Soybean stockpiles this week continue to pile up in wake of increasing soybean crush when shipments are smooth and soybean arrivals at ports are assured, but the rising pace is evidently slowed down. Till Apr. 20th, stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have further risen to 4,083,200 tonnes from 4,057,000 tonnes, a rise of 26,200 tonnes by 0.64% on the week, but vis-a-vis the same week last year, its stocks are down 1.70% from 4,154,000 tonnes. By and large, if soybean crush increases to 1.80 Mln tonnes or so in next two weeks, stockpiles of soybean would not change a lot next week based on large soybean arrivals, and even to trend up overall in the following four months.

    In contrast, stockpiles of soybean meal this week rise substantially for buyers have little interest in delivery in front of considerable fundamental pressure like improved soybean processing capacity, and meantime soybean meal in outstanding contracts edge up. Till April 20th, total stocks in costal major areas come in at 950,200 tonnes, up 165,100 tonnes by 21.02% from 785,100 tonnes on the week, but when compared with 617,200 tonnes a year ago, stocks are still up 53.95%. In comparison, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts are increased to 5,961,700 tonnes, generally up 9,800 tonnes by 0.16% as opposed to 5,951,900 tonnes last week, and up 47.42% from 4,043,800 tonnes on a year-on-year basis. On the whole, soybean meal stocks next week are expected to ratchet up if the operation rate is further improved helped by sufficient soybeans and healthy crush margins. 

                    Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

            Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

          Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years