Today is 05/09/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on April 25th

2018-04-25 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on April 25th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans on Chicago Board of Trade ratcheted up last night, while soybean meal on Dalian Commodity Exchange today keeps rangebound. Domestic soybean meal spots fluctuate in a steady pace, yet turnover is not much though lower prices do attract some deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,080 to 3,160 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,180-3,190 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,080-3,130 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,120-3,150 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,150-3,160 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,140-3,160 yuan/tonne). As Trump said that a high-level delegation of US administration headed by the US Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative would pay their visits to China on May 3rd and 4th to settle the worrisome trade spat, US soybeans now bear the pressure amid speedy sowing progress with the help of rising temperature. Worthy of noticing, heavy soybean meal stockpiles in some oil mills have contributed to machine halt for one reason that stockpiles have risen to 950,000 tonnes by 21% on the week attributed to large soybean arrivals in April-to-July period, lucrative crush margins and exceedingly high processing capacity and for another that consumption of meals in end users is still low factored in damage in pigs and poultry industry and off-season aquatic raising, therefore some crushers are strongly inclined to make shipments and urge traders to take delivery in response to that. On this note, some mills even offer basis negative 20 or even negative 50 for April-to-May contract, which means the greater pressure soybeans bear. Notwithstanding, soybean meal spots have trouble moving low amid lingering nerves of the trade tension and crushers’ support for the prices, instead, spots are more likely to trade sideways in a tight range in line with futures. Wisely, buyers had better stay on the sidelines and make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal rise, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,600-2,670 yuan/tonne, rising by 30-50 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,620 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-10 for basis; Fujian 2,700 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal is now seen boosted and fueled by falling stockpiles in coastal areas and the start of aquatic raising as temperature rises. Nevertheless, threats to rapeseed meal prices still exist if the trade spat is defused, large imported rapeseed and domestic new rapeseed in May are on market.  

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal edge lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300-11,400 yuan/tonne; 12,300-12,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300 yuan/tonne; 12,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 38000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 29,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,470 per tonne, USD $1,630 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,700 per tonne, USD $1,800 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. A pronounced pile-up of fishmeal stockpiles and good fishing outlook in Peru dampen holders sentiment in sales, consequently, they have strong inclination to make shipments. Accordingly, fishmeal is probable to be pressured down further for the time being.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: generally, soybean trade at Shandong ports is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, particularly, GM-soybeans for distribution are obviously capped to circulate in the food sector. Prices for imported soybeans at Tianjin port are stable, ranging from 3,450 to 4,330 yuan/tonne. On the whole, imported soybean prices for the time being go stable further and have trouble moving high before a possible negotiation between China and the US. 

    Daily review on oils: as bargain-hunting came out in the market after futures prices plunged to a nadir since April 6th in the morning, US soybeans and soybean meal ended the overnight trading a tad high. Whereas, oil futures domestically move downward today under the pressure of falling crude oil and possible settlement of the trade conflicts. Accordingly, domestic soybean oil spots edge down in a steady pace and palm oil spots are a tad high otherwise. No doubt, turnover of spots is still not much though that upon lower basis still attract some deals. US soybeans overall now trade sideways with downward tendency for US soybeans in recent two weeks have lost its place in China's market stemming from the trade tension. Though stockpiles of soybean oil are a tad lower, overwhelming glut of oils continues backed by large imported soybean arrivals in April-to-July period, healthy crush margins and exceedingly high operation rate, that is to say, soybean oil spots are to trend down for the time being. However, oils may have trouble trading down substantially amid unknown results of the negotiation on the trade spat, to illustrate, a high-level delegation of US administration is said to visit China on 3rd and 4th next month for the negotiation, if it fails, those proposed tariffs will be carried out as planned. Wisely, market participants may as well maintain a light inventory level and take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,590-5,740 yuan/tonne, decreasing by 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,740 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,720 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,590 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,990 and 5,110 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,090-5,110 yuan/tonne, being flat; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer basis P1809+100; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,050 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 4,990 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,080 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices up, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,300-6,460 yuan/tonne, up 20-50 yuan/tonne in part (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,350 yuan/tonne; Fujian offers basis 1809-160; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,360 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne). Such bearish signals as large soybean and rapeseed arrivals and accumulating stockpiles of soybean oil and rapeseed oil hang over oils market, and additionally, a possible negotiation between China and the US also puts a bearish impact on the market domestically. That is to say, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways with futures frequently. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast come into at 1,570-1,730 yuan/tonne, some down 10-20 yuna/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,775 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), unchanged from yesterday. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne, basically unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,870-1,890 yuan/tonne, remaining flat over yesterday. Though 11.84 Mln tonnes of corn have been transacted, another 7 Mln tonnes are to be auctioned this week, and there are ideas in the marketplace today that another 8 Mln tonnes of corn may be put into market on May 3rd and 4th. If so, corn supply will be sufficiently large. However, there have implications that corn is possible to trade weaker given relatively sufficient stockpiles in feed sectors and increased caution about spot purchases among deep processors in front of great losses in pigs raising. However, less and less supply of and rigid demand of good-quality corn in market give support to corn prices and limit the decline. Market participants had better give attention to turnover and any price premium of corn auctioned this week. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum keep firm, around 1,980-2,200 yuan/tonne for US sorghum prices at some ports (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,200 yuan/tonne in part, Nantong 2,100 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,500 yuan/tonne, being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley go steady, about 1,820-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Shandong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat). China's Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 38 Announcement of 2018 yesterday, which demonstrated its preliminary decision on US sorghum dumping, in detail, 178.6% deposit was to be levied for US sorghum at ports. In face of possible falling supply of US sorghum after increased import costs, importers now hold onto goods tightly. Furthermore, as supply of domestic sorghum goes less and less, some mills turn to imported sorghum despite high import costs of barley and Australia's sorghum. In other words, grains prices in market are underpinned where prices for sorghum are likely to rise. With the uncertainty in corn market, sorghum-- the alternative feed ingredient for corn-- is probable to be under impact if corn prices fall further and is limited to price up if possible. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.317)