Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 15th

2018-05-15 www.cofeed.com
  Today (on May 15th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: a consensus on ZTE issue (Zhongxing Telecommunications Equipment) and tariffs on agricultural commodities is said to be reached, according to foreign media sources. That seemingly eased trade tension greatly boosted US soybeans yesterday and otherwise weighed on China's market. Meals on DCE today move down, with which domestic soybean meal spots price down in a steady pace. Turnover is still not much though lower prices do attract replenishment making. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,900 to 3,020 yuan/tonne, a steady reduction of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 3,020 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,900-2,950 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,930-2,980 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,930-2,950 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,940-2,950 yuan/tonne). As the devaluation of Brazilian real has led to a significant drop in soybean import costs, soybean arrivals to be are sufficiently large based on good crush margins. Yet worthy of noticing, such fundamental pressure further weighs down soybean meal as poor demand in feed sectors, delayed delivery and overall large stockpiles, in detail, stockpiles of meals nationwide come in to at 1.32 Mln tonnes, still up 38% year on year though slightly down 0.1% on the week. Additionally, as soybean extends damage in its harvest time due to the heavy and excessive rains, declines of meal futures on DCE and of meal spots are somehow eased and curbed. Shorter term, soybean meal is to trade sideways in a tight range, therefore, buyers are suggested to take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy, and take chances to make replenishment on a small scale if they are out of stock. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal edge down, among which prices in coastal areas come into at 2,420-2,470 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 10-60 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,460 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,500 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,470 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne). Subject to delayed delivery, more and more mils now have to idle plants owing to overflowing soybean and rapeseed meals. On one hand, attracted by lucrative crush margins, soybean arrivals will be sufficiently large as large devaluation of Brazilian real sets the stage for a significant drop of import costs. On the other hand, domestic rapeseed is to supply the market very soon. Those bearish fundamentals bring down rapeseed meal, and rapeseed meal shorter term is mainly to trade weak for lack of bullish support. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal drop steadily, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,500 yuan/tonne; 11,500-11,600 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000-12,100 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,300 yuan/tonne, down 300 yuan/tonne form yesterday, 11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 43,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 40,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 8,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 13th, about 1,822,754 tonnes of fish have been caught in northern and central Peru in A season of year 2018, accounting for 54.96% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,493,946 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,380 per tonne, USD $1,540 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Though stockpiles keep accumulating at ports, demand is still not much, on this point, fishmeal is to trade weaker in near future for lack of bullish factors. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices keep flat at 3,430-4,290 yuan/tonne from last Friday, and GM imported soybean also stays at 3,600-3,670 yuan/tonne. Since trade dispute between China and the US has trouble settling at the very short time, lingering nerves are still among market participants. Shorter term, imported soybean spots have resistance to fall, and fail to experience great ups and downs, in other words, move sideways in accordance with market news when market attention is still fixed on the spat. If the trade spat is finally resolved, imported soybean will price down further, but price up if heated up, 

    Daily review on oils: boosted by bargain buying and improved demand, US soybeans ended overnight trading high on CBOT, by contrast, US soybean oil closed low due to active arbitrage of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. Accordingly, oils on DCE today move sideways and run above the former closing in real terms. Domestically, soybean oil spots price down in part and palm oil spots trade sideways, meantime total traded volumes are still not many though lower prices still attract deals. As the real has largely weakened, prices for Brazilian soybeans tumble a lot. That falling import costs greatly boost soybean purchases among Chinese buyers, to illustrate, soybean arrivals during May-to-July period are expected to outpace 28.8 Mln tonnes, a large in quantities, helped by good crush margins. Such being the case, oils spots are under pressure. Nevertheless, overflowing soybean meal in mills brings processing capacity down to the lowest, with stockpiles of soybean oil being eased to 1.28 Mln tonnes, and on this point, oils spots otherwise have the resilience to fall amid support for prices from crushers. On the whole, oils spots are more likely to move sideways frequently in a tight range, in that buyers had better take a light position and still keep an eye on the trade spat under way. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,610-5,730 yuan/tonne, part of which fall 20-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,730 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders Y1809-50, Guangzhou traders Y1809-50). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,040 and 5,140 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 5,130-5,140 yuan/tonne, being flat; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P09+100 for July-August contracts; Zhangjiagang traders offer P09+50; Guangzhou 5,040 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,130 yuan/tonne, down10 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,410-6,560 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-180; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-200; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,450 yuan/tonne), turnover is not much. Such bearish factors hover over rapeseed oil as the projected supply of reserved rapeseed oil before late May, more than millions of imported rapeseed oil helped by good import margins, unsatisfactory consumption owing to an impressive price gap between rapeseed oil and its competing oils, soybean oil and palm oil, and accumulating stockpiles both in East China and South China. On this point, rapeseed meal shorter term is likely to trade sideways when mass domestic rapeseed is to supply the market very soon. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices up steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some up 10-20 yuan/tonne further from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, 5 yuan/tonne lower than yesterday, and1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong keep flat at 1,840-1,850 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Domestically, corn prices pick up steadily after traders?mindset to hold onto goods seeing gradual reduction of reserved corn auctioned. Though corn auction is still a normality with another 8 Mln tonnes scheduled on May 17th and 18th, businesses keep cautious about corn purchases seeing such an overwhelming supply. On the whole, corn prices will trade sideways steadily for the time being amid few demand in the downstream and poor vitality to price up by leaps. From the medium and long run, corn supply of good quality becomes tighter and tighter, and provided if feed sectors later have rigid demand for good quality, corn of good quality will take the priority in prices. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, sorghum at ports prices keep down, among which US sorghum prices at 1,980-2,180 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,180 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai 2,120 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,980-2,000 yuan/tonne, while 1,940-1,950 yuan/tonne upon transaction; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,420 yuan/tonne, being flat, Shandong 2,530 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,450 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne, Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 yuan/tonne, Jilin 2,900 yuan/tonne). At the same time, Australian barley prices down in a steady pace at about 1,810-1,980 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,810-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat). It is said that another 7.99 Mln tonnes of corn are to be auctioned on May 10th and 11th next week amid total 22,247,600 tonnes of traded volumes till May 4th, if it turns out to be the case, corn supply is largely on the increase countered in previous traded volumes. Bearish factors like falling corn prices and fragile demand in feed sectors still weigh on grains market, particularly, grains like barley today edge down further. Otherwise, grains prices at ports may somehow be supported seeing falling stockpiles of barley and downsized arrivals of sorghum at China's ports and high import costs in the later period. On the whole, sorghum and barley are to trade weaker and move sideways for the time being.  

(USD $1=CNY 6.36)