonnes in stocks affected by significant reduction of Argentina's soybean and lowered operating rate in these two weeks. With uncertainties in the trade disputes and caution of speculators in short selling, oils are not to fall a lot but to vibrate in line with futures in a certain range, therefore, buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy and wait for tonight's USDA report for guidance. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,520-5,680 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,640-5,650 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,660 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,520-5,530 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,980 and 5,070 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,080-5,090 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,070 yuan/tonne, a decline of 60 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,980-5,010 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders and Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil drop, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,250-6,400 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,270 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,260 yuan/tonne, falling 60 yuan/tonne). Despite grave decline of soybean production in Argentina, China's imports of soybeans will continue to increase in the later period for crush margins are generally good and a bumper harvest of Brazil's soybean is probably set. High operating rate in the near future but overwhelming demand over supply put rapeseed oil prices down, yet rapeseed oil overall suffers from frequent vibrations in line with futures as the trade spat actually boots the market at home. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices remain stable with downward tendency, but the falling pace is somewhat slowed down. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,940-2,040 yuan/tonne, some down 6-10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), unchanged from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne, basically unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong settle at 2,000 yuan/tonne, slightly up 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Sinograin is reported to start auction next week with plans and lists released according to market news, but it has not yet be officially confirmed. Market speculators shift to a bearish stance given that some traders hoarding goods in these days speed up delivery though deep processors prefer to put down corn buying prices in consideration of substantially large corn at hand. However, relatively deficient corn surplus in corn belt limits corn prices to go down amid crushers' support for the prices and shorter term, its prices may drop steadily before any likely auction of reserved corn, and attention should still be paid to latest policies about corn auction. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum remains high where some ports price at 1,960-2,100 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,100 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,090-2,100 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,950-1,960 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for imported barley keep firm, about 1,860-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin has not reported yet; Nantong offers 1,930-1,940 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou 1,860 yuan/tonne). Imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China's Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum. And according to importers, sorghum imports in April are quite few the time import costs for sorghum and barley from Australia keep increasing in April and May delivery. Upside-down sorghum and barley prices are obvious factored in fundamental pressure and rising costs. Corn prices at ports and in corn belt these days pare gains further, putting its alternative feed ingredient barley and sorghum under pressure. Particularly, grains at ports today price steadily amid long and short positions, but overall, the strong performance will go forward.  

(USD $1=CNY 6.29)