Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 22nd

2018-05-22 www.cofeed.com
 Today (on May 22nd), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans on CBOT overnight rose by leaps as China may import more US soybeans after the end of trade dispute. On the point, there are bearish factors for meals futures domestically. Meals futures today on Dalian Commodity Exchange move down slightly, and soybean meal spots trade sideways in a steady pace. Generally speaking, turnover is not that large though lower pries do attract some deals. Coastal soybean meal prices range from 2,830 to 2,920 yuan/tonne, a fluctuation of 10-20 yuan/tonne compared with yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,920 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,860-2,880 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,890-2,920 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,850-2,890 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,830-2,850 yuan/tonne). As soybean harvest is stumbled by harsh rains over recent weeks, Argentina's soybean crop estimate revise downward further. And since the Summit for Shanghai Cooperation Organization is to be held in Qingdao in June, mills in Qingdao, Longkou and Rizhao, all located in Shangdong province are required to close down from May 30th to June 11th, according to a government notice. That does great help to soybean meal consumption, on the point, soybean meal spots reverse early declines to go steady amid crushers' support for prices. Nevertheless, sluggish consumption in end users after huge losses in pigs raising and delayed aquatic raising in time of heavy rains largely inflict on meals, therefore stockpiles of soybean meal still remain at a high level with a year-on-year 13 percent growth though stockpiles in coastal areas this week are down to 1.15 Mln tonnes by 5% on the week. Additionally, such bearish fundamentals also weigh on soybean meal for the time being as large arrivals at ports later but languishing price offers. Wisely, buyers had better maintain a proper inventory level and make replenishment if out of stock, and meantime, pay attention to US soybean sowing and weather changes. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal basically keep firm, among which prices in coastal areas stand at 2,340-2,410 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,350 yuan/tonne; Guangdong Fuzhiyuan 2,410 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,380 yuan/tonne). Bearish fundamentals still hover above meals market attributed to slow consumption in meals users, part of domestic rapeseed supplying on market and considerable imported soybean and rapeseed arrivals later at ports. That sluggish consumption of meals stems from gloomy pigs industry after huge losses in pigs raising and delayed aquatic raising. On the point, rapeseed meal shorter term is to trade sideways slightly tracking futures for lacking vitality to price up. Therefore, buyer can for the moment take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal are a tad lower, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,500-10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,500-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 42,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 20th, about 2,126,175 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 64.11% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,190,525 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Fishmeal holders are still depressed in sales as overall demand is not largely improved, such the the case, fishmeal is to move weaker for the time being. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans go stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,670-3,750 yuan/tonne, and GM imported soybean keeps flat at 3,610-3,630 yuan/tonne from yesterday. US soybeans on CBOT overnight rose by leaps as China may import more US soybeans after the end of trade dispute, which therefore give favorable support for soybean spots imported. Crushers are now active in soybean buying seeing good crush margins of imported soybeans, and according to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.5 Mln tonnes in June, 10 Mln tonnes in July and 8.6 Mln tonnes in August. Such ample supply of imported soybeans no doubt will inflict on the market. On the whole, imported soybeans for the moment will move on in a steady pace mainly. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans overnight jumped by 2% on CBOT after the end of trade spat, in the meantime, US soybean oil also rose impressive, following a fresh high price of crude oil in contracts since Nov. 26th, which came after a possible US sanctions against Iran, Venezuela, and other major oil-producing countries to tighten supply of crude oil. Yet oils futures on the domestic market are bogged down and experience volatility for the bearish sides derive from the eased trade tension. Domestically, soybean oil spots today mostly price down, palm oil experience volatility partly, no doubt, turnover is not much when buyers are cautious about buying. Though soybean crush last week only amounted to 1.58 Mln tonnes, soybean meal is still bloated in mills, therefore, oils have litter pressure on supply sides. Additionally, traders prefer buying oils and selling meals when crude oil futures rise substantially, on the point, oils futures domestically have resistance to decline, and the patter for stronger oils will go forward. Notwithstanding, overall oils glut and large soybean arrivals, around 28 Mln tonne, during May-to-July period will inflict on oils performance. Shorter term, oils are to move sideways frequently tracking futures, therefore market participants had better take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy.  

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,600-5,760 yuan/tonne, most falling 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,710-5,720 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,600 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,100 and 5,220 yuan/tonne, a variation of 10-20 yuan/tonne in part (Tianjin traders offer 5,160-5,170 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P1809+90; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,220 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tinne; Guangzhou 5,100 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,180 yuan/tonne, being flat). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise greatly, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,590-6,750 yuan/tonne, increasing by 20-50 yuan/tonne (Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Though stockpile of rapeseed oil and soybean oil are falling down the road amid crushers' support for prices, such bearish factors still govern the market of oils as unsatisfactory consumption owing to an impressive price gap between rapeseed oil and its competing oils, soybean oil and palm oil, forthcoming domestic rapeseed to supply the market and possible over one million tonnes of imported rapeseed attracted by good import margins. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is not likely to rise largely and continuously, therefore precaution should be taken to battle with possible risks therefrom. Wisely, buyers had better not chase high offers.  

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, most domestic corn prices steadily where some price up. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, unchanged from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, and 1,690-1,700 yuan/tonne for old corn. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, unchanged from yesterday. To a large extent, corn supplying fails to meet recovered corn demand in some businesses as grains of year 2017 left are not many, and there being said, corn delivery is stumbled by challenges like tight shipments, rising freight costs and checks against overload. On this point, corn prices on the domestic market go stable with strong momentum to rise. Though auction of reserved corn forges ahead, businesses in the downstream still keep cautious about corn purchases seeing such an overwhelming supply and prefer a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. Shorter term, corn has little vitality to price up under bearish fundamentals. In the medium term, deep processors projecting to expand processing capacity and some businesses still have rigid demand for amid tighter supply of corn in good quality. Therefore, corn of good quality from the long run is probable to price up, on the point, attention should still be paid to turnover of corn auctioned.  

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, sorghum at ports continues to plunge, among which US sorghum prices at 1,920-2,120 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,110-2,120 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Nantong 2,000-2,030 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,920 yuan/tonne, being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Shanghai 2,330 yuan/tonne, being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 and Hinggan League 2,760 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne). Prices for Australian barley drop steadily at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1880-1,900 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,810-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). China's Ministry of Commerce on May 18tth, 2018, issued a document stating that it would drop its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into imports of US sorghum. Meantime, all the anti-dumping deposits collected pursuant to the announcement No. 38 of 2018 shall be returned in full. If such, imports of US sorghum later will grow again. Yet factored in sluggish feed demand for the present, gains at ports are weighed down. In addition, idle plants in winery are on the increase when businesses have little interest in replenishment making, such being the case, grains at some ports price down further. Shorter term, grains at ports are mainly to trade weaker.  

(USD $1=CNY 6.37)