Comments: stocks of soybean in oil mills fall further this week owing to less soybean arrivals and some delayed shipments. Till March 30th (week 13 of year 2018), weekly stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have downsized from 3,770,300 tonnes to 3,559,600 tonnes, a reduction of 5.58% or 210,700 tonnes on the week, but its stocks are still up 6.87% from 3,330,600 tonnes the same week a year ago. By and large, soybean crush may increase to 1.60 Mln tonnes or so in week 14 factored in resumed operating rate, but the stock decline for soybean next week will somewhat be slowed down or not be impressive given increasing soybean arrivals.
With lowered soybean processing capacity but good sales of soybean meal, stocks of soybean meal this week drop fractionally, in contrast, soybean meal in outstanding contracts is seen a tad higher. Till March 30th, its total stocks in costal major areas settle at 773,700 tonnes, falling from 790,100 tonnes on the week, with a reduction of 16,400 tonnes by 2.07%, but up 6.35% from 727,500 tonnes year on year. In comparison, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are up to 5,064,300 tonnes, generally rising 128,500 tonnes or 2.60% from 4,935,800 tonnes, and the figure is still up 31.06% from 3,864,000 tonnes year on year. On the whole, soybean meal stocks next week are expected to fall further, driven by speedy delivery, good sales and less soybean crush, yet its stocks may pile up again in late April.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
