Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 21st

2018-05-21 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 21st), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

       Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans on the Globex today spike impressively as China and the US agree to end the trade dispute and diminish proposed tariffs on products both sides. If such, there are bearish factors for meals futures domestically. Accordingly, meals futures on Dalian Commodity Exchange move down, and soybean meal spots trade sideways in a steady pace. Generally speaking, lower pries do attract some deals. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,820 to 2,920 yuan/tonne, a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne compared with last week (Tianjin prices 2,920 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,850-2,880 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,870-2,900 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,840-2,860 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,820-2,850 yuan/tonne). As soybean harvesting is stumbled by harsh rains over recent weeks, Argentina's soybean crop estimate further cuts to 36 Mln tonnes. Additionally, since the Summit for Shanghai Cooperation Organization is to be held in Qingdao in June, mills in Qingdao, Longkou and Rizhao, all located in Shangdong province are required to close down from May 30th to June 11th, according to a government notice. That do great help to soybean meal consumption, on the point, soybean meal spots have resistance to fall further amid crushers' support for prices. Nevertheless, that pile-up of meals stems directly from sluggish consumption in end users after huge losses in pigs raising largely inflict on meals rises, as a consequence, prices for soybean meal will remain at a low level. Wisely, buyers had better take a light position for the time being. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal drop in a steady pace, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,340-2,410 yuan/tonne, decreasing by 10 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,350 yuan/tonne, with a decline of 10 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,410 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,380 yuan/tonne). Bearish fundamentals still hover above meals market amid light turnover, attributed to slow consumption in meals users and considerable imported soybean and rapeseed arrivals at ports. That sluggish consumption of meals stems directly from huge losses in pigs raising and delayed aquatic raising in time of heavy rains in southern areas. On the point, rapeseed meal shorter term is to trade sideways tracking futures. However, as rapeseed meal last week in South China were shriveled to 44,000 tonnes by 7% on the week, declines of rapeseed meal are somehow eased and limited. Therefore, buyer can for the moment take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy or make marginal replenishment if out of stock. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal drop, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal prices for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne with a reduction of 600-700 yuan/tonne over last week; 10,500-10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 700 yuan/tonne against last week; 11,500-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content, down 200-500 yuan/tonne over last week. Southern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content are 10,000 yuan/tonne, down 100 yuan/tonne from last week, 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content, down 200 yuan/tonne from yesterday; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 35,000 tonnes, Shanghai 42,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 7,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 17th, about 2,027,898 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 61.14% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,288,802 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal holders at ports are depressed to support prices for market demand is still general without big improvement, further hamstrung by pronounced different qualities of fishmeal. There being said, fishmeal on the domestic market has the potential to fall further.  

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: most imported soybeans price up steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices come into at 3,670-3,750 yuan/tonne, up 100 yuan/tonne from last Friday, and GM imported soybean also stays at 3,610-3,630 yuan/tonne. Given China and the U.S. agree to end the trade disputes, US soybeans on the Globex today rebound a lot. That give favorable support to soybean spots imported, as such, importers gain the confidence to price up soybean imported. Crushers are now active in soybean buying seeing good crush margins of imported soybeans, and according to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.5 Mln tonnes in June, 10 Mln tonnes in July and 8.6 Mln tonnes in August. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will inflict on the market. On the whole, imported soybeans for the moment will move on in a steady pace mainly. 

    Daily review on oils: beans on CBOT last Friday night went up, followed by a seemingly resolved trade dispute. On May 19th, China and the United States issued a joint statement on bilateral economic and trade consultations in Washington, saying China and the U.S. would break up the trade spat and diminish former proposed tariffs on both sides. On this point, soybeans on the Globex today spike impressively, yet oils futures on the domestic market are bogged down and pare gains to partly offset rises at last Friday night. Domestically, soybean oil spots mostly price up, no doubt, turnover upon higher offers is still not much and lower offers do attract deals. Though soybean crush last week only amounted to 1.58 Mln tonnes with a relative low processing rate after overflowing soybean meal, supply of oils is not under pressure especially when crude oil futures rise substantially and crushers also have preference to support prices. Generally speaking, US soybeans are to usher a series of rallies in the coming future owing to susceptible soybean planting progress in the Midwest of the U.S. under unholy weather conditions and a revised downward for Argentina's soybean to 36 Mln tonnes hit by harsh rains. That will also give a support to oils performance on the domestic market. Notwithstanding, overall oils glut and large soybean arrivals during May-to-July period will put a cap on oils rallies.Shorter term, oils are to move sideways tracking futures, therefore, market participants had better take a light position.  

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,630-5,760 yuan/tonne, most of which increase by 10-30 yuan/tonne, yet some decrease by 30 yuan/tonne , (Tianjin traders offer 5,740-5,750 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,690 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,630 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,120 and 5,230 yuan/tonne, a rise of 30-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,180-5,190 yuan/tonne, a growth of 30 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offers P1809+90; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,230 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,120 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise greatly, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,550-6,710 yuan/tonne, increasing by 80-150 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 6,450 yuan/tonne, up 80 yuan/tonne). Stockpiles of rapeseed oil in South China and East China last week decreased to 53,000 tonnes by 7% and 234,000 tonnes by 3% on the week, respectively, which gave some support to the rapeseed oil on the market. Notwithstanding, such bearish factors still govern the market of oils as unsatisfactory consumption owing to an impressive price gap between rapeseed oil and its competing oils, soybean oil and palm oil, forthcoming domestic rapeseed to supply the market. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is not likely to rise largely and continuously, therefore precaution should be taken to battle with possible risks therefrom. Wisely, buyers had better not chase high offers.  

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices up steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some moving sideways fractionally. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, and 1,690 yuan/tonne for old corn. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from last Friday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, keeping flat over last Friday. Corn supplying is hamstrung by rainy and cloudy days amid not many gains supply of year 2017, as such, stumbled by challenges like tight shipments and rising freight costs, delivery of corn auctioned is slowed down in some areas. On this point, corn prices go on a strong note. Though auction of reserved corn forges ahead, businesses in the downstream still keep cautious about corn purchases seeing such an overwhelming supply. Shorter term, corn prices are to trade sideways steadily and fractionally for lack of vitality. And from the medium and long run, corn of good quality is probable to price up given businesses have rigid demand amid tighter and tighter supply. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, prices for sorghum at ports plunge a lot, among which US sorghum prices at 1,920-2,120 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,120 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,030 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,920 yuan/tonne, being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,350 yuan/tonne, down 70 yuan/tonne, Shanghai 2,330 yuan/tonne, down 90 yuan/tonne; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne, Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 and Hinggan League 2,800 yuan/tonne, Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne). Prices for Australian barley rise steadily at about 1,810-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,000 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1,900 yuan/tonne, being flat). China's Ministry of Commerce on May 18tth, 2018, issued a document stating that it would drop its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into imports of US sorghum.  Meantime, all the anti-dumping deposits collected pursuant to the announcement No. 38 of 2018 shall be returned in full. If such, imports of US sorghum later will grow again. Yet factored in sluggish feed demand for the present, sorghum at ports have its largely depressed prices today. On the other hand, high cost and short supply of barley at main ports domestically give some support to the performance of barley, to illustrate, barley prices at Tianjin port today pick up. On the whole, gains at ports shorter term will go on a weaker momentum amid lingering uncertainty in market. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.39)