Comments: stockpiles of soybean in oil mills edge up this week, no big change as opposed to last week. Till April 6th (week 14 of year 2018), stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have increased from 3,559,600 tonnes to 3,578,600 tonnes, a rise of 0.53% or 19,000 tonnes on the week, and still up 2.01% from 3,508,100 tonnes the same week a year ago. By and large, soybean crush may increase to 1.63 Mln tonnes or so, a relatively low level in week 15 factored in overflowing soybean meal in some oil mills. Generally, soybean stockpiles next week will not change a lot.
With the pile-up of soybean crush but poor shipments of soybean meal in China’s Tomb Sweeping Day, stocks of soybean meal this week are seen rising, and meantime soybean meal in outstanding contracts also rise further amid good sales upon forward basis and bloated soybean meal in most Rizhao and Changchun mills. Till April 6th, its total stocks in costal major areas come in at 826,000 tonnes, up 52,300 tonnes from 773,700 tonnes on the week by 6.75%, and up 23.17% from 670,600 tonnes year on year. In comparison, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are up to 6,115,800 tonnes, generally rising by 1,051,500 tonnes or 20.76% from 5,064,300 tonnes, and also up 41.47% from 4,148,800 tonnes year on year. On the whole, soybean meal stocks next week are expected to ratchet up in view of lifted operation rate.
Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years
Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years
