Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 10th

2018-05-10 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 10th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans depreciated on CBOT last night, by contrast, futures prices for meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange move sideways in a tight range in the morning, but then the price rally in Dalian meals in the afternoon shows an increased tendency. Accordingly, domestic soybean meal spots today are mostly stable despite some downs and turnover upon lower prices takes a turn for the better. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,960 to 3,060 yuan/tonne, a steady drop of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,060 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,960-3,000 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,980-3,000 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 3,000-3,020 yuan/tonne). As Argentine peso and Brazilian real suffer from a big devaluation versus strong US dollars, soybean basis offered by Brazil is slashed to a less-than-half level as from May. Such chopped import costs no doubt contribute to good crush margins in China for mills which have no risk in bloated meals would like to improve processing rate based on large soybean supply. Yet on the other hand, huge losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas stumble delivery of soybean meal, which leads to increased stockpiles of soybean meal and widespread shutdown of plants in mills. That fundamental pressure puts down soybean meal prices. What's added to its pressure is that soaring crude oils after US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement boost oils future, also resulting in traders?active arbitrary of buying oils and selling meals. Whereas, price decline is somehow seen eased and weakened after several days of quick move. On the whole, meals on DCE rebound mildly today, and correspondingly spots of meals are also expected to ramp up if USDA reports tonight are little bit bullish as expected, yet bearish fundamentals may in turn put a cap on its potential rises. Wisely, buyers who are out of stock can make proper replenishment upon bargain hunting. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal edge low, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,580-2,650 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 10-50 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,600 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,660 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,650 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne). Rapeseed meal shorter term will move sideways for one that grave losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas slow down delivery of meals, and for another that rapeseed and soybean imported are sufficiently large based on good crush margins though mass domestic rapeseed supplying is around the corner. Attention should still be paid to China-US talks next week and USDA reports tonight. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal are a tad lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,600-10,700 yuan/tonne; 11,500-11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,200-12,300 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,600 yuan/tonne; 11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 42,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 36,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 5,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 6th, about 1,502,537 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 45.3% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,814,163 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,380 per tonne, USD $1,540 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Given recent poor weather conditions have postponed the recovery of aquaculture, market players mostly switch to a bearish stance seeing accumulation of stockpiles at home, in that fishmeal is to trade weaker in near future. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,430-4,290 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,600 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Market attention is still fixed on trade tensions with regard to imported soybeans. China's Vice Premier, Liu He, will visit Washington next Monday to resume trade talks, the White House said on Monday, after a U.S. delegation led by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin came away from a visit to Beijing last week. Frankly speaking, trade disputes in a short time are unlikely eased in view of great conflicts in between, therefore imported soybean spots on the whole are to move sideways accordingly. If the trade spat is finally resolved, imported soybean will price down further, but price up if heated up, therefore it is necessary to pay close attention to its any new progress. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybean and soybean meal ended overnight trading low given that market commodity investors rush to close positions ahead of U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Monthly Demand and Supply Estimates reports, by striking contrast, US soybean oil largely appreciated attributed to traders' active arbitrage of selling meals and buying oils and soaring crude oil futures. That great improvement of crude oil futures mainly stems from US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear agreement and curtailed stocks of US crude oils, gasoline, refined oils. Accordingly, oils on Dalian Commodity Exchange ramp up further, of which a pronounced rally in palm oil is seen today. Generally, domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots ratchet up tracking futures. Turnover upon lower prices is general, but that upon big rallies is not much. Even though rains in Argentina these days delay soybean harvest progress and cause another 1-1.5 Mln tonnes of soybean losses from the previous 38 Mln tonnes, supply of soybean oil is still assured and demand upon its lower basis still goes better despite widespread idle plants in mills due to delayed shipments of soybean meal at home. And given that chances for a final agreement in talks next week are fairly slim, oils in market are to pick up mildly, such being the case, buyers are suggested to make replenishment on a small scale upon bargain hunting rather than chase high. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,670-5,820 yuan/tonne, most up 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,770-5,780 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,730 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,820 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,670-5,680 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,070 and 5,170 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50-70 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,160-5,170 yuan/tonne, a growth of 60 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,150 yuan/tonne, up 70 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,070 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders and Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,410-6,560 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,805-200; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,450 yuan/tonne). Such bearish factors hover over rapeseed oil as unsatisfactory consumption owing to an impressive price gap between rapeseed oil and its competing oils, soybean oil and palm oil, the projected flows of reserved rapeseed oil before late May, and more than millions of imported rapeseed oil helped by good import margins. On this point, rapeseed meal shorter term is likely to trade sideways when mass domestic rapeseed is to supply the market very soon. Market players should keep an eye on possibly bullish-to-be USDA reports tonight. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 10-22 yuan/tonne further from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne and 1,680-1,685 yuan/tonne for old corn, up 5 yuan/tonne as opposed to yesterday. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 690-700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Generally, corn prices depreciate further in market for one reason that its supply is sufficiently large counted in ongoing corn auction and former traded volumes of old corn, and for another that businesses in the downstream keep cautious about corn purchases and mostly take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy seeing such an overwhelming supply. Otherwise, prices are on the other hand supported in case of less and less supply of new corn and corn of good quality, and have limited downward potential for corn auction in northeastern China is stumbled by slow shipments and traffic congestion, also with starting prices added with premium, basis, and freight and the like. On the whole, corn prices domestically will trade sideways fractionally for the time being. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for imported sorghum go steady, among which US sorghum prices at 2,000-2,220 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,220 yuan/tonne in part, being flat; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,990-2,000 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,450 yuan/tonne and Shandong 2,550 yuan/tonne, both being flat). At the same time, prices for imported barley keep stable despite some downs, about 1,790-1,940 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,790-1,810 yuan/tonne, being flat; Ukrain barley: 1,820 yuan/tonne accroding to Guangdong). It is said that another 7.99 Mln tonnes of corn are to be auctioned on May 10th and 11th next week amid total 22,247,600 tonnes of traded volumes till May 4th, if it turns out to be the case, corn supply is largely on the increase. Falling corn prices still weigh on grains market, particularly, grains like barley today edge down further amid fragile demand in feed sectors. Notably, declining sorghum imports and high costs still give some support and limit the declines, in that market players had better pay attention to latest news for guidance. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.35)