Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 16th

2018-05-16 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 16th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans further edged low on CBOT overnight after seemingly eased trade tension. That otherwise weighs on China's market. Meals on DCE today plunge greatly, with which domestic soybean meal spots price down, and turnover is still light. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,840 to 2,960 yuan/tonne, a drop of 30-80 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,960 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,900-2,950 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,860-2,870 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,870-2,890 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,880-2,920 yuan/tonne). As the devaluation of Brazilian real has led to a significant drop in soybean import costs, soybean arrivals to be are sufficiently large based on good crush margins. Yet worthy of noticing, such fundamental pressure further weighs down soybean meal as poor demand in feed sectors, overflowing meals backed by large stockpiles, in detail, stockpiles of meals nationwide come in to at 1.32 Mln tonnes, up 38% year on year. Furthermore, US-China talks about the ongoing trade tension matter a lot during May 15th and 19th, though market participants now mostly hold an optimistic attitude toward the issue. Shorter term, soybean meal is to trade weaker in sight provided if trade tension is not heated up, therefore, buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,350-2,400 yuan/tonne, falling 30-70 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,430 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 30 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,430 yuan/tonne, down 70 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,400 yuan/tonne, falling 70 yuan/tonne). Regardless, prices for rapeseed meal tumble a lot in these days, attributed to increasing idle plants after overflowing meals in mills, little transaction is made for buyers would prefer to shun away from market. Meantime, rapeseed meal shorter term is to trade sideways when mass domestic rapeseed is to supply the market very soon, with all taken into consideration, buyers had better stay cautious when buying in. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal drop steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,300-10,400 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 100-200 yuan/tonne over yesterday; 11,200-11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, falling100-300 yuan/tonne against yesterday; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content with a reduction of 100 yuan/tonne. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,100 yuan/tonne, down 200 yuan/tonne form yesterday, 11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 300 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 14th, about 1,879,091 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 56.66% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,437,609 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,380 per tonne, USD $1,540 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal holders are dampened in sales as demand is still sluggish overall, on this point, fishmeal is to trade weaker shorter term. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,670-3,770 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,610-3,770 yuan/tonne from yesterday. The United States has already extended public hearings about the U.S. proposed $50 billion on Chinese products to May 17th from 16th, yet results will only be released on May 22th. Liu He, the Special Envoy, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, China's representative in China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, is said to visit the US from May 16th to 19th, reported by Xinhua news agency. During his visits, talks about the trade tension will be resumed with economic team of U.S., led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. On this point, soybean spots imported are to move sideways as a whole in response to market news. If the trade war is finally resolved, prices for imported soybeans will continue to fall, but pick up if heated up. Close attention should still be paid to the trade war under way. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans edge up owing to somehow eased trade tension and a fresh high crushing of US soybeans in April with nearly 16% growth year on year. Whereas, that relieved tension brings down the market domestically, for oils on DCE today further move down, soybean oil and palm oil spots also price down. Total traded volumes are still not many though lower prices still attract deals. As the real has largely weakened, prices for Brazilian soybeans tumble a lot. That drags down oils performance in market, worsen also by good crush margins. Nevertheless, overflowing soybean meal in mills brings processing capacity down to the lowest, with stockpiles of soybean oil being eased to 1.28 Mln tonnes, and on this point, oils spots otherwise have the limitation to fall. Buyers may as well wait and see and take the US-China talks this week for guidance. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,560-5,680 yuan/tonne, falling 30-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,660-5,670 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,630 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders Y09-40, Guangzhou traders 5,560-5,570 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,010 and 5,110 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,110 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P09+100 for July and August contracts; Zhangjiagang traders offer P09+50; Guangzhou 5,010 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices down, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,330-6,480 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-200; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,400 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne). Attracted by lucrative crush margins, soybean and rapeseed arrivals will be sufficiently large in the following months as large devaluation of Brazilian real sends import costs to a significant low place. As such, domestic rapeseed is to supply the market very soon. Therefore, rapeseed meal shorter term is mainly to trade weak for a short time. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 6-10 yuan/tonne further from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, and1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Domestically, corn prices in part ramp up on account that market participants are inspired after auction of reserved corn comes back to normal, and that demand in market recovers amid insufficient corn of year 2017. Though corn auction forges ahead with another 8 Mln tonnes scheduled on May 24th and 25th, businesses otherwise still keep cautious about corn purchases seeing such an overwhelming supply. On the point, corn prices will trade sideways steadily and fractionally for the time being. From the medium and long run, given poor quality of old corn and tighter corn supply of good quality, corn of good quality will take the priority in prices provided if feed sectors later have rigid demand for it.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, sorghum at ports prices keep firm, among which US sorghum prices at 1,980-2,180 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,180 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai 2,120 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne, while 1,940-1,950 yuan/tonne upon transaction; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,420 yuan/tonne, being flat, Shandong 2,530 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,450 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne, Hinggan League in Inner Mongolia offer 2,800 yuan/tonne, Jilin 2,900 yuan/tonne). At the same time, Australian barley prices down in a steady pace at about 1,810-1,980 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,810-1,830 yuan/tonne). Since imports later would be hit under the impact of “anti-dumping and anti-subsidy” wineries strongly intend to purchase imported sorghum for the moment and importers otherwise prefer to hoard goods. Additionally, corn prices are seen declining, if continues, the alternatives of corn-- sorghum and barley at ports-- would be weighed on. Generally speaking, grains on market are to trade sideways. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.37)