China’s Palm Oil Stocks and Arrivals Weekly (Week 13, 2018)
I．National stocks
Cofeed News: till March 30th this week, edible palm oil at China’s ports has increased to 689,100 tonnes from 679,100 tonnes by 1.5% in stocks on the week, and meantime, the figure is 2% higher than 675,800 tonnes on a year-on-year basis with an increase of 13,300 tonnes; stocks of industrial palm oil are also up to 84,300 tonnes from 82,500 tonnes on the week, with a rise of 1,800 tonnes by 2.2%.
Generally, price gap between soybean oil and palm oil domestically now settles at 585 yuan/tonne, a figure still lower than normal level of 800 yuan/tonne. Actually such small price difference subdues the demand for spots and poor performance of oil futures at home and abroad also stumbles buyers’ initiatives in buying. As a consequence, sales of palm oil this week domestically are only 6,050 tonnes as opposed to 7,400 tonnes last week. According to Cofeed, China’s traders for the present have no interest in palm oil buying on account of little import margins in April, which may lead to relatively low palm oil arrivals then. Frankly speaking, imports of palm oil of 24 -degree melting point have now totaled 180,000 tonnes or so, and its stocks are likely to edge lower in mid-to-late April if import margins remain unsatisfactory.
Figure: Comparison of domestic palm oil stocks in recent years
II．Arrivals
Shipments in late March are seen increasing as importers speed up the pace in case of projected raised tariffs for Malaysian goods in April. Imports of palm oil are estimated to be around 0.41-0.43 Mln tonnes for March import (0.30-0.31 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.10-0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), up 50,000 tonnes or so from last week’s estimate; about 0.31 Mln tonnes for April imports (0.18 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil) and 0.43 Mln tonnes for May imports (0.30 Mln tonnes of 24-degree palm oil, 0.13 Mln tonnes of industrial palm oil), both keep unchanged from estimates last week. Arrivals of palm oil may change with the market and shipping schedule, therefore information will be updated according to latest shipments and possible defaults.
