Today(on April 26th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans overnight edged up, while soybean meal today on DCE still pares gains, where domestic soybean meal spots are also weighed down. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 3,080 to 3,160 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,160 yuan/tonne, Shandong 3,080-3,130 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,100-3,130 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,140-3,160 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,140-3,140 yuan/tonne). Soybean meal spot prices fall further for one reason that stockpiles keep accumulating attributed to large soybean arrivals in April-to-July period, lucrative crush margins and exceedingly high processing capacity, and for another that consumption of meals in end users is still low factored in damage in pigs and poultry industry and off-season aquatic raising, such being the cases, heavy stockpiles in some oil mills no doubt contribute to idle plants. Notwithstanding, soybean meal spots have trouble moving low significantly amid lingering nerves of the trade tension and crushers' support for the prices for a talk about the trade spat is to be arranged when May comes, that is to say, spots are more likely to trade sideways in a tight range in line with futures. Wisely, buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy and make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting if price tumble comes to an end or buy in butches when forward basis is low.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal plummet, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,600-2,680 yuan/tonne with a drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,600 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers basis 1809-10; Fujian 2,680 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal is now put at a bearish stance owing to somewhat relieved trade tension, and furthermore, meals in domestic market are dragged down by high crush margins, sufficiently large imported soybean and rapeseed arrivals and domestic new rapeseed supplying in May. Yet one need not to be anxious about that for meal demand in aquatic raising will goes well with rising temperature, that is to say, rapeseed meal shorter term is not to fall a lot, but to move sideways tracking futures in a tight range.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal edge lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300-11,400 yuan/tonne; 12,300-12,400 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 11,300 yuan/tonne; 12,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,600 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 38000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 30,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till April 24th, about 813,943 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 24.54% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 2502,757 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru stays at USD $1,470 per tonne, USD $1,630 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,550 per tonne, USD $1,650 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. A pronounced pile-up of fishmeal stockpiles amid unsatisfactory demand dampens holders sentiment in sales, and accordingly, fishmeal is probable to be pressured down further for the time being.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: generally, soybean trade at Shandong ports is still stumbled when strict port inspections are under way, particularly, GM-soybeans for distribution are obviously capped to circulate in the food sector. Prices for imported soybeans at Tianjin port are stable, ranging from 3,450 to 4,330 yuan/tonne. On the whole, imported soybean prices for the time being go stable further and have trouble moving high before a possible negotiation between China and the US.
Daily review on oils: export outlook of US soybeans is anticipated to be good given trade tension is somewhat relieved. US soybean and soybean meal on CBOT ended overnight trading up, yet by striking contrast, active arbitrage of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil weighed down US soybean oil. Accordingly, Dalian oils continue to come down today, where domestic soybean oil spots go down, palm oil spots mostly price steadily amid some declines, yet turnover is still not much. US soybeans overall are under pressure on account that good weather condition in its producing areas helps speed up sowing progress. Furthermore, overwhelming glut of oils continues backed by large imported soybean arrivals in April-to-July period, healthy crush margins and exceedingly high operation rate, in other words, those bearish signals including a possible negotiation of the trade war are reacting and therefore oil spots are to trend down for the time being. Wisely, market participants may as well maintain a light inventory level.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,590-5,740 yuan/tonne, decreasing by 20-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,680-5,690 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,740 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,590 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,990 and 5,110 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,090-5,110 yuan/tonne, being flat; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer basis P1809+100; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,050 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 4,990 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders stop to report).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices down, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,290-6,420 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Great Ocean in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 6,300 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne; Fujian offers basis 1809-160; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,320 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne). Such bearish signals as low demand and accumulating stockpiles of soybean oil and rapeseed oil backed by good crush margins, high processing rate hang over oils market, under such circumstances, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways with futures frequently. Notwithstanding, uncertainty in the talks to come and forthcoming weather speculation about US soybean sowing may put a cap on its decline.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for part of domestic corns are mixed. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some further up 10 yuan/tonne from yesterday, by contrast, purchasing prices in the northeast keep flat at 1,570-1,730 yuan/tonne. While purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning are mostly around 1,760-1,765 yuan/tonne (volume weight 690-700 g/L), generally down 10-15 yuan/tonne. Drying corn of Liaoning and Jilin at Bayuquan ports (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) are pegged at 1,750-1,760 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonene from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,870 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne upon the highest price from yesterday. Corn auction in market becomes a normality as 7 Mln tonnes this week and 8 Mln tonnes next week are projected to be in market, if so, supply pressure will be larger and larger. That relatively sufficient stockpiles in feed sectors and increased caution about spot purchases among deep processors in front of fragile demand for the present drag down corn prices. However, high turnover rate of corn auctioned and common price premium including basis, fees for freight and trade somehow underpin corn prices in market. Shorter term, corn overall is mainly to trade weak though good-quality corn takes the priority in prices seeing less and less supply. Market participants had better give attention to turnover and any price premium of corn auctioned this week.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum keep firm, around 1,980-2,200 yuan/tonne for US sorghum prices at some ports (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,200 yuan/tonne in part, Nantong 2,100 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne, being flat, Shanghai 2,120 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,500 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,560 yuan/tonne, being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley go steady, about 1,820-1,940 yuan/tonne at main ports (Shandong offers 1,940 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,820-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat). China's Ministry of Commerce issued the No. 38 Announcement of 2018, which demonstrated its preliminary decision on US sorghum dumping, in detail, 178.6% deposit was to be levied for US sorghum at ports. In face of possible falling supply of US sorghum after increased import costs, importers now hold onto goods tightly and some winery on the other hand are strongly inclined to purchase imported sorghum. Generally speaking, grains in the market are underpinned by such bullish factors as high import costs of barley and Australia's sorghum. Notwithstanding, with the uncertainty in corn market, sorghum and barley-- the alternative feed ingredients for corn-- are probable to be under impact if corn prices fall further, but shorter term, prices of sorghum and barley will remain strong.
(USD $1=CNY 6.329)