According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 16 (till April 20th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit: 0’000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean oil stocks
|
Soybean oil in outstanding contracts
|
|
|
Week 16
|
Week 15
|
Variation
|
Week 16
|
Week 15
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
2.58
|
2.6
|
-0.02
|
7.08
|
7.8
|
-0.72
|
|
North China
|
23.77
|
24.72
|
-0.95
|
23.05
|
23.55
|
-0.5
|
|
Shandong
|
9.32
|
8.825
|
0.495
|
9.62
|
9.575
|
0.045
|
|
East China
|
44.4
|
44.77
|
-0.37
|
34.2
|
31.46
|
2.74
|
|
Guangdong
|
13.372
|
14.948
|
-1.576
|
19.99
|
20.05
|
-0.06
|
|
Guangxi
|
13.615
|
12.215
|
1.4
|
12.94
|
11.8
|
1.14
|
|
Fujian
|
7.15
|
7.65
|
-0.5
|
4.2
|
5.4
|
-1.2
|
|
Henan
|
3.4
|
3.46
|
-0.06
|
0.86
|
0.882
|
-0.022
|
|
Sichuan
|
3.4
|
3.9
|
-0.5
|
3.7
|
3.55
|
0.15
|
|
Others
|
11.28
|
10.83
|
0.45
|
1.12
|
1.03
|
0.09
|
|
Total
|
132.287
|
133.918
|
-1.631
|
116.76
|
115.097
|
1.663
|
Comments: soybean oil stocks plummet further this week as opposed to last week, and according to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories till April 20th comes into at 1,322,870 tonnes, generally down 16,310 tonnes by 1.22% from 1,339,180 tonnes on the week and down 85,630 tonnes by 26.08% from 1,408,500 tonnes on the month, nevertheless, the figure is still up 179,570 tonnes by 15.71% from 1,143,300 tonnes for the same week last year. On the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years are around 933,952 tonnes. Generally speaking, demand upon lower prices goes better in recent days, especially that upon lower forward basis, which earns traders applause. According to Cofeed, total turnover this week at China’s main mills come into at 141,000 tonnes, with daily turnover around 28,200 tonnes, higher than a normal level of 20,000 tonnes. Meantime, volume to fulfill in contracts also rise to 1,167,600 tonnes, up 16,630 tonnes from previous week of 1,150,970 tonnes.
Soybean crush nationwide now amounts to 1,805,200 tonnes (1,435,134 tonnes of soybean meal, 324,936 tonnes of soybean oil), generally rising by 6.99% or 118,000 tonnes as opposed to 1,687,200 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing capacity utilization is up to 52.86%, 3.45 percentage points higher than 49.41% last week. Generally speaking, total soybean crush in next week (week 17) is expected to hit a high level of 1.83 Mln tonnes and even to 1.88 Mln tonnes in week 18 based on large soybean arrivals, healthy crush margins and possibly lifted operation rate if most oil mills.
Accordingly, latest estimates for soybean arrivals in May are around 9.2 Mln tonnes, down 0.2 Mln tonnes from last week; around 9.3 Mln tonnes in June and 9.7 Mln tonnes in July. On the whole, the glut of oils for a short time will continue if soybean oil production churns out based on high operation rate in the days ahead.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
