Today is 04/27/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on April 24th

2018-04-24 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on April 24th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans continued to plummet overnight, the same trend going to soybean meal today on DCE, where domestic soybean meal spots are also weighed down, yet turnover presents light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,100 to 3,170 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,200 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,100-3,150 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,150-3,170 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,160-3,170 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,170 yuan/tonne). US soybean are now under pressure for one reason that no new orders for soybean are received from China in time of the trade spat between two economies, and for another that some farmers in Brazil engage themselves in soybean sales. Notably, overflowing soybean meal in some oil mills have contributed to machine halt for meal stockpiles have risen to 950,000 tonnes by 21% on the week fueled by large soybean arrivals in April-to-July period, lucrative soybean crush margins and good processing capacity and that consumption of meals in end users is still low factored in damage in pigs and poultry industry and off-season aquatic raising, therefore some crusher in Jiangsu are strongly inclined to make shipments and to urge traders to take delivery in response to these burdensome stockpiles. On this note, some mills in Jiangsu even offer negative 20 for April-to-May contract, which no doubt weighs down soybean meal prices. Yet, as the China-US trade war is still under the spotlight, meal spots are hard to fall a lot amid uncertainty in the bilateral trade and crushers' support for the prices. Wisely, buyers had better stay on the sidelines and make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting when price decline go steady. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal drop, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,600-2,670 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10 yuan/tonne over yesterday in part (Guangxi offers 2,590 yuan/tonne; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1809-10; Fujian 2,650 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal for a shorter time is to move sideways factored in grave damage in pigs and poultry industry and off-season aquatic raising but sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed arrivals, especially, domestic new rapeseed will be on market in May. Yet, uncertainty in the trade war and grave crop damage in Argentina will to some degree limit its decline.

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal edge lower in a steady pace, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300-11,400 yuan/tonne; 12,300-12,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, all down 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300 yuan/tonne; 12,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 38000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 28,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till April 22nd, about 658,928 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 19.87% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 2,657,772 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,470 per tonne, USD $1,630 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Intensive fishmeal arrivals at China's main ports in the days to come dampen holders sentiment in sales, consequently, prices offered trend lower amid the strong inclination to make shipments. Accordingly,d fishmeal is probable to be pressured down further for the time being. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: generally, soybean trade at Shandong ports is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, particularly, GM-soybeans for distribution are obviously capped to circulate in the food sector. Prices for imported soybeans at Tianjin port are stable, ranging from 3,450 to 4,330 yuan/tonne. Prices for US soybeans remain high due to higher import costs of soybeans for the moment, and particularly, market speculation now switches to weather in the US soybean growing areas for US soybeans are now in the sowing period, therefore, imported soybean is hard to price down. Otherwise, price upside of imported soybeans will not go out of control in the case that non-GM soybeans sales are dominant at Tianjin ports for US soybean available for market distribution is less and less. On the whole, imported soybeans for the time being may go stable with upward tendency. 

    Daily review on oils: beans ended overnight trading low on CBOT since market players worry that China may no longer purchase US soybean if the trade tension goes on. Accordingly, oils on DCE today also pare gains, with which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots both trend down, yet turnover is still not much. In real term, China in recent days have made no order of US soybean, and may even cancel previous orders, otherwise, China is said to purchase soybeans from Paraguay on weekends. That no doubt drags down futures on CBOT. Fragile fundamentals of oils for the time will continue under the impact of large imported soybean arrivals in April-to-July period, healthy crush margins and exceedingly high operation rate, that is to say, oil spots are to trend down for the time being. However, decline in oils may otherwise be curbed amid crushers' support for the prices, forthcoming weather speculation and unknown results of the negotiation on the trade spat. Wisely, market participants may as well maintain a light inventory level and take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,600-5,760 yuan/tonne, falling 30-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,740-5,750 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,600-5,620 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,990 and 5,110 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,100-5,110 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer basis P1809+100; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,050 yuan/tonne, a decline of 50 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,990 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices down, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,300-6,460 yuan/tonne, falling 20-50 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,350 yuan/tonne; Fujian offers basis 1809-160; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,350 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne). Such bearish factors as large soybean and rapeseed arrivals and accumulating stockpiles of soybean oil and rapeseed oil put pressure on oils market, thereby rapeseed oil is to trade sideways with futures frequently. Whereas, uncertainty in the trade war and forthcoming weather speculation on US soybean sowing will somehow limit its decline. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices remain stable with slight fluctuations. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are around 1,775 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), up 5-15 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) come into at 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,870-1,890 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Though 11.84 Mln tonnes (revised) of corn have been transacted in first two auctions, another 7 Mln tonnes are reported to be auctioned this week, and If so, corn supply will be sufficiently large amid old corn supplying on market. However, there have implications and repercussions that corn may trade sideways in a stable but downward tendency given relatively sufficient stockpiles in feed sectors and increased caution about spot purchases among deep processors in front of great losses in pigs raising. However, price premium is mostly seen in sales amid less and less supply of high-quality corn in market and good dales of reserved corn, in other words, corn prices are underpinned and limited to trade down. Attentions should still be paid to turnover and any price premium of corn auctioned this week. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum keep firm, around 1,980-2,200 yuan/tonne for US sorghum prices at some ports (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,200 yuan/tonne in part, Nantong 2,100 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,980 yuan/tonne, being flat ; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,500 yuan/tonne, being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley go steady, about 1,820-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Shandong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat). China's Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 38 Announcement of 2018 yesterday, which demonstrated its preliminary decision on US sorghum dumping, in detail, 178.6% deposit was to be levied for US sorghum at ports. In face of possible falling supply of US sorghum after increased import costs, importers now hold onto goods tightly. In other words, grains in market are underpinned by high import costs of barley and Australia's sorghum. With the uncertainty in corn market, sorghum-- the alternative feed ingredient for corn-- is probable to be under impact if corn prices fall further. Prices for grains at ports keep firm with long and short positions mixed, and shorter term, prices will stabilize at a high level.  

(USD $1=CNY 6.307)