Today is 03/29/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on April 2nd

2018-04-02 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on April 2nd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: beans on Globex rise high, the same trend going to Dalian meal. Correspondingly, domestic soybean meal spots mostly price up, yet Dalian meal is seen narrowed after morning's high and is basically lower than former closing. Sales turn light as buyers are cautious about buying. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,180 to 3,230 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,230 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,190-3,200 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,210-3,230 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,190-3,230 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,190-3,230 yuan/tonne). China government announced on April 2nd that it would suspend tariff concession for the seven categories of 128 US goods, and otherwise impose a tariff rate of 25% on pork and its products. Uncertainty of the trade war between China and the United States is relatively large, and if negotiation between the two economies fails and soybeans fall into the target for retaliation, soybean meal will probably price a lot. Last week, soybean crush plunged to 1.48 Mln tonnes on the week by 10% amid speculators’ caution in short buying, in this way, soybean meal is easier to price up. However, such price upside may somewhat be limited and capped by slack desire for pig raising due to great losses in it and by large soybean arrivals in the second quarter of 27.6 Mln tonnes. Thereby, buyers who made enough replenishment last week are encouraged to stand by in case of any risks after great ups. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,580-2,650 yuan/tonne, rising by 20-100 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,600 yuan/tonne, up 100 yuan/tonne; Guangdong offers 1809+50 for basis; Fujian 2,580 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). Domestic soybean meal is now under the impact of bullish USDA report on soybean plantings and China's added tariffs on some US goods officially. Market sentiments have also been ignited though possibility of targeting US soybeans as the retaliation is not that high. Correspondingly, speculators' caution in short buying and strong performance of meal futures boost rapeseed meal to price up, specially, rapeseed meal in South China last week declined to 59,000 tonne by 6% on the week. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,300-12,600 yuan/tonne; 13,200-13,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,500-13,700 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 12,300 yuan/tonne; 13,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 13,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 35,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 24,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 3,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,570 per tonne, USD $1,730 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As the survey of Peru's fish is still not unclear amid the pile-up of stockpiles at domestic ports, holders are now under pressure. On the whole, fishmeal market in a short term will be dominated by a stable but weak trading session.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: domestically, US Gulf soybean prices are pegged at around 3,700 yuan/tonne. Generally, imported GM soybeans prices are way too high, leading to little price difference between domestic soybeans and imported soybeans. Nevertheless, soybean trade in Shandong is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, in contrast, GM-soybean trade is mostly seen at Tianjin ports with sufficient supplies, but severe competition among traders otherwise weighs on imported soybeans in market. All in all, imported soybeans are now volatile in a steady pace and in a tight range. 

    Daily review on oils: soybean futures on Globex end the day on a strong note after US market closed on last Friday, accordingly, Dalian oil futures today go great high amid high opens, with which soybean oil and palm oil spots domestically price up. Sales are anticipated to be good upon lower prices but few upon higher ones. Officially, China government announced on April 2nd that it would suspend tariff concession for the seven categories of 128 US goods. That demonstrates that the imports of US soybeans are now on the table amid uncertainty in this trade war, yet on the other hand, USDA bullish report on plantings and significant reduction of Argentina's soybeans give a strength to US soybean performance. Last week, soybean crush fell to 1.48 Mln tonnes, a 10% decline from the previous week, and soybean oil further plunged to 1.38 Mln tonnes or so with relatively good sales of lower soybean prices, and additionally, Malaysian oil futures are boosted and bolstered by good demand outlook in Ramadan, the month of fast according to Islam. Such being the case, oils may keep rangebound with upward tendency. To guarantee soybean meal supplies, operating rare is lifted backed by as high as 27.6 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals in the second quarter, and as a result, soybean oil production may also be piling up, especially in mid-to-late period. Overall, such overwhelming supply over demand will weigh down oils in the medium and long period. Wisely, buyers may as well maintain a proper inventory level upon bargain buying instead of chasing too high. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,640-5,810 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 40-70 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,770-5,780 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,750 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,810 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,640-5,650 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,070 and 5,170 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50-70 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,160-5,170 yuan/tonne, a growth of 50 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,150 yuan/tonne, up 70 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,070-5,080 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders and Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,320-6,460 yuan/tonne, up 50-100 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,270 yuan/tonne; Fujian stops to report; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,280 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed oil may keep rangebound for the time being given grave losses of Argentina's soybean production and the bullish USDA report on plantings. Last week, rapeseed oil in South China accumulated to 65,000 tonnes on the week by 24%, an indicative of rising stockpiles. Additionally, such glut of oils is impressive factored in as high as 27.6 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals in the second quarter, lifted operating rate and the booming time for Malaysian palm oil in production, in consequence, rapeseed oil for the time being is hard to trade up. Wisely, buyers may as well maintain a proper inventory level upon bargain buying instead of chasing too high. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices tumble a lot. Most purchasing prices for corn in Shandong deep processors stay at 1,900-1,980 yuan/tonne, down 20-60 yuan/tonne compared with last Friday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast stand at 1,650-1,760 yuan/tonne, some down 10-50 yuan/tonne over last Friday. Corn purchasing prices at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are revised to 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), down 45 yuan/tonne over last Friday, and 1,770 yuan/tonne for volume weight 670 g/L. Drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port prices at 1,790-1,800 yuan/tonne, down 40-50 yuan/tonne compared with last Friday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are lowered to 1,960 yuan/tonne, a drop of 50 yuan/tonne over last Friday. Market sentiments are further dampened by haunting rumors about reserved corn auction, and with temperature goes higher and higher, some farmers and traders speed up delivery to supply the market in consideration of difficulties in corn storage in hot days. On the other hand, with slack corn demand in the downstream in off-season period, great losses in poultry industry and in deep processors and market moods of “buying up” corn supply is now far more overwhelming than demand amid speculators' caution in buying. Such being the case, corn prices for the time may be week. Yet, in light of insufficient soybean surplus in main corn belt and a year-on-year reduction of high-quality corn, corn prices are somewhat supported. Still, great focus on reserved corn auction should be there. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, imported sorghum prices down steadily where some ports price at 1,950-2,100 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,090-2,100 yuan/tonne; Qingdao 2,240 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,060-2,080 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,950 yuan/tonne, being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley keep firm, about 1,850-2,050 yuan/tonne at main ports (Tianjin 2,050 yuan/tonne; Qingdao 2,010 yuan/tonne; Nantong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne, Guangdong 1,850 yuan/tonne). News about corn auction prevails in the market, sending corn to a bearish side, in consequence, consistent falls of corn prices weigh on grains at ports, in detail, sorghum prices at some ports today are a tad lower. Imports of sorghum from America will fall impressively for the campaign of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” has been launched by China's Ministry of Commerce for American sorghum. And according to importers, sorghum imports in April are quite few the time import costs for sorghum and barley from Australia keep increasing in April and May delivery. Upside-down sorghum and barley prices are obvious factored in fundamental pressure and rising costs and price downside is not much, if possible. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.28)