Today is 01/02/2025

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on April 23rd

2018-04-23 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on April 23rd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last Friday closed low, the same trend going to soybean meal today on Dalian Commodity Exchange. Domestic soybean meal spots are mostly weighed down with futures, yet turnover is still light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,120 to 3,200 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne against last Friday (Tianjin prices 3,200 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,120-3,170 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,170-3,200 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,180-3,200 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,180-3,200 yuan/tonne). The U.S. Finance Minister is said to schedule a visit to China for a negotiation on the trade war with a prudent and optimistic mind, which poses downward pressure on the domestic market. Notably, overflowing soybean meal in some oil mills have contributed to machine halt on account that weekly soybean crush has already hit a fresh high of 1.8 Mln tonnes backed by lucrative soybean crush margins and good processing capacity and that consumption of meals in end users is still low factored in grave damage in pigs and poultry industry and off-season aquatic raising, therefore some crusher in Shandong and North China have to urge traders to make delivery in response to these burdensome stockpiles. Additionally, basis is also seen plummeting due to good crush margins and strong inclination of crushers to make shipments, on this note, some mills in Jiangsu even offer negative 20 for April-to-May contract, which no doubt weighs down soybean meal prices. Yet, as the China-US trade war is still under the spotlight, downside of soybean meal is to be curbed to some degree amid uncertainty in the bilateral trade and crop damage in Argentina. To tell the truth, buyers had better stay on the sidelines. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal plummet, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,600-2,660 yuan/tonne with a drop of 20-40 yuan/tonne over yesterday in part (Guangxi offers 2,590 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1809-10; Fujian 2,660 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne). Though export outlook is on a strong note, speculative commodity investors generally fear that China will take a purchasing strategy based on demand, consequently weighing down meal futures on CBOT. Additionally, the ongoing glut of oils will still restrict price upside of meals seeing meal stockpiles will pile up helped by large soybean arrivals in May-to-July period about 28.5 Mln tonnes, and on the other hand, losses in pig raising continue and aquatic raising is still off-season. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal edge lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300-11,600 yuan/tonne; 12,300-12,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600-12,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300 yuan/tonne; 12,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 38000 tonnes, Fuzhou 33,000 tonnes, Shanghai 27,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,470 per tonne, USD $1,630 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Peruvian good fishing outlook in the new season and slack demand at home both dampen holders' sentiment at ports, accordingly fishmeal is probable to be pressured down further for the time being. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: generally, soybean trade at Shandong ports is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, particularly, GM-soybeans for distribution are obviously capped to circulate in the food sector. Prices for imported soybeans at Tianjin port are stable, ranging from 3,450 to 4,330 yuan/tonne. Prices for US soybeans remain high due to higher import costs of soybeans for the moment, and particularly, market speculation now switches to weather in the US soybean growing areas for US soybeans are now in the sowing period, therefore, imported soybean is hard to price down. Otherwise, price upside of imported soybeans will not go out of control in the case that non-GM soybeans sales are dominant at Tianjin ports for US soybean available for market distribution is less and less. On the whole, imported soybeans for the time being may go stable with upward tendency. 

    Daily review on oils: as good weather condition in main producing areas attracts a series of profit taking and long positions closing, US soybean and soybean oil ended last Friday overnight trading low, but prices for soybean meal were mixed. Accordingly, oils on DCE move sideways, where some domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots vibrate. Turnover of low basis goes well, but not the case for spots. Since good weather condition in US soybean growing areas speeds up sowing the time US soybean export outlook is affected by the US-China trade spat, US soybeans are to move sideways for the time being. Accordingly, oil spots on the domestic market will also trade sideways, mainly attributed to two reasons: first, weekly soybean crush has already reached a fresh level of 1.8 Mln tonnes based on large soybean arrivals in April-to-July period and healthy crash margins, and second, palm oil from Malaysia is weak in export outlook for goods hoarding are basically finished during the the month of fast, the ninth month according to Islam. Nevertheless, crushers’ support for the prices will curb downside of oil spots before any negotiation could be reached by the two economies. Buyers are suggested to make proper purchases when forward basis is low rather than chase high for the spots. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,650-5,800 yuan/tonne, part of which fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,780-5,790 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,800 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,650-5,660 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas range from 5,040 to 5,140 yuan/tonne, some fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,130-5,140 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders 5,100 yuan/tonne, keeping flat; Guangzhou traders 5,040 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,080 tonnes, down 20 yuan/tonne; Rizhao stops to report.). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil are mixed, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,350-6,500 yuan/tonne, fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,400 yuan/tonne; Fujian offers basis 1809-160; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,400 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). Domestic oil futures plummet in today's trading in response to U.S. Finance Minister's likely visit to China for a talk this Saturday. The impressive glut of oils still goes forward as soybean oil and rapeseed oil keep accumulating on the domestic market, in detail, stockpiles of rapeseed oil in South China and East China rose to 50,000 tonnes by 3% and 239,000 tonnes by 5% on the week, respectively. Furthermore, other bearish factors like large soybean and rapeseed arrivals will render rapeseed oil to trade sideways with futures frequently but in a tight range. The trade war still matters later in market. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices edge low steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,800-1,920 yuan/tonne, some down 6-20 yuan/tonne from last Friday. While the purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning decrease by 10-20 yuan/tonne at 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-710 g/L) as opposed to last week. While drying new corn of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan ports prices is pegged at 1,770-1,780 yuan/tonne since last Friday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong are lowered to 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20 yuan/tonne over last Friday. Though 14 Mln tonnes of corn have been transacted after two-week auction, another 7 Mln tonnes are reported to be auctioned this week, and If things go on like this, supply pressure will no doubt be greater and greater. However, there have implications and repercussions that corn prices may go lower and lower provided if there is no great improvement of demand in the downstream amid relatively sufficient stockpiles in feed sectors and increased caution about spot purchases among deep processors. However, in consideration of rigid demand for high-quality corn spots and not mach old corn in market, the price decline of corn may somewhat be limited. Attentions should still be paid to turnover of corn auctioned this week. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum keep firm, around 1,980-2,100 yuan/tonne for US sorghum prices at some ports (US sorghum: Tianjin stops to report, Nantong 2,100 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,980 yuan/tonne,being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,500 yuan/tonne,being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley ratchet up steadily, about 1,820-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Shandong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuna/tonne; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat). China's Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 38 Announcement of 2018 yesterday, which demonstrated its preliminary decision on US sorghum dumping, in detail, 178.6% deposit was to be levied for US sorghum at ports. In face of possible falling supply of US sorghum after increased import costs, importers now hold onto goods tightly. In other words, grains in market are underpinned by high import costs of barley and Australia's sorghum. Sorghum prices at ports today remain high, but with the uncertainty in corn market, sorghum-- the alternative feed ingredient for corn-- is probable to be under impact if corn prices fall further. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.308)