According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 14 (till April 6th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit: 10,000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
|
Week 14
|
Week 13
|
Variation
|
Week 14
|
Week 13
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
3.2
|
3.32
|
-0.12
|
8.35
|
6.15
|
2.2
|
|
North China
|
25.3
|
24.94
|
0.36
|
20.96
|
20.33
|
0.63
|
|
Shandong
|
9.28
|
8.91
|
0.37
|
7.14
|
7.173
|
-0.033
|
|
East China
|
46.05
|
45.45
|
0.6
|
26.7
|
27.51
|
-0.81
|
|
Guangdong
|
15.208
|
15.734
|
-0.526
|
17.457
|
18.94
|
-1.483
|
|
Guangxi
|
12.465
|
13.66
|
-1.195
|
12.63
|
13.45
|
-0.82
|
|
Fujian
|
7.7
|
6.85
|
0.85
|
4.85
|
4.6
|
0.25
|
|
Henan
|
3.04
|
3.115
|
-0.075
|
1.02
|
0.905
|
0.115
|
|
Sichuan
|
4.7
|
4.45
|
0.25
|
3.52
|
3.35
|
0.17
|
|
Others
|
10.68
|
11.35
|
-0.67
|
1.3
|
1.52
|
-0.22
|
|
Total
|
137.623
|
137.779
|
-0.156
|
103.927
|
103.928
|
-0.001
|
Comments: soybean oil stocks are a tad lower this week, and according to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories till April 6th has decreased to 1,376,230 tonnes, generally falling 1,560 tonnes by 0.11% from 1,377,790 tonnes on the week. Additionally, the figure is also down 0.99% from 1,390,000 tonnes with a reduction of 13,770 tonnes on a year-on-year basis, but as opposes to the same week last year, it is still up 188,630 tonnes by 15.88% from 1,187,600 tonnes. On the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years are around 964,016 tonnes.
As operation rate ratchets up this week, national soybean crush now amounts to 1,510,600 tonnes (1,200,927 tonnes of soybean meal, 271,908 tonnes of soybean oil), generally rising by 2.01% or 29,800 tonnes from 1,480,800 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing capacity utilization is up to 44.23%, 0.87 percentage points higher than 43.36% last week. Generally speaking, total soybean crush in week 14 is seen lower than expected owing to bloated soybean meal in some mills, yet, soybean crush in week 15 may probably recover to 1.63 Mln tonnes though a relatively low level. Recently, with good sales upon lower prices and shipments in oil mills, soybean oil stockpiles are expected to slide further.
Soybean crush in week 16 are expected to hit a higher level of 1.72 Mln tonnes when most oil mills resume operation in mid-and-late April. According to Cofeed, latest estimates for soybean arrivals in May are 9.5 Mln tonnes, a setback of 100,000 tonnes from estimates last week, around 9.4 Mln tonnes in June, down 600,000 tonnes as opposed to estimates last week, and approximately 9.7 Mln tonnes in July. Such large soybean arrivals and surprisingly profitable crush margins will no doubt contribute to an improvement of operation rate, such being the case, soybean oil production is probably to pile up, especially in mid-and-late April.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
