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Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 25th

2018-05-25 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 25th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans ended overnight trading lower due to profit taking, whereas, meals on Dalian Commodity Exchange today ramp up though actually run below former closing level. Domestically, soybean meal spots mostly go stable amid some rises. Generally speaking, turnover turns light amid volatile futures since buyers have made replenishment the other day. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,840 to 2,980 yuan/tonne, a rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne against yesterday (Tianjin prices 2,980 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,930-2,960 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,940-2,960 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,880-2,900 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,880-2,900 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,840-2,870 yuan/tonne). Given mills in Shandong province are required to close down during May 30thand June 11th for the SCO Summit, supply pressure on soybean meal is expected to ease. And fueled by gradually recovered pigs prices and growing aquatic breeding in southern areas, soybean meal prices are fueled. There being said, shorter term, soybean meal will move upward in line with US soybeans when such bearish factors as large arrivals at ports and high meal stockpiles stumble its rallies, and on the other hand, appetite for meals in the downstream is likely to go better following gradually recovered US soybeans after eased China-US trade tension. On June 2nd, the U.S. Secretary of Commerce will visit China to put the trade consensus into practice. Wisely, buyers are suggested to stand by rather than chase high bids if they have made replenishment the other day. 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go steady, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,430-2,450 yuan/tonne with a variation of 10-50 yuan/tonne over yesterday (Guangxi offers 2,450 yuan/tonne, up 50 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,470 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne, being flat). Rapeseed meal rebounds mildly, mainly attributed to falling stockpiles of rapeseed meal and soybean meal in coastal areas, gradually recovered pigs prices and growing aquatic breeding in southern areas. Whereas, sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed at ports may otherwise dwarf the rallies in rapeseed meal. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,500-10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,500-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 42,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 6,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 23rd, about 2,264,656 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 68.28% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,052,044 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Given fishmeal of good quality on domestic market become less and less amid eased stockpile gains of fishmeal nationwide, fishmeal performance shorter term basically turn stable. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans decline steadily, where non-GM imported soybean prices at 3,570-3,730 yuan/tonne, down 20-100 yuan/tonne from yesterday and GM imported soybean come into at 3,610-3,630 yuan/tonne, unchanged from yesterday. Crushers are now active in soybean buying seeing good crush margins of imported soybeans, and according to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.5 Mln tonnes in June, 10 Mln tonnes in July and 8.6 Mln tonnes in August. Such ample soybeans bring about bearish pressure on its market. According to foreign media, Sinograin's first inquiry for US soybean since April would be the signal to buy up to 10 Mln tonnes of US soybeans to replenish its reserves. That sends US soybeans to a two-and-a-half week high and also gives support to imported soybean spots. On the whole, imported soybeans for the moment will move on in a steady pace mainly. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans and soybean meal revised early gains to end lower overnight for long positions closing basically offset early rallying US soybean after China's decision to buy US products. By contrast, US soybean oil was fueled by active arbitrage of buying soybean oil and selling soybean meal. Accordingly, oils futures today on Dalian Commodity Exchange continue to move sideways, and domestically, part of soybean oil and palm oil spots price down. Still, turnover is not much. As China is deemed to purchase 264,000 tonnes of US soybeans with at least 12 or 15 vessels, according to market calculation, US soybeans shorter term will be on a strong note. In addition, given operation rate remains low when bloated soybean meal persists domestically, oils have greater resistance to fall amid crushers’ support. Nevertheless, sufficiently large soybean arrivals in the following months and ample oils supply may somehow put a cap on the rallying performance. On the whole, oils are to trade sideways frequently tracking futures, therefore, businesses may as well take a light position and take a hand-to-mouth buying strategy. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,620-5,760 yuan/tonne, part of which decrease by 10-30 yuan/ton, yet some increase by 10 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,710-5,720 yuan/ton, Rizhao traders 5,680 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,760 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,620 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 5,040 and 5,170 yuan/tonne, most down 10-40 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,160-5,170 yuan/tonne, a drop of 10 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer P1809+90; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,160 yuan/tonne, a decline of 20 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 5,040 yuan/tonne; Xiamen 5,170 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, prices for imported rapeseed oil pick up, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,620-6,780 yuan/tonne, increasing by 10-20 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Rapeseed oil futures lead in the market and have the advantage over two other main oils, soybean oil and palm oil, when targeted distribution of rapeseed oil reserved is basically finished in the first half of year 2018. Yet rallying prices of rapeseed oil will stumble its consumption once price gap between it and other two main oils expands.Furthermore, ample soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil imported at ports during May-to-July period, and upcoming domestic rapeseed to supply the market still weigh on rapeseed oils market. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways frequently tracking futures, therefore buyers had better take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, prices for most domestic corn remain stable, some fluctuating in a tight range. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some slightly down 4-8 yuan/tonne from yesterday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,740 yuan/tonne, and 1,690-1,700 yuan/tonne for old corn. While drying new corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, and 1,600-1,680 yuan/tonne for old corn, unchanged from yesterday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn and 1,810 yuan/tonne for third-class old corn. Though corn supply is sufficiently ample on the market countered in already auctioned corn supply and another 8 Mln tonnes to be auctioned next week, appetite for corn feed is still not that large industrially. On the point, corn prices are weighed on when supply outpaces demand, especially, corn buying prices offered by some Shandong businesses are revised lower in recent days. Notwithstanding, grains of year 2017 left are not many, especially gains of good quality, corn prices shorter term are not to drop or rise a lot, but to remain stable amid narrowed volatility when corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and freight costs in northeastern areas are also on the rise. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, price cuts of imported sorghum at ports expand, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,890-2,050 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,050 yuan/tonne, down 70 yuan/tonne, yet some prices are negotiable upon transaction; Nantong 1,980 yuan/tonne, down 50 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,890-1,900 yuan/tonne, being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,300 yuan/tonne, down 60 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai 2,330 yuan/tonne, being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne, down 40 yuan/tonne, Harbin 2,560 yuan/tonne for poorer quality, down 40 yuan/tonne; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000 and Hinggan League 2,760 yuan/tonne; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne). Prices for Australian barley go steady at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 2,000 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). Given China's Ministry of Commerce drops its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into imports of US sorghum, US sorghum later in China will significantly expand if former vessels delayed and stuck arrive at ports one after another. Bearish factors like sluggish demand for feed still inflict on sorghum at ports. In addition, idle plants in winery are on the increase when businesses have little interest in replenishment making, such being the case, grains at ports are seen further weighed on. As importers who have stocks at hand hold a bearish attitude toward after-market trading amid their inclination to price cuts for good sales, sorghum prices today at some ports experience steep declines. Shorter term, grains at ports are mainly to trade weaker, therefore market participants had better wait for latest news for guidance.  

(USD $1=CNY 6.39)