Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 18th

2018-05-18 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 18th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans overnight on CBOT fell further, the similar trend going to meals on DCE today. According to market participants, trade tension may be eased after China's Ministry of Commerce moves away former anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on US sorghum. If such, there are bearish for meals on the domestic market, particularly, soybean meal spots price down today and turnover is general on the whole. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,820 to 2,930 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10-30 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,930 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,820-2,900 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,850-2,800 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,850-2,860 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,840-2,870 yuan/tonne). Heavy losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising owing to heavy rains in southern areas stumble consumption of soybean meal. What's worse, low costs of Brazilian soybean pave a way for large imports of soybeans at ports amid good crushing margins on DCE. That no doubt puts pressure on soybean meal spots amid already overwhelming stockpiles. Notwithstanding, a summit of Shanghai Cooperation Organization scheduled in Qingdao in June will cause a machine halt in oilseed processing facilities in Qingdao, Longkou, and Rizhao, Shangdong province from May 30th to June 11th. That will help to deplete soybean meal in mills. Meantime, crushers are disposed to support prices after meal prices reach the nadir, therefore, the falling pace is somehow eased. Wisely, buyers should keep on eye on trade talks under way for guidance, and take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy or make proper replenishment if a inflection point is seen in the declining path. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go steady amid some fluctuations, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,340-2,420 yuan/tonne with a fluctuation of 10 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,360 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,420 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,380 yuan/tonne). Bearish factors still hover above meals market, attributed to increasing idle plants after overflowing meals in mills, considerable imported soybean and rapeseed arrivals at ports amid good crush margins. That burdensome pile-up of meals stems directly from sluggish consumption in end users after huge losses in pigs raising and delayed aquatic raising in time of heavy rains in southern areas. All in all, rapeseed meal shorter term is to trade downward when some domestic rapeseed already supplies the market 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal are a tad lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,300-10,400 yuan/tonne; 11,200-11,500 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,100 yuan/tonne; 11,200 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 41,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 16th, about 69,874 tonnes of fish have been caught in central and northern Peru in A season of year 2018. So far, about 2,000,138 tonnes of fish have been reached, accounting for 60.3% of total quota--3,316,700 tonnes--this season, among which 1,316,562 tonnes remain unfinished. Spot offers in foreign trading (FOB) drop steadily: the fishmeal offer in Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 a tonne, down $ 20 from yesterday and USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down $ 10 as compared to yesterday; the offer in Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Peruvian fishing goes smooth for the time being, with 60% of the total quota finished in the new season. This weighs on Peruvian producers and forces them to price fishmeal down slightly. Additionally, increasing stockpiles domestically and sluggish demand also drag down fishmeal on the market. Shorter term, fishmeal is more likely to trade weak. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans go stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,570-3,750 yuan/tonne, down 20-100 yuan/tonne from yesterday and GM imported soybean come into at 3,610-3,630 yuan/tonne, down 140 yuan/tonne from yesterday. When it comes to soybean performance, US dispute with China is still on the spotlight. To shun away any destructive results from the trade spat, a second-round trade talks is launched theses days between the two biggest economies. In fact, talks under way do not go smooth as expected for US president, Trump, said in the statement that they would reinforce protection on intellectual property for China and other countries have been terribly spoiled in international trade. In his statement, China is also required to cut its trade surplus on US by 200 billion dollars. Such being the case, US soybean overnight moved down further due to lingering nerves on possibly reduced demand on US soybean, as such, soybean spots imported at ports today are also weighed down with languishing prices. Attention should still be paid to new progress of the trade dispute.  

    Daily review on oils: though a second round of talks is launched between US and China to prevent any destructive results in bilateral trade, talks under way are actually not smooth. Alleged strengthened protection on US intellect property and required China's trade surplus cut on US by 200 billion dollars, pointed out by Trump, arouse market concerns about China's downsized demand for US soybeans. Accordingly, US soybeans and soybean meal ended overnight trading low, and soybean oil otherwise were boosted by released arbitrage of buying soybean meal and selling soybean oil. Oils on DCE today rebound impressively, and soybean oil and palm oil spots domestically also price up. Turnover overall is still not much for large rallies in prices suppress turnover and lower prices still attract some deals. Given overflowing soybean meal in mills goes worse due to heavy losses in pigs industry and delayed aquatic raising after heavy rains, stockpiles of soybean oil keep falling under the low processing rate in mills. Helped by good turnover upon lower basis and crushers' support, oils spots are seen trending up tracking futures, and total traded volumes yesterday are said to be around 53,600 tonnes. Otherwise, sufficiently large soybean arrivals during May and July period helped by slashing prices for Brazilian soybeans and good crush margins on DCE still weigh on oils performance. In this case, oils spots shorter term will trade weak overall, therefore buyers had better not chase bids high, but to wait for and focus on the trade talks under way for guidance.  

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,600-5,740 yuan/tonnes, increasing by 40-70 yuan/tonne, (Tianjin traders offer 5,710-5,720 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,670 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders Y1809-40, Guangzhou traders 5,600-5,620 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,080 and 5,180 yuan/tonne, a rise of 50-60 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,160-5,170 yuan/tonne, a growth of 50 yuan/tonne; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,180 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,080 yuan/tonne; Rizhao traders and Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise by leaps and bounds, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,410-6,580 yuan/tonne, increasing by 70-100 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,460 yuan/tonne, up 90 yuan/tonne). As grave losses in pigs industry send more and more mills to idle plants after overflowing meals in mills recently, oils on the market are supported. Notwithstanding, such bearish factors still govern the market of oils as unsatisfactory consumption owing to an impressive price gap between rapeseed oil and its competing oils, soybean oil and palm oil, sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed arrivals and forthcoming domestic rapeseed to supply the market. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is mainly to trade sideways in line with futures. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some moving sideways. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, and 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong come in at 1,860 yuan/tonne, up10 yuan/tonne from yesterday. Stumbled by transportation, delivery of old corn is relatively low though grains left basically reach the bottom, especially, corn of good quality becomes tighter and tighter in supply. On the point, corn prices in some areas edge up factored in recovered demand on the market. Though corn auction forges ahead with another 8 Mln tonnes scheduled on May 24th and 25th, businesses otherwise still keep cautious about corn purchases seeing such an overwhelming supply. On the point, corn prices will trade sideways steadily and fractionally for the time being.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: measures of anti-dumping and anti-subsidy on US sorghum actually do no benefit to the public interest, and according to China's Ministry of Commerce, quite a lot of pigs raisers have to eke out a living after languishing prices of pork recently. If such countermeasures are moved away, imports of US sorghum later will grow again. Particularly, importers today mostly stand on the sidelines and stop to quote including importers fromTianjin, Shandong, Nantong, Shanghai and Guangdong. Prices for domestic sorghum keep firm: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne, Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 and Hinggan League 2,800 yuan/tonne, Jilin 2,900 yuan/tonne. At the same time, prices for Australian barley keep stable at about 1,810-1,980 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,980 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne; Nantong 1,900 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,810-1,830 yuan/tonne, all being flat). Importers are now inclined to hold onto goods and support prices in case of unavailable supply of barley with lower costs when Australian barley remains high in import costs. Additionally, falling corn prices still weigh on barley on the market with long and short positions mixed. Shorter term, barley at ports will trade weak though its prices keep firm today. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.37)