Today is 06/26/2025

Market for Chinese Main Agricultural Commodities on May 28th

2018-05-28 www.cofeed.com
    Today (on May 28th), trends for Chinese animal and plant protein, oils & oilseeds and grains are shown as follows: 

Plant protein: 

    Daily review on soybean meal: US soybeans ended last Friday trading higher as China bought up to 0.5 Mln tonnes of US soybeans and no less than three vessels of old soybeans after the reconciliation between China and the U.S.. Accordingly, meals futures on DCE ramp up, soybean meal spots domestically also rise steadily, and turnover is still not much. Soybean meal prices in coastal areas range from 2,860 to 2,980 yuan/tonne, a steady rise of 10-20 yuan/tonne against last week (Tianjin prices 2,980 yuan/tonne, Shandong 2,930-2,960 yuan/tonne, Jiangsu 2,920-2,970 yuan/tonne, Dongguan 2,900-2,920 yuan/tonne, Guangxi 2,880-2,900 yuan/tonne, Fujian 2,850-2,870 yuan/tonne). Given most mills in Shandong province have to suspend operation about 13 days for SCO Summit in June, supply pressure on soybean meal is expected to ease. And fueled by growing aquatic breeding in southern areas, soybean meal prices up further amid crushers' support. Yet viewed from medium and long perspectives, soybean meal will be put under a bearish stance when China imports large volumes of soybeans both from Brazil and the U.S., that is to say, large soybean supply based on assured operation rate will drag down its prices especially when pigs raising is not promising amid great losses. Generally, there is limited additional upward potential for soybean meal prices unless unexpected bad weather happens in US growing areas. Wisely, buyers are suggested to stand by if they have made replenishment last week or make replenishment when price tumble as meals on DCE today slow down its rallying pace after one-week rises.  

    Daily review on imported rapeseed meal: today, prices for imported rapeseed meal go steady, among which prices in coastal areas stay at 2,430-2,470 yuan/tonne (Guangxi offers 2,450 yuan/tonne; Fuzhiyuan in Dongguan, Guangdong 2,470 yuan/tonne; Chinatex in Zhangzhou, Fujian 2,450 yuan/tonne, all being flat). Though recovered demand for rapeseed meal after growing aquatic breeding in southern areas and falling stockpiles-- down to 43,000 tonnes by 2% in South China last week- boosts rapeseed meal shorter term, sufficiently large soybean and rapeseed at ports may otherwise dwarf the rallies in rapeseed meal. 

    Daily review on fishmeal: today, prices for imported fishmeal keep firm, yet prices are negotiable upon transaction and shipments at ports are general. Northern ports: fishmeal price for Peru ordinary SD with 65% protein content is 9,600-9,800 yuan/tonne; 10,500-10,800 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 11,500-11,800 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Southern ports: fishmeal price for ordinary SD with 65% protein content in Peru is 10,000 yuan/tonne; 11,000 yuan/tonne for Japanese SD with 67% protein content; 12,000 yuan/tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content. Port stocks: Hangpu has 44,000 tonnes, Fuzhou 34,000 tonnes, Shanghai 43,000 tonnes, Tianjin 1,000 tonnes, Dalian 5,000 tonnes, Fangchenggang 1,000 tonnes, and other ports 4,000 tonnes. Fishing: till May 24th, about 2,312,133 tonnes of fish have been caught in A season of year 2018, accounting for 69.71% of the total volume; fishing quota for this season is 3,316,700 tonnes, among which 1,004,567 tonnes remain unfinished. Spots offers (FOB) in the outer remain stable, in detail, the fishmeal offer for Peru's ordinary SD with 65% protein content stays at USD $1,360 per tonne, USD $1,530 per tonne for super steam fishmeal with 68% protein content; the offer for Chile ordinary SD with 65% protein content is USD $1,510 per tonne, USD $1,610 per tonne for excellent fishmeal with 68% protein content. Slow pile-up of fishmeal at China's ports due to unavailable new-season fishmeal and not much high-quality fishmeal for the present boost fishmeal on the domestic market, all in all, fishmeal performance shorter term basically go stable. 

Oils & Oilseeds: 

    Daily review on soybeans: prices for most imported soybeans turn stable, where non-GM imported soybean prices keep flat at 3,570-3,730 yuan/tonne from last Friday, and GM imported soybean also stays at 3,610-3,630 yuan/tonne. Crushers are now active in soybean buying seeing good crush margins of imported soybeans, and according to Cofeed latest probe, soybean arrival later at ports will be sufficiently large, in detail, soybean arrival of imports are forecast to be 9.042 Mln tonnes with total 141 vessels in May, 9.4 Mln tonnes in June, 9.5 Mln tonnes in July. Though bearish pressure hovers over imported soybeans attributed greatly to the ample supply, US soybeans ended last Friday trading higher given China bought up to 0.5 Mln tonnes of US soybeans and at least three vessels of old soybeans after reconciliation of the trade spat. That rising import costs thereby in return give favorable support to the market of soybeans imported. Shorter term, imported soybeans for distribution are expected to move sideways steadily. In the medium an long run, China may rely more on soybean imports from the U.S. in its way to expand imports of US products after the end of trade spat provided if China's imports of Brazilian soybean reach the ceiling and Argentina's soybeans losses are up to 20 Mln tonnes. If such, market for imported soybeans mainly depends on US soybeans in the growing period. 

    Daily review on oils: US soybeans and soybean meal appreciated on CBOT last Friday night on account that a relieved trade tension had rekindled China's new appetite for US products. Yet, US soybean oil went down after declining crude oil. There being said, oils futures on DCE today pare gains after low opens, and domestically, soybean oil and palm oil spots price down tracking futures. Ample supply of oils based on sufficiently large soybean arrivals in the following months still weighs on oils performance. Helped by China's recovered demand for soybeans, Brazilian truckers strike and Argentine tariff cut scheme for frozen soybean export, US soybeans shorter term are on a strong note. And as most mills in Shandong province have to suspend operation about 13 days for the sake of SCO summit, operation rate in the following two weeks will keep low in soybean meal-bloated mills, if such, oils have strong resistance and limitation to fall amid crushers' support. On the whole, oils spots will keep rangebound frequently amid mixed long and short positions. Wisely, businesses had better maintain a light position and take a hand-to-mouth purchasing strategy. 

    Today's soybean oil: main prices for GB grade-one soybean oil in coastal areas stay at 5,570-5,720 yuan/tonne, falling 30-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,680-5,690 yuan/tonne, Rizhao traders 5,660 yuan/tonne, Zhangjiagang traders 5,720 yuan/tonne, Guangzhou traders 5,570-5,580 yuan/tonne). 

    Today's palm oil: 24-degree palm oil prices in coastal areas are mostly between 4,970 and 5,100 yuan/tonne, most declining by 40-50 yuan/tonne (Tianjin traders offer 5,090-5,100 yuan/tonne, a drop of 40 yuan/tonne; Huanghai traders in Rizhao offer basis P1809+70; Zhangjiagang traders offer 5,100 yuan/tonne, a decline of 40 yuan/tonne; Guangzhou 4,970-4,990 yuan/tonne; Xiamen traders have not reported). 

    Daily review on imported rapeseed oil: today, imported rapeseed oil prices down, among which prices in coastal areas are 6,550-6,710 yuan/tonne, down 20-50 yuan/tonne (Basis: Maple in Fangchenggang, Guangxi offers 1809-200; Yinxiang in Xiamen, Fujian offers 1,809-220; Shenheng in Dongguan, Guangdong offers 1809-200). Rapeseed oil futures theses days continue to lead in the market with released fundamental pressure when distribution of large rapeseed oil reserved is almost finished. Yet rallying prices of rapeseed oil still stumble its consumption given price gap between it and other two main oils expands. Furthermore, ample soybeans, rapeseed and rapeseed oil imported at ports in the days ahead, and upcoming domestic rapeseed to supply the market still weigh on rapeseed oils market, especially, rapeseed oil today pares slight gains after its stockpiles last week in South China climbed to 63,000 tonnes by 17% on the week. Shorter term, rapeseed oil is to trade sideways frequently tracking futures. 

Grains: 

    Daily review on corn: today, domestic corn prices edge low steadily. Corn buying prices in Shandong deep processors mostly stay at 1,820-1,920 yuan/tonne, some down 10-30 yuan/tonne further from last Friday. While main purchasing prices offered at Jinzhou port, Liaoning come into at 1,730 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday, and 1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn, up 10-20 yuan/tonne as opposed to last Friday. While drying corn prices of Liaoning and Jilin (moisture ≤ 15%, volume weight 700 g/L) at Bayuquan port are pegged at 1,720 yuan/tonne, keeing flat; 1,760-1,770 yuan/tonne for naturally dried corn (moisture 14.5%, volume weight 720-740 g/L), up 10 yuan/tonne from last Friday; 1,620-1,710 yuan/tonne for old corn (volume weight 650-720 g/L, mildew 3-4), up 20 yuan/tonne from last Friday. Corn prices at Shekou port, Guangdong stay at 1,860 yuan/tonne, 1,840 yuan/tonne for second-class old corn and 1,810 yuan/tonne for third-class old corn, all unchanged. Corn supply is sufficiently ample on the market countered in already traded corn supply and ongoing dominant corn auction, and there being said, grains supplying keep larger and larger when some hoarders engage themselves in grains selling seeing approaching barley harvest in North China and Huanghuai areas. Corn consumption otherwise in the downstream is relatively sluggish despite overwhelmingly ample supply, therefore, corn prices are weighed on. Whereas, grains of year 2017 left are not many, especially gains of good quality, such being the case, corn prices shorter term are not to drop significantly, but to remain stable amid narrowed volatility when corn of good quality has the advantage in auction and freight costs in northeastern areas are also on the rise. 

    Daily review on sorghum and barley: today, price cuts of imported sorghum at ports expand, among which US sorghum prices basically come into at 1,890-2,050 yuan/tonne (US sorghum: Tianjin 2,050 yuan/tonne, yet some prices are negotiable upon transaction; Nantong 1,950 yuan/tonne, down 30 yuan/tonne; Shanghai stops to report; Guangdong 1,890-1,900 yuan/tonne, being flat; Australian sorghum: Tianjin offers 2,280 yuan/tonne, down 20 yuan/tonne; Shandong 2,330-2,350 yuan/tonne, being flat; Shanghai 2,330 yuan/tonne, being flat; domestic sorghum: Heilongjiang offer 2,960 yuan/tonne, Harbin 2,560 yuan/tonne for poorer quality; Chifeng in Inner Mongolia offer 3,000; Jilin 2,720 yuan/tonne; Weinan in Shaanxi 3,300 yuan/tonne). Prices for Australian barley drop steadily at about 1,800-2,000 yuan/tonne (Tianjin offers 1,990-2,000 yuan/tonne, down 10 yuan/tonne; Shandong offers 1,910 yuan/tonne, being flat; Nantong 1,880-1,900 yuan/tonne; Guangdong 1,800-1,830 yuan/tonne, being flat; Canadian barley: Nantong 1,880 yuan/tonne). Given China's Ministry of Commerce drops its anti-dumping and anti-subsidy probe into imports of US sorghum, US sorghum later in China will significantly expand if former vessels delayed and stuck arrive at ports one after another. Bearish factors like sluggish demand for feed still inflict on sorghum at ports. In addition, idle plants in winery are on the increase when businesses have little interest in replenishment making, such being the case, grains at ports are seen further weighed on. Though sorghum prices today at some ports further drop, high costs of barley may somehow give support to the market and limit its declines. Shorter term, grains at ports are mainly to trade weaker, therefore market participants had better wait for latest news for guidance. 

(USD $1=CNY 6.40)