Today is 12/22/2024

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 24th

2018-05-24 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 24th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange continue to rise, following rising US soybeans on CBOT overnight, and with the gradual increase of meals on DCE, some crushers further raise meals prices. Accordingly, soybean meal spots price up and lower prices still attract deals. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,850 to 2,980 yuan/tonne, a rise of 20-50 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,980 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,910-2,960 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,940-2,960 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,900-2,930 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,920-2,930 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,850-2,870 yuan/tonne). As Sinograin makes an inquiry of US beans for the first time since April, foreign media point out that China is possible to buy up to 10 Mln tonnes of US beans to replenish its state reserves, therefore US soybeans are sent to a two-and-a-half week high. Since the SCO Summit is scheduled in Qingdao in June, mills in Qingdao, Longkou and Rizhao are required to close down during May 30thand June 11th. That does help to soybean meal consumption, on the point. Additionally, fueled by gradually recovered pigs prices and growing aquatic breeding in southern areas, turnover of soybean meal recently takes a favorable turn upon crushers' support. Shorter term, soybean meal will move upward in line with US soybeans when such bearish factors fade away as large arrivals at ports and high meal stockpiles. Wisely, buyers had better maintain a safe inventory level or stand by if they made replenishment the other day. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal pick up steadily, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,360-2,490 yuan/tonne with a rise of 10-30 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,360 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,480 yuan/tonne, up 30 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne, growing by 20 yuan/tonne). Shorter term, rapeseed meal is expected to experience a series of rallies if factored in falling stockpiles of rapeseed meal and soybean meal in coastal areas, gradually recovered pigs prices and growing aquatic breeding in southern areas when crushers have great inclination to support meals. Whereas, possibly abolished “anti-subsidy and anti-dumping” on DDGS and sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed at ports may dwarf demand for some rapeseed meal. In this case, the potential upward moves of rapeseed meal are still limited. Buyers had better make replenishment upon bargain hunting if there is a stock shortage. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,500-10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,500-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 42,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 22nd, about 2,199,198 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 66.31% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,117,502 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Demand for fishmeal is still not that large with its distinct quality gap on the domestic market. Shorter term, fishmeal will remain weak if there are little bullish factors domestically. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans decline steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,570-3,730 yuan/tonne, down 20-100 yuan/tonne from yesterday and GM imported soybean come into at 3,610-3,630 yuan/tonne, unchanged from yesterday. Crushers are now active in soybean buying seeing good crush margins of imported soybeans, and according to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.5 Mln tonnes in June, 10 Mln tonnes in July and 8.6 Mln tonnes in August. Such ample soybeans bring about bearish pressure on its market. According to foreign media, Sinograin's first inquiry for US soybean since April would be the signal to buy up to 10 Mln tonnes of US soybeans to replenish its reserves. That sends US soybeans to a two-and-a-half week high and also gives support to imported soybean spots. On the whole, imported soybeans for the moment will move on in a steady pace mainly. 

    Daily review on oils: US beans ended overnight trading higher for market calculates that China will again turns to US soybeans after the relieved trade tension. Accordingly, beans and oils today on Dalian Commodity Exchange go up mildly, domestically, soybean oil and palm oil spots also rebound in line with futures, and turnover upon lower prices goes better. Oils spots are to trade upward mildly tracking futures as the surge of international crude oil is to expand demand for vegetable oils, and for another Sinograin's inquiry for US soybeans this week also gives some support to gradually rallying US soybeans when bloated meals in mills still persist. Yet with ample oils supply and large soybean arrivals at port in the months ahead, oils are limited to rebound by leaps, instead, oils are likely to move sideways frequently with futures. Buyers who run out of stock can make replenishment on a small scale. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stand at 5,620-5,780 yuan/tonne, most rising by 10-30 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,720-5,730 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,780 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,620 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,100 and 5,180 yuan/tonne, a growth of 10-30 yuan/tonne mostly (Tianjin traders offer 5,170-5,180 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P1809+90; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,180 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangzhou 5,100-5,110 yuan/tonne, up 20 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders 5,180 yuan/tonne, up 10 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil rise, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,620-6,780 yuan/tonne, increasing by 50-70 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200 and Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220 for January delivery; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Rapeseed oil futures lead in the market and have the advantage over two other main oils, soybean oil and palm oil, when rapeseed oil reserved is basically auctioned. Yet rallying prices of rapeseed oil will stumble its consumption once price gap between it and other two main oils expands. Furthermore, ample soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil imported at ports during May-to-July period, and upcoming domestic rapeseed to supply the market still weigh on rapeseed oils market. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways frequently tracking futures, therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy.  

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some down 6-8 yuan/tonne further from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, and 1,690-1,700 yuan/tonne for old corn, both unchanged from yesterday. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, unchanged from yesterday. Though auction of reserved corn forges ahead, around 8 Mln tonnes projected next week, businesses in the downstream still keep cautious about corn purchases amid such overwhelming supply. On the point, corn performance is weighed on factored in sluggish demand. In addition, with growing corn supply in some Shandong businesses, corn buying prices are further revised down. Notwithstanding, grains of year 2017 left are not many, especially gains of good quality, corn prices shorter term are not to drop a lot, but to remain stable amid narrowed volatility when corn of good quality has the advantage in auction. From the medium and long run, rigid demand for good corn and worrisome quality may somehow send good corn to price up. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, sorghum at ports reverses early declines to end stable, among which US sorghum prices at 1,890-2,120 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,110-2,120 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 2,000-2,030 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,890-1,900 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,330 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai 2,330 yuan/tonne, being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,860 yuan/tonne, being flat; Harbin 2,600 yuan/tonne for poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 and Hinggan League 2,760 yuan/tonne; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne). Prices for Australian barley keep firm at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,000 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1880-1,900 yuan/tonne, being flat; Guangdong 1,800-1,830 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). Given China's Ministry of Commerce drops its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into imports of US sorghum, US sorghum later in China will expand if former vessels delayed and stuck arrive at ports one after another. Bearish factors like sluggish demand for feed and unsatisfactory sales of sorghum and barley still inflict on grains at ports, nevertheless, tighter supply and high import costs of sorghum and barley may give some support to the market. That is to say, market participants had better wait for latest news for guidance given grains shorter term at ports are mainly to trade weaker. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.38)