Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 8th

2018-05-08 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 8th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans on CBOT and Dalian meals both fall sharply owing to an impressive tumble of soybean spots in Brazil, accordingly, domestic soybean meal spots trade lower today. Turnover is still light as buyers mostly take a wait-and-watch attitude, but forward low basis still attract deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,990 to 3,060 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20-40 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,060 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,990-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 3,000-3030 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,020-3,040 yuan/tonne). On one hand, import costs are seen falling sharply as soybean basis plunges to more than a half when compared with the highest in April after a slump in Brazil's real, and meantime soybean processing capacity goes well in mills where operation is not stopped by overflowing meals, backed by good crush margins domestically and sufficiently large soybeans at ports. On the other hand, grave losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas slow down delivery of soybean meal, which contributes to an accumulation of soybean meal and a large-scale machine halt in mills, in detail, stockpiles of soybean meal in coastal rise substantially to 1.21 Mln tonnes by 13% on the week. Therefore such considerable pressure from fundamentals put down soybean meal prices. Talks about the trade spat will go forward as China representatives schedule a visit to Washington next Monday, and generally soybean meal is to trade low if such dispute in between is not heated up. Wisely, buyers may as well stand on the sidelines. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,490-2,580 yuan/tonne, falling 40-80 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,540 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,560 yuan/tonne, down 80 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,580 yuan/tonne, falling 40 yuan/tonne). Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are mostly seen overflowing in mills owing to unsatisfactory demand in the end users. Meantime, ample rapeseed and soybean later would put down meals in market, to illustrate, approximately 0.42 tonnes of imported rapeseed in May, 28.5 Mln soybean arrivals in May-to-July period, and gradual supply of domestic new rapeseed from next week. Given that, buyers are suggested to stand on the sidelines for rapeseed meal shorter term is likely to move sideways. Additionally, China is to visit Washington next Monday for further discussion on the trade spat, and US president Trump is said to be optimistic about an agreement after hearing briefings in the Monday morning. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal drop, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 400-500 yuan/tonne over yesterday; 1,1500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, falling100 yuan/tonne against yesterday; 12,200-12,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content with a reduction of 100 yuan/tonne. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,600 yuan/tonne, down 300 yuan/tonne form yesterday, 11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 100 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Port stocks: Hangpu has 41,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 34,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 4,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 5,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 6th, about 1,434,914 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 43.26% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,881,786 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,380 per tonne, USD $1,540 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Manufacturers in Peru are generally under pressure on account that fishing in Peru is generally smooth with more than 40% finished. Given lower and lower fishmeal prices in the outer and the overall pile-up of fishimeal at ports domestically, fishmeal on the domestic market is put to a bearish stance, in that fishmeal is to trade weaker in near future. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable amid some declines, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,430-4,290 yuan/tonne, some down 30 yuan/tonne from last week, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,650-3,680 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Since trade dispute between China and the US has trouble settling at the very short time, lingering nerves are still among market participants. Shorter term, imported soybean spots have resistance to fall, instead, probably trade sideways in accordance with market news. If the trade spat is finally resolved, imported soybean will price down further, but price up if heated up, therefore it is necessary to pay close attention to the new progress. 

    Daily review on oils: vulnerable to weakened spots prices in Brazil and long positions closing, US soybeans overnight plunged by more than 2% with US soybean meal involved, but soybean oil otherwise were boosted by strong crude oil. Accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange today trend down, of which soybean oil futures fall mildly, and domestic soybean oil spots are also seen a tad lower. Turnover upon spots is still not much though lower basis still attracts deals. As a matter of fact, futures on CBOT tumble a lot, almost to the 1,000 cents mark when two shipments of soybeans are subject to default and no new soybean purchases are expected according to China. Brazil soybean basis falls to more than a half of the highest attained in April given that Brazil's real slumps significantly amid stronger US dollars. That puts down import costs for soybeans, and such bearish factors as profitable soybean crush margins, large soybeans at ports later also weigh on oil spots. Yet, affected by delayed delivery and a large-scale machine halt, stockpiles of soybean oil now come into at 1.3 Mln tonnes or so amid good demand for lower basis, such being the case, oil futures and pots domestically have the resistance and limitation to fall factored in large uncertainty in China-US trade, in other word, oils is to move sideways in a tight range tracking future for the moment. That requires buyers to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. By the way, China is to visit Washington next Monday for further discussion, and US president Trump is said to be optimistic about an agreement after hearing briefings in the Monday morning. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,600-5,750 yuan/tonne, down 10-40 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,730-5,740 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,750 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,600 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,960-5,080 yuan/ton, a reduction of 10 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 5,070-5,080 yuan/tonne, keeping flat; Rizhao traders have not reported the prices; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,040 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,960 yuan/tonne, Xiamen 5,040-5,050 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil decline, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,310-6,460 yuan/tonne, decreasing by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-200; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,350 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne). There is limited additional downward potential for oil prices for the time being attributed to increasing idle plants after bloated soybean meal and rapeseed meal. Nevertheless, ample rapeseed and soybean later no doubt would let down oil performance, particularly, around 0.42 Mln tonnes of rapeseed is to imported in May with as high as 28.5 Mln tonnes of soybean arrivals in May-to-July period, and gradual supply of domestic new rapeseed starts from next week. Given that, buyers had better take a light position for rapeseed oil shorter term is probable to trade sideways. Additionally, China's representatives schedule to visit Washington for further discussion about the trade dispute next Monday, and US president Trump is said to hold a optimistic attitude toward this issue after hearing briefings on the talks in the Monday morning. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne amid some fluctuations. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne and 1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged as opposed to yesterday. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,710-1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,840 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Reserved corn auction no doubt becomes a normality in market, and it is said that about 8 Mln tonnes of corn are to be auctioned this week. Shorter term, corn is to trade weaker in market for one reason that its supply are sufficiently growing counted in former traded volumes of corn auctioned, and for another that businesses in the downstream keep cautious about corn purchases and mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude toward such overwhelming supply. Otherwise, part of Shandong businesses price up corn of natural drying fractionally to attract good-quality corn in case of less and less supply of new corn and corn of good quality. And corn prices are to trend up if feed sectors have rigid demand for corn of good quality. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum turn stable amid declines, among which US sorghum prices at 2,000-2,220 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,200 yuan/tonne in part, while some are negotiable; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 2,000-2,020 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,450 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,550 yuan/tonne, both being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia both offer 3,000 yuan/tonne, being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley turn stable, about 1,790-1,980 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, holding the line; Nantong 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,790-1,810 yuan/tonne, being flat; Ukraine barley: 1,820 yuan/tonne). It is said that another 7.99 Mln tonnes of corn are to be auctioned on May 10th and 11th next week amid total 16,971,400 tonnes of traded volumes in April, if it turns out to be the case, corn supply is largely on the increase. Falling corn prices still weigh on grains market, particularly, grains like sorghum and barley price down further amid light demand in feed sectors. Notably, declining sorghum imports and high costs still give some support and limit the declines, in that market players had better pay attention to latest news for guidance. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.367)