According to Cofeed, the latest statistics of soybean oil stocks and amounts in outstanding contracts in Chinese major areas in week 19 (till May 19th, hereinafter referred to this week) are shown as follows:
Unit: 0’000 tonnes
|
Area/Enterprise
|
Soybean Oil Stocks
|
Soybean Oil in Outstanding Contracts
|
|
|
Week 19
|
Week 18
|
Variation
|
Week 19
|
Week 18
|
Variation
|
|
Northeast China
|
2.55
|
2.57
|
-0.02
|
6.9
|
7.18
|
-0.28
|
|
North China
|
22.97
|
24.47
|
-1.5
|
19.55
|
20.78
|
-1.23
|
|
Shandong
|
11.46
|
11.2
|
0.26
|
9.18
|
8.74
|
0.44
|
|
East China
|
44.95
|
45.83
|
-0.88
|
38.05
|
32.3
|
5.75
|
|
Guangdong
|
10.87
|
11.55
|
-0.68
|
24.81
|
22.02
|
2.79
|
|
Guangxi
|
11.765
|
12.365
|
-0.6
|
12.06
|
11.64
|
0.42
|
|
Fujian
|
7
|
5.8
|
1.2
|
4.53
|
4.28
|
0.25
|
|
Henan
|
3.62
|
3.545
|
0.075
|
1.13
|
1.14
|
-0.01
|
|
Sichuan
|
3.47
|
3.25
|
0.22
|
2.85
|
3.2
|
-0.35
|
|
Others
|
10.03
|
10.1
|
-0.07
|
1.47
|
1.47
|
0
|
|
Total
|
128.685
|
130.68
|
-1.995
|
120.53
|
112.75
|
7.78
|
Comments: soybean oil stocks fall this week, and according to Cofeed, soybean oil in China's business inventories till May 11th is pegged at 1,286,850 tonnes, generally down 19,950 tonnes by 1.52% from 1,306,800 tonnes on the week, and down 91,150 tonnes by 6.61% from 1,378,000 tonnes on the month. As opposed to the same period a year earlier, it is still up 38,850 tonnes by 3.11% from 1,248,000 tonnes, and on the very note, average stocks of soybean oil in recent five years are around 981,640 tonnes.
Attributed to grave losses in pigs industry, feed sectors have little interests in meals buying and prefer to delay soybean meal delivery, which therefore results in increasing idle plants and falling operation rate after bloated meals this week. Generally speaking, national soybean crush this week is around 1,466,250 tonnes (1,165,668 tonnes of soybean meal, 263,925 tonnes of soybean oil), decreasing by 1.01% or 15,000 tonnes vis-a-vis 1,481,250 tonnes last week. Meantime, soybean processing capacity utilization plunges to 42.44%, 0.83 percentage points lower than 43.27% last week. That no doubt cuts down soybean oil production.
According to Cofeed, total soybean crush in week 20 nationwide is expected to be around 1.6 Mln tonnes, and 1.62 Mln tonnes in week 21 based on resumed operation and eased stockpiles after a half month of machine shutdown in some mills.
Figure: Comparison of domestic soybean oil stocks in recent years
