Soybean stockpiles this week are a tad lower for soybean arrivals at ports have not yet been unloaded and idle plants are on the increase after bloated soybean meal. Till May 4th, stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas are seen downsized to 3,977,400 tonnes from 4,022,500 tonnes, a further reduction of 45,100 tonnes by 1.12% on the week, and vis-a-vis the same week last year, its stocks are also down 2.99% from 4,100,000 tonnes. By and large, stockpiles of soybean would pile up overall based on assured large soybean arrivals later and not much soybean crush in the following two weeks.

    Soybean meal overall is under considerable fundamental pressure, stemming from the huge losses in pigs raising and delayed aquatic raising after heavy rains in southern areas. No doubt, stockpiles of soybean meal this week rise substantially on account that its shipments are weakened by buyers’ hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for they have little interest in meal purchases. Till May 4th, total stocks in costal major areas come in at 1,215,800 tonnes, up 147,100 tonnes by 13.76% from 1,068,700 tonnes on the week, and when compared with 833,900 tonnes a year ago, stocks are also up 45.78%. Generally speaking, total soybean crush in week 19 is basically around 1.5 Mln tonnes, and would narrow its rises in the week after next seeing increasing idle plants, but worthy of noticing, total crush is to keep at a higher level.

    Since the week ranges from late April to early May, contracts of soybean meal in mills extend a month, which thereby leads to a substantial increase of volumes to be fulfilled in contracts. Till May 4th, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts increase to 6,324,300 tonnes, generally up 941,600 tonnes by 17.49% as opposed to 5,382,700 tonnes last week, and up 30.93% from 4,830,000 tonnes on a year-on-year basis. 

              Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

             Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

         Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years