Today is 04/27/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on April 20th

2018-04-20 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on April 20th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans on Chicago Board of Trade ended low last night, while soybean meal on Dalian Commodity Exchange today picks up. Domestic soybean meal spots change in a steady pace with futures today, yet turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,150 to 3,220 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,210 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,120-3,200 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,190-3,200 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,180-3,210 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,180-3,220 yuan/tonne). There have ideas in the marketplace that China's Ministry of Commerce has informed crushers of the probably additional tariffs on US soybeans, that is to say, crushers had better prepare themselves and turn to other exporters for soybean purchases. As lingering nerves about the decline in China's demand for US export go forward, US soybeans overnight on CBOT plunged further. Domestically, soybean meal spots are under pressure for the reason that its stockpiles are accumulating based on profitable crush margins and sufficiently large soybean arrivals, and for another that losses in pig raising and slack demand in off-season aquatic raising contribute to slow consumption of meals amid pronounced supply over demand. Such being the case, some crushers urge buyers to make delivery in case of bloated soybean meal and machine halt, especially crushers in Shandong and North China. Notwithstanding, soybean meal may have the resistance to price down, or exactly move sideways in a tight range for former inflated bubble basically disappear, moreover, soybean meal is expected to price up in the event of a heating-up of trade tension between China and the US. Buyers had better make proper replenishment upon bargain buying instead of chasing high.   

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, imported rapeseed meal prices pick up, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,600-2,700 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne (Guangxi stops to report; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1809-10; Fujian 2,700 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). Though export outlook is on a strong note, speculative commodity investors generally fear that China will take a purchasing strategy based on demand, consequently weighing down meal futures on CBOT. Additionally, the ongoing glut of oils will still restrict price upside of meals seeing meal stockpiles will pile up helped by large soybean arrivals in May-to-July period about 28.5 Mln tonnes, and on the other hand, losses in pig raising continue and aquatic raising is still off-season. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, imported fishmeal price down, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 11,300-1,1600 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 200-400 yuan/tonne over yesterday; 12,300-12,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, falling 200-300 yuan/tonne against yesterday; 12,600-12,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content with a reduction of 200-400 yuan/tonne. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 11,300 yuan/tonne,12,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, both down 300 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Port stocks: Hangpu has 37,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 27,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till April 18th, about 487,012 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 14.68% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 2,829,688 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,470 per tonne, USD $1,630 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As Peru's futures in the outer remain weak, fishmeal holders are strongly inclined to make shipments though feed sectors at home are not interested in buying, under such circumstances, fishmeal is probable to be pressured down. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: generally, soybean trade at Shandong ports is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, particularly, GM-soybeans for distribution are obviously capped to circulate in the food sector. Prices for imported soybeans at Tianjin port are stable, ranging from 3,450 to 4,330 yuan/tonne. Prices for US soybeans remain high due to higher import costs of soybeans for the moment, and particularly, market speculation now switches to weather in the US soybean growing areas for US soybeans are now in the sowing period, therefore, imported soybean is hard to price down. Otherwise, price upside of imported soybeans will not go out of control in the case that non-GM soybeans sales are dominant at Tianjin ports for US soybean available for market distribution is less and less. On the whole, imported soybeans for the time being may go stable with upward tendency. 

    Daily review on oils: despite promising export outlook, speculative commodity investors generally fear that China will take a purchasing strategy based on demand, consequently weighing down beans on CBOT amid weaker performance of crude oil. Accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange trend up mildly today, with which domestic soybean oil and some palm oil spots price up. Turnover upon lower basis is seen good, but not the case of spots. Actually, oils in market have little vitality to rebound for the reason that US soybeans are weighed down by the US-China trade spat and for the other that weekly crush in the following two weeks may hit a fresh high of 1.8 Mln tonnes based on sufficient plentiful soybean arrivals in April-to-July period, lucrative crush margins and active operation in oil mills. Whereas, as rumors go that the Ministry of Commerce warned crushers to prepare themselves well for the forthcoming additional tariffs on US soybeans, such being the case, oils have the resistance to fall in domestic market and are to trade sideways frequently with futures. Wisely, buyers are suggested to make proper replenishment upon bargain buying when forward bass is low. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,670-5,800 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,790-5,800 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,800 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,670 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,040 to 5,140 yuan/tonne, some rising by 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,130-5,140 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,100 yuan/tonne, keeping flat; Guangzhou traders 5,040 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,100 tonnes; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer basis P09+100). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices up, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,340-6,500 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,400 yuan/tonne, up 80 yuan/tonne; Fujian offers basis 1809-160; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,410 yuan/tonne, up 40 yuan/tonne). Futures on CBOT all pare gains for investors worry about the changing soybean purchases strategy of China. And as importers tend to increase rapeseed purchases amid the trade spat, oils performance in market remain week seeing plentiful soybean and rapeseed arrivals at ports later, and on this note, rapeseed oil is to move sideways tracking futures the time market players also have little confidence for its performance. Notwithstanding, oil prices domestically may recover if the trade spat is heated up, reportedly, US administration is probable to detail its proposed tariffs on Chinese goods worth up to 100 billion dollars this week. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices edge low steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,800-1,940 yuan/tonne, some down 10-16 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,770-1,790 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), up 10 yuan/tonne upon the higherst price from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,7700-1,780 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong come in at 1,900-1,920 yuan/tonne, down 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. If things go on that approximately 7 Mln tonnes are put into market every week, supply pressure will no doubt be overwhelmingly great. That is to say, corn is to trade sideways with downward tendency provided if there is no great improvement of corn demand in the downstream. However, short supply of and rigid demand for high-quality corn spots in market may support its prices and limit the price downside, to illustrate, corn auction in the second round are seen good in sales. As policy-oriented corn auction comes to the market in haste, corn performance later mainly depend on the auction pace, trade volume and trade prices.

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum jump, around 1,980-2,200 yuan/tonne for US sorghum prices at some ports (US sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,200 yuan/tonne, up 150 yuan/tonne, Nantong 2,100 yuan/tonne, up 80 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,980 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,500 yuan/tonne, up 120 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offers 2,900 yuan/tonne for red sorghum, Sichuan offers 3,200-3,300 yuan/tonne, being flat; Jilin offers 2,900 yuan/tonne, being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley keep firm, about 1,820-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Shandong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,910-1,930 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat). China's Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 38 Announcement of 2018 yesterday, which demonstrated its preliminary decision on US sorghum dumping, in detail, 178.6% deposit was to be levied for US sorghum at ports. In face of possible falling supply of US sorghum after increased import costs, importers now hold onto goods tightly. In other words, grains in market are underpinned by high import costs of barley and Australia's sorghum. Sorghum prices quoted at ports today are seen rising substantially, but with the uncertainty in corn market, sorghum-- the alternative feed ingredient for corn-- is probable to knock off from the high price to take the advantage if corn prices also fall further. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.29)