Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 14th

2018-05-14 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 14th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans last Friday fell down, correspondingly, soybean meal today on Dalian Commodity Exchange come off low opens. That domestic soybean meal spots are weighed down with futures, and turnover is still not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,920 to 3,040 yuan/tonne, a drop of 20-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin prices 3,040 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,920-2,960 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,960-3,000 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,940-2,960 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,940-2,960 yuan/tonne). As the Brazilian real versus the US dollar has depreciated by 15% since the high point in late January, farmers in Brazil now have great inclination to soybean sales, thus greatly putting down soybean basis in Brazil. As such, soybean arrivals in the months ahead will be sufficiently large based on reduced costs of imported soybeans and good crush margins. On the other hand, heavy losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas stumble delivery of soybean meal, which leads to increased stockpiles of soybean meal and widespread shutdown of plants in mills. That fundamental pressure no doubt puts down soybean meal prices. On this note, price declines are somehow eased and curbed as soybean extends damage in its harvest time due to the heavy and excessive rains and progress of US-China trade spate remains unknown. Shorter term, soybean meal is to trade sideways mainly, therefore, buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go down, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,460-2,530 yuan/tonne, falling 10-40 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,470 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 10 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,500 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,530 yuan/tonne, falling 20 yuan/tonne). Some mils now have to idle plants owing to overflowing soybean and rapeseed meals, particularly, stockpiles of rapeseed meal in South China last week rose to 47,000 tonnes by 4% on the week. Meantime, in light of domestic rapeseed supplying around the corner and sufficiently large soybean arrivals later, rapeseed meal shorter term is mainly to trade weak, wisely, buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal drop steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal prices for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,500 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 100-200 yuan/tonne over last week; 11,500-11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 100 yuan/tonne against last week; 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down 200 yuan/tonne over last week. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,600 yuan/tonne; 11,700 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 39,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 10th, about 1,656,931 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 49.96% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,659,769 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,380 per tonne, USD $1,540 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Stockpiles on one hand keep accumulating due to constant arrivals of new fishmeal at ports, demand on the other hand is still not much when aquatic raising has not yet been launched across the board, on this point, fishmeal is to trade weaker in near future. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices keep flat at 3,430-4,290 yuan/tonne from last Friday, and GM imported soybean also stays at 3,600-3,670 yuan/tonne. Since trade dispute between China and the US has trouble settling at the very short time, lingering nerves are still among market participants. Shorter term, imported soybean spots have resistance to fall, and fail to experience great ups and downs, in other words, move sideways in accordance with market news when market attention is still fixed on the spat. If the trade spat is finally resolved, imported soybean will price down further, but price up if heated up, 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans and soybean meal last Friday night both depreciated on CBOT on account of uncertainty in US-China trade spate and technical selling like long positions closing before weekend, in striking contrast, US soybean oil priced up under the active arbitrage of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal. Accordingly, beans and oils futures today on Dalian Commodity Exchange move down, with which domestic soybean oil and palm oil spots price down. Traded volumes are still not many though low basis attract some deals. As the real has largely weakened as a result of the US dollar, with exchange rate down 15% since the high point in late January, farmers' inclination to soybean sales greatly putting down soybean basis in Brazil and adding to soybean arrivals in China in the following months based on reduced costs and good crush margins. Such being the case, oils are limited to rebound, particularly, oils are slightly off today. Somehow eased pressure on stockpiles, good demand for low basis, strong support for prices from crushers put a cap on its downward potentials, in detail, stockpiles are eased by prevailing bloated soybean meal in mills and falling soybean crush-- about 1.46 Mln tonnes last week. On the whole, oils spots are more likely to move sideways frequently without big ups and downs, in that buyers can take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy for the time being. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,630-5,780 yuan/tonne, falling 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,740-5,750 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,690 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,630 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,040 and 5,160 yuan/tonne, a decline of 10 yuan/tonne in the minority (Tianjin traders offer 5,150-5,160 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer basis P1809+100 for July-August contracts; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,150 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,040 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,140 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil go steady amid some declines, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,410-6,560 yuan/tonne, some down 10-20 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers basis 1809-200; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,460 yuan/tonne). In general, stockpiles of rapeseed oil in South China and East China increased to 57,000 tonnes by 2% and 242,000 tonnes by 2% on the week, respectively, showing a pronounced supply for the moment. As such, prices for rapeseed oil move sideways tracking futures factored in persisting oils glut and ample soybean and rapeseed arrivals later at ports. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 8-10 yuan/tonne further from last Friday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,745 yuan/tonne, being flat from last Friday, and 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn, up 5 yuan/tonne as opposed to last Friday. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from last Friday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over last Friday. Domestically, corn prices in some regions pick up after traders' mindset to hold onto goods seeing gradual reduction of reserved corn auctioned. Though corn auction is still a normality with another 8 Mln tonnes scheduled on May 17th and 18th, businesses keep cautious about corn purchases seeing such an overwhelming supply. On the whole, corn prices will trade sideways steadily for the time being amid few demand in the downstream and poor vitality to price up. From the medium and long run, gains of year 2017 left basically reach the bottom with tighter and tighter supply of corn of good quality, and provided if feed sectors later have rigid demand for good quality, corn of good quality will take the priority in prices. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, sorghum at ports prices down, among which US sorghum prices at 1,980-2,180 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,180 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai 2,120 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,420 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,530 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,450 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne, Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne, Jilin 2,900 yuan/tonne). At the same time, prices for Australian barley keep stable at about 1,790-1,980 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shandong offers 1,910-1,920 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1,900-1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,810-1,830 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne). It is said that another 7.99 Mln tonnes of corn are to be auctioned on May 10th and 11th next week amid total 22,247,600 tonnes of traded volumes till May 4th, if it turns out to be the case, corn supply is largely on the increase. Falling corn prices still weigh on grains market, particularly, grains like sorghum today edge down further amid fragile demand in feed sectors. Otherwise, barley prices at southern ports ratchet up for importers show their concerns about the unavailable sources of low costs seeing increasing pile-up of barley at China's main ports and high costs of Australian barley in the later period. On the whole, sorghum and barley are to move sideways fractionally amid uncertainty in market. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.34)