Unit：10,000 tonnes

Area/Enterprise	Soybean oil stocks			Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
	Week 13	Week 12	Variation	Week 13	Week 12	Variation
Northeast China	3.32	3.3	0.02	6.15	6.7	-0.55
North China	24.94	24.42	0.52	20.33	18.2	2.13
Shandong	8.91	9.38	-0.47	7.173	6.46	0.713
East China	45.45	45.57	-0.12	27.51	27.8	-0.29
Guangdong	15.734	16.783	-1.049	18.94	18.38	0.56
Guangxi	13.66	14.363	-0.703	13.45	14.05	-0.6
Fujian	6.85	6.8	0.05	4.6	4.1	0.5
Henan	3.115	3.34	-0.225	0.905	0.78	0.125
Sichuan	4.45	4.35	0.1	3.35	3.58	-0.23
Others	11.35	10.85	0.5	1.52	1.16	0.36
Total	137.779	139.156	-1.377	103.928	101.21	2.718

 

    Comments: soybean oil stocks fall further this week, and according to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories till March 30th has decreased to 1,377,790 tonnes from 1,391,560 tonnes on the week by 0.99% and 13,770 tonnes below by comparison. Additionally, the figure is also down 2.12% from 1,407,700 tonnes with a reduction of 29,910 tonnes on a year-on-year basis, but it is up 215,790 tonnes by 18.57% from 1,162,000 tonnes for the same week last month. On the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years are around 963,978 tonnes.

 

    Due to a complete overhaul and unavailable soybean supplies in some oil mills this week (Mar. 24th-30th), national soybean crush now plunges to 1,480,800 tonnes (1,177,236 tonnes of soybean meal, 266,544 tonnes of soybean oil), decreasing by 10.33% or 170,700 tonnes from 1,651,500 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing capacity utilization is down to 43.36%, 5 percentage points lower than 48.36% last week. 

 

    Affected by lower-than-expected shipments in Brazil, some April shipments of soybean oil are delayed to the next month. According to Cofeed, about 8.07 Mln tonnes of soybeans are only expected to arrive at China’s ports in April, generally down 230,000 tonnes as opposed to estimates last week. Soybean crush in week 14 is estimated to be around 1.6 Mln tonnes when some oil mills resume operation in early April, a relatively low level. With time going by, its crush may pile up to a relatively high level in wake of resumed operation in most oil mills, specially, soybean crush in week 15 is expected to stand at a high level of 1.79 Mln tonnes. Accordingly, latest estimates for soybean arrivals in May are 9.6 Mln tonnes, a rise of 300,000 tonnes from estimates last month, and around 10 Mln tonnes in June. Lifted operating rate in oil mills later leads to the pile-up of soybean meal and soybean oil production, and that increases soybean oil stocks in mid-to-late April amid short-lived good fundamentals. On the whole, the glut of oils for a short time will continue.

 

                                 Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years