Today (on May 11th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows:
Plant protein:
Daily review on soybean meal: beans ended overnight trading up on CBOT for the WASDE report was a little bit bullish as market expectation, by contrast, meal futures on CBOT today come off low opens amid little surprise in the report. Domestically, soybean meal spots fall further but in a steady pace, and turnover is not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,960 to 3,040 yuan/tonne, a steady drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,040 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,970-2,980 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,960-2,980 yuan/tonne). Mills which have no risk in bloated meals would like to improve processing rate, getting support from large soybean supply and good crush margins. Yet on the other hand, huge losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas stumble delivery of soybean meal, which leads to increased stockpiles of soybean meal and widespread shutdown of plants in mills. That fundamental pressure no doubt puts down soybean meal prices. The double hammer blow of drought followed by excessive rain during harvest time of soybean in Argentina further cuts its production by 1-1.5 Mln tonnes, yet after consecutive sessions of declines, falling pace of soybean meal is somehow slowed down and eased. And notably, though China's representatives are scheduled to visit Washington next Monday to resume trade talk, chances for a final agreement are fairly slim, on this point, there is a downward potential for soybean meal prices amid uncertainty in talks. Wisely, buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy and keep an eye on the trade spat under way.
Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal drop in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,470-2,550 yuan/tonne, falling 10-20 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,480 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,540 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,550 yuan/tonne). Traders now shift their attention to burdensome meal stockpiles as there is no big shock in USDA report released overnight. Generally speaking, rapeseed meal shorter term will move sideways tracking futures for one that grave losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas weigh on rapeseed meal, and for another that rapeseed and soybean imported are sufficiently large based on good crush margins despite idle plants and forthcoming mass domestic rapeseed supplying. Given rapeseed meal has limited upward potential, buyers may as well take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.
Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal are a tad lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,200-12,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,600 yuan/tonne; 11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 38,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 8th, about 1,553,033 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 46.82% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,763,667 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,380 per tonne, USD $1,540 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal on the domestic market is put to a bearish stance since unsatisfying demand in aquatic raising battles with an increasing pile-up of fishmeal at domestic ports, accordingly, fishmeal is to trade weaker in near future.
Oils & Oilseeds:
Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,430-4,290 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,600-3,670 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Market attention is still fixed on trade tensions with regard to imported soybeans. China's Vice Premier, Liu He, will visit Washington next Monday to resume trade talks, told by White House press secretary Sarah Sanders, after a U.S. delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin came away from a visit to Beijing last week. Frankly speaking, trade disputes in a short time are unlikely eased in view of great conflicts in between, therefore imported soybean spots on the whole are to move sideways accordingly. If the trade spat is finally resolved, imported soybean will price down further, but price up if heated up, therefore it is necessary to pay close attention to its any new progress.
Daily review on oils: according to WASDE report, carry-over stocks of US soybeans in year 2018/2019 are estimated to be around 415 Mln bushels, lower than market estimates. Beans on CBOT overnight all trended up, correspondingly, rallies in oils futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange are seen eased for there is no big surprise in USDA report, of which soybean oil futures depreciate. Domestically, some soybean oil spots are a tad lower and palm oil spots keep rangebound in part, whilst turnover is not much. Export of old US soybeans last week plunged by 15% on the week, about 57% lower than the average of former four weeks, which curbs rallies on CBOT. Otherwise, getting support from indications like soaring crude oils, further soybean losses in Argentina, widespread idle plants due to delayed soybean meal delivery, slim chances for a final agreement in trade talks, oils spots will go on a strong note for a short time. Wisely, buyers who have finished replenishment the other day can wait and watch.
Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,660-5,800 yuan/tonne, some falling 10-20 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,760-5,770 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,720 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,800 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,660 yuan/tonne).
Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,050 and 5,170 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-30 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 5,160-5,170 yuan/tonne, being flat; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P09+100 for July-August contract; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,150 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 5,050-5070 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,150 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne).
Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,430-6,590 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,805-200; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,460 yuan/tonne). Given bullish signals in USDA report go as expected, there is limited upward potential for futures, particularly, futures on CBOT last night edged up. Worthy of noticing, Bearish factors still hover over rapeseed oil like the projected flows of reserved rapeseed oil before late May, and more than millions of imported rapeseed oil helped by good import margins. On this point, rapeseed meal shorter term is likely to trade sideways when mass domestic rapeseed is to supply the market very soon. Market players should take care and keep an eye on trade talks next Monday, for pressure on rapeseed oil will persist if trade spat is not heated up
Grains:
Daily review on corn: today, corn prices domestically continue to edge up in a steady pace. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 6-10 yuan/tonne further from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,745 yuan/tonne, 5 yuan/tonne higher than yesterday, and1,685 yuan/tonne for old corn. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Gains of year 2017 left basically reach the bottom with increasingly tight supply of corn of good quality, otherwise, stumbled by challenges like slow shipments and rising freight, corn auction in northeastern China is reduced. Such being the case, some businesses in northeastern China revise up corn buying prices to attract supplying in case of reduced stockpiles. Generally, corn prices have limited upward potential amid overall bearish fundamentals, particularly, corn supply is sufficiently large counted in ongoing corn auction-- a projected 8 Mln tonnes next week-- and former traded volumes of old corn, yet on the other hand, businesses in the downstream keep cautious about corn purchases and mostly take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy seeing such an overwhelming supply. On the whole, corn prices domestically will trade sideways fractionally for the time being, if such, attention should still be paid to latest traded volumes of corn auctioned.
Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum go stable amid some declines, among which US sorghum prices at 1,990-2,180 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,180 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,990-2,000 yuan/tonne, being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,450 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,550 yuan/tonne, both being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne, Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for Australian barley keep stable at about 1,790-1,980 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,790-1,810 yuan/tonne, all being flat). It is said that another 7.99 Mln tonnes of corn are to be auctioned on May 10th and 11th next week amid total 22,247,600 tonnes of traded volumes till May 4th, if it turns out to be the case, corn supply is largely on the increase. Falling corn prices still weigh on grains market, particularly, grains like barley today edge down further amid fragile demand in feed sectors. Notably, declining sorghum imports and high costs still give some support and limit the declines, in that market players had better pay attention to latest news for guidance.
(USD $1=CNY 6.33)