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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on April 28th

2018-04-28 www.cofeed.com
    Today(on April 28th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans ended overnight trading up impressively, on the other side, meals on DCE after May Day are expected to trend up though Dalian Commodity Exchange closed today. Soybean meal spots today are mostly unquoted amid some a tad higher, yet lower prices may attract buyers to make replenishment. Overall turnover is still not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,090 to 3,170 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,170 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,090-3,100 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,100-3,120 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,100-3,120 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,120-3,140 yuan/tonne). US soybeans overnight on CBOT were further fueled for the reason that market players showed great concerns about soybean meal reduction resulting from grave soybean damage in parched Argentina, and for another that Canada was said to lower its areas planted for rapeseed by 7% and for soybean to around 6.4 Mln acres, far below last year's 7.3 Mln acres, at the same time, a mild rally finally came to soybean meal after consecutive sessions of declines. Notwithstanding, idle plants and limited production due to bloated meal are mostly seen in facilities when stockpiles keep accumulating even though consumption of meals in end users is still low factored in damage in pigs and poultry industry. On this note, soybean meal spots bear considerable pressure and have limited additional upward potential for its prices. On the whole, soybean meal may price down unless weather conditions for US soybean sowing go worse or a consultative solution to the trade dispute is not reached after May Day. Wisely, buyers had better make replenishment upon bargain hunting instead of chasing high. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal plummet, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,580-2,660 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,580 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1809-10; Fujian 2,650 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne). Though lowered stockpiles of rapeseed meal in South China last week-- down to 35,000 tonnes by 2.2 % on the week-- boosted the meal market, seemingly eased trade tension and heavy stockpiles of soybean meal put pressure on rapeseed meal. On the note, continuous supply of domestic new rapeseed expected in May but generally light demand fail to underpin rapeseed meal, therefore shorter term, rapeseed meal is to move sideways tracking futures. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal edge lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,100-11,300 yuan/tonne; 12,100-12,300 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,400-12,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,200 yuan/tonne; 12,100 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,500 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 38000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,440 per tonne, USD $1,600 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,550 per tonne, USD $1,650 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. As Peruvian futures in the outer go weaker and weaker, bearish factors like light domestic demand govern fishmeal in market, such being the case, fishmeal is to trade weaker in near future. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: generally, soybean trade at Shandong ports is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, particularly, GM-soybeans for distribution are obviously capped to circulate in the food sector. Prices for imported soybeans at Tianjin port are stable, ranging from 3,450 to 4,330 yuan/tonne. As Trump said that a delegation of US administration headed by the US Treasury Secretary and the Trade Representative would pay their visits to China on May 3rd and 4th, a consultative solution to the dispute may be reached. Otherwise, price upside of imported soybeans will not go out of control in the case that non-GM soybeans sales are dominant at Tianjin ports for they are sufficient in the market. Additionally, imported soybeans have trouble moving high amid uncertainty in China-the US trade dispute. On the whole, imported soybeans for the time being mainly go stable and move sideways in a tight range, therefore market players are advised to give attention to the trade spat later. 

    Daily review on oils:  US soybeans and soybean meal overnight priced up, boosted by robust demand for soybean meal, yet by striking contrast, US soybean oil was weighed down by active arbitrage of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. Whereas, domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots are mostly unquoted amid some stable quotes for Dalian Commodity Exchange closes the market today, yet turnover is still not much. The rally in US soybeans overnight mainly stemmed from grave soybean damage in Argentina and reported lessened areas planted for rapeseed and soybean in Canada. Additionally, in the context of rising idle plants due to overflowing soybean meal, soybean crush this week has plummeted to 1.72 Mln tonnes by 5% on the week, which somehow curbs decline in oils since stockpiles of soybean oils are a tad lower. yet, such factors as large imported soybean arrivals, lucrative crush margins and recovered operation rate later still contribute to the pile-up of oils. That is to say, oil prices will not suffer from great ups and downs, but to trade sideways in line with futures frequently. Wisely, buyers may as well make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting instead of chasing too high, and give attention to the results of US-China talks later. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,560-5,730 yuan/tonne, part of which fluctuating by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,700-5,710 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders stop to report, Guangzhou traders 5,560-5,580 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly unquoted, but some up 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,090-5,110 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao, Zhangjiagang traders, Guangzhou and Xiamen traders stop to report). 


    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil go steady, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,250-6,490 yuan/tonne, being flat (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Fujian stops to report; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,300 yuan/tonne). Such bearish signals as lager soybean and rapeseed arrivals and accumulating stockpiles of oils backed by good crush margins and high processing rate hang over oils market, to be sure, stockpiles of rapeseed oil last week in South China rose to 51,000 tonnes by 1.9% on the week, under such circumstances, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways with futures frequently. Notwithstanding, uncertainty in the talks expected to come and forthcoming weather speculation about US soybean sowing may put a cap on its decline. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable though some are a tad lower. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,840-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are flat at 1,745 yuan/tonne. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan port (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,740-1,750 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne upon the lowest price from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong come in at 1,860 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. As 8 Mln tonnes of corn is to flow into market on May 3rd and 4th amid previous auctioned corn supplying, corn supply later will be sufficiently large. That basically finished acquisition subsidy for deep processors in northeastern China and increased caution about purchases among businesses no doubt drag down corn prices the time supply overwhelmingly dwarfs demand and feed consumption is relatively low. Accordingly, traders now would like to hold onto goods seeing profits are greatly lowered even though corn prices in some Shandong businesses still ratchet up. Yet, with the recovered demand for feed ingredient later, good-quality corn may take the priority in prices. Market participants had better give attention to trade prices of corn auctioned for market guidance.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum rise steadily, among which US sorghum prices at 2,000-2,220 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,200-2,220 yuan/tonne in part, being flat; Nantong 2,100 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 2,000-2,020 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,120 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,500 yuan/tonne and Shandong 2,560 yuan/tonne, both being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley go steady, about 1,800-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Shandong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,800-1,820 yuan/tonne). Since imports of sorghum later would be few under the impact of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” wineries strongly intend to purchase imported sorghum for the moment and holders otherwise prefer to hoard goods and price up, in this case, sorghum at northern ports prices up today. Yet on the other hand, uncertainty in corn market remains and falling corn prices, if possible, would weigh on grains at ports. Generally speaking, barley and sorghum shorter term will not suffer from great ups and downs, but to run at a high level overall. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.33)