Today (on May 9th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: US soybean rebounded last night, accordingly, meals on DCE today come off low opens, but still run close to the early closing. Soybean meal spots on the domestic market gradually ease declines and go stable, notably, turnover upon lower prices turns better. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,970 to 3,060 yuan/tonne, a steady drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,060 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,970-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,980-3,010 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne). On one hand, soybean processing capacity is assured and backed by good crush margins domestically and large soybean arrivals, yet on the other hand, grave losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas slow down delivery of soybean meal, which contributes to an accumulation of soybean meal and a large-scale machine halt in mills. That fundamental pressure puts down soybean meal prices. Whereas, price decline is somehow seen eased and weakened after several days of quick move, therefore shorter term, meal prices would keep steady at a lower level for lack of bullish factors. Buyers who are deficient in meals can take chance to make replenishment on a small scale, and fix eyes on USDA supply & demand report for guidance. Accordingly, the report is said to be a little bit bullish with stocks revised lower.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal are mixed, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,490-2,600 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 20-40 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,560 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,600 yuan/tonne, growing by 20 yuan/tonne). Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are mostly seen overflowing in mills owing to unsatisfactory demand in the end users. Meantime, ample rapeseed and soybean later and gradual supply of domestic new rapeseed in areas like Yunnan and Sichuan provinces also put down meals in market. Yet if factored in a prospective aquatic raising and uncertainty in the trade spat, rapeseed meal shorter term has trouble moving downward significantly, and may likely trade sideways in a tight range. Market players should still keep an eye on China-US talks next Monday, and buyers otherwise can take chance to make replenishment if out of stock and be of great caution when chasing high.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal are a tad lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,200-12,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,600 yuan/tonne; 11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 35,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 5,000 tonnes. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,380 per tonne, USD $1,540 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Given generally smooth fishing in Peru and overall pile-up of fishimeal at ports, fishmeal holders have great inclination to make shipments under such pressure, in that fishmeal is to trade weaker in near future.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,430-4,290 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,650-3,680 yuan/tonne from yesterday. A near 7% slide in the value of the Brazilian real versus strong US dollar has seen Brazil basis of soybeans go from the most expensive to the cheapest, in detail, the real has weakened from 3.32 versus the dollar to 3.55 in the past month , which therefore boosts China's demand for Brazil soybean. That large reduction of import costs for Brazilian soybeans exert bearish pressure on imported soybeans in market. Since trade dispute between China and the US has trouble settling at the very short time, lingering nerves are still among market participants. Shorter term, imported soybean spots have resistance to fall, and may probably trade sideways in accordance with market news. If the trade spat is finally resolved, imported soybean will price down further, but price up if heated up, therefore it is necessary to pay close attention to any new progress.
Daily review on oils: US soybeans and soybean meal ended overnight trading up, yet US soybean oil otherwise was dragged down by crude oils. The rally of soybean and soybean meal is mainly attributed to two reasons: one is that bargain hunting appeared after contract basis for July delivery plunged to one-month low this Monday, and another is that market speculative investors show great concerns for the weather condition in time of US soybean planting. Accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange today go up mildly, with which most domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots rise. Turnover of spots is not much though that upon lower basis is good. Shorter term, US soybeans will to a large degree keep rangebound for huge losses of Argentina's soybeans and weather speculation for US soybean planting confront with trade tension between China and the US. At the same time, oils spots may go stronger and trade sideways in a tight range tracking futures factored in falling stockpiles of soybean oil and considerable pressure from sufficiently large soybean arrivals, and worthy of noticing, delayed delivery of soybean meal and increasing idle plants have contributed to stockpiles reduction and robust demand upon lower basis, which thereby improves meal performance. China representatives are said to visit the US for further talks seeing trade spat still go forward, additionally, monthly USDA report on supply and demand is said to be a little bit bullish according to market participants. Buyers may as well take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, or make small replenishment if out of stock, and take care if chasing high.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,640-5,780 yuan/tonne, most up 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,750-5,760 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,700 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,640-5,650 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,020-5,100 yuan/tonne, increasing by 20-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,090-5,100 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,080 yuan/tonne, a rise of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou traders 5,020 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,080 yuan/tonne, a rise of 40 yuan/tonne; Rizhao Huanghai stops to report).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,410-6,560 yuan/tonne, increasing by 50-100 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,805-200 for January delivery; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,450 yuan/tonne, up 100 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal shorter term is likely to move sideways for impressive price gap between rapeseed oil and its competing oils, soybean oil and palm oil, goes against rapeseed oil consumption on one side, and mass domestic rapeseed is to supply the market very soon. Market players should still keep an eye on China-US talks next Monday.
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, prices for domestic corn prices remain stable amid slight fluctuations. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 10-22 yuan/tonne further from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne and 1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged as opposed to yesterday. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,710-1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong basically keep flat at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Generally, corn is to trade weaker further in market for one reason that its supply are sufficiently growing counted in former traded volumes of corn auctioned and another 8 Mln tonnes of corn to be auctioned this week, and for another that businesses in the downstream keep cautious about corn purchases and mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude toward such overwhelming supply. Otherwise, corn prices are supported and have limited downward potential for part of holders prefer to hold onto goods and support its prices in case of less and less supply of new corn and corn of good quality and lifted freight in northeastern China recently. On the whole, corn prices domestically will keep at a lower level for the time being.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum turn stable amid declines, among which US sorghum prices at 1,990-2,220 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,200 yuan/tonne in part, while some are negotiable; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,990-2,000 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,450 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,550 yuan/tonne, both being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley turn stable, about 1,790-1,930 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,920-1,930 yuan/tonne, holding the line; Nantong 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,790-1,810 yuan/tonne, being flat; Ukrainian barley: 1,820 yuan/tonne). It is said that another 7.99 Mln tonnes of corn are to be auctioned on May 10th and 11th next week amid total 16,971,400 tonnes of traded volumes in April, if it turns out to be the case, supply pressure will be considerable. Falling corn prices still weigh on grains market, particularly, grains like sorghum and barley price down further amid light demand in feed sectors. Notably, declining sorghum imports and high costs still give some support and limit the declines, in that market players had better pay attention to latest news for guidance.
(USD $1=CNY 6.378)