Comment: stockpiles of soybeans this week are seen rising largely owing to large soybean arrivals at ports but lessened processing capacity. Till May 11th, stocks of imported soybeans in China’s major coastal areas have risen to 4,911,000 tonnes from 3,977,400 tonnes, up 933,600 tonnes by 23.47% on the week, and vis-a-vis the same week a year earlier, its stocks are also up 27.24% from 3,859,400 tonnes. By and large, stockpiles of soybean would pile up overall based on assured large soybean arrivals and not much soybean crush in the following weeks-- an average of 1.6 Mln tonnes in next two weeks.

    Total traded volumes of soybean meal this week increase, helped by buyers’ engagement in replenishment making after meals spot prices reach the nadir. On the other hand, with downsized soybean crush, stockpiles of soybean meal are a tad lower though still at a high level, otherwise, volumes in contracts to fulfill still rise up. Till May 11th, total stocks in costal major areas come in at 1,207,400 tonnes, down 8,400 tonnes by 0.89% from 1,215,800 tonnes on the week, but when compared with 873,900 tonnes a year ago, stocks are also up 38.16%. Generally speaking, soybean meal will somehow be eased in stockpiles after a half month of machine halt in some mills, yet stockpiles will not fall a lot factored in resumed operation.

    Till May 11th, soybean meal amounts in outstanding contracts increase to 6,397,900 tonnes, generally up 73,600 tonnes by 1.16% as opposed to 6,324,300 tonnes tonnes last week, and up 42.17% from 4,500,100 tonnes on a year-on-year basis. 

                    Figure 1: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean carry-over stocks in recent years

                Figure 2: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal carry-over stocks in recent years

           Figure 3: Trend of Chinese coastal soybean meal in outstanding contracts in recent years